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MLB Awards: Should a pitcher win the NL MVP Award?

By BobMueller |
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 08: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals pitches to Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning of game one of a doubleheader at Nationals Park on September 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. Max Scherzer #31 pitched a complete game as the Nationals won 10-3. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 08: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals pitches to Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning of game one of a doubleheader at Nationals Park on September 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. Max Scherzer #31 pitched a complete game as the Nationals won 10-3. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Based on advanced metrics the three best players in the NL have been pitchers, but will it be enough for one to win the NL MVP Award when MLB awards are announced?

It’s not unheard of in MLB awards for a pitcher to win the MVP Award, but it’s rare. In the last 50 years, just two National League pitchers have won the MVP Award. The American League hurlers have fared a bit better, with seven pitchers winning the trophy during that time.

The last time a pitcher won the MVP Award in both leagues was 50 years ago, in 1968. Bob Gibson went 22-9, with a 1.12 ERA for the Cardinals in the NL, while Denny McLain was 31-6, with a 1.96 ERA for the Tigers in the AL. It’s hard to have an ERA lower than Gibson’s in 1968. He was just incredible. McLain, for his part, is the last pitcher to win 30 or more games in a season.

The only NL pitcher since Gibson to win the MVP Award in the last 50 years was Clayton Kershaw, in 2014. He was 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA. Based on past precedent, it looks like it takes an epic season for a National League pitcher to be named MVP.

With this in mind, could a pitcher win the NL MVP Award this MLB awards season? The advanced numbers say yes, a pitcher not only COULD win the MVP, a pitcher SHOULD win the MVP. In fact, if you have faith in the multiple versions of WAR (and WARP), the best three players in the NL have been pitchers.

Based on an average of Fangraphs WAR, Baseball-Reference WAR, and Baseball Prospectus WARP, the top three players in the NL have been Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola. Scherzer checks in with an average of 7.6. deGrom is at 7.3. Nola brings up the rear of this trio, with an average of 6.9.

Here are the top 10 NL players based on an average of the three metrics:

7.6—SP Max Scherzer, Nationals
7.3—SP Jacob deGrom, Nets
6.9—SP Aaron Nola, Phillies
5.7—1B Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
5.7—CF Lorenzo Cain, Brewers
5.3—LF Christian Yelich, Brewers
5.3—1B Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
5.2—SP Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks
5.2—1B Freddie Freeman, Braves
5.1—2B Javier Baez, Cubs

Three pitchers are at the top of the list, then there’s a gap of more than a win to the top two position players, Goldschmidt and Cain. It should be noted that this does not include Jacob deGrom’s start on Tuesday. For the 26th consecutive time, deGrom allowed three or fewer runs, which breaks the single-season record previously held by Leslie Cole in 1910.

Of course, the Mets still lost the game and deGrom has a record of 8-9 despite a 1.71 ERA. It’s ridiculous. The Mets are ridiculous. deGrom is lined up to get three more starts this season. He’s scheduled to face the Red Sox in Boston on September 16, then the Nationals in Washington on the 21st, and a final start against the Braves at home on the 27th. He could easily finish the year with fewer than 10 wins despite an ERA under 2.00.

Scherzer, on the other hand, currently has 17 wins and a 2.31 ERA. If he can win his last three starts, he would have the cachet of a 20-game winner to add to his resume. He’s also 29 strikeouts away from 300 for the season. Twenty wins, 300 strikeouts, and a low 2.00s ERA could be enough to land him the NL Cy Young and the NL MVP.

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    • Aaron Nola won’t have the 300 strikeouts, but he could get to 20 wins. He’s sitting on 16 and has four starts left. His ERA is right there with Scherzer, at 2.29. He’s also the only pitcher of the three still in the hunt for a playoff spot, although the Phillies’ postseason chances are dwindling day-by-day.

    I mention wins because voters still look at wins when considering MLB awards for starting pitchers. They’ve become less important than they once were, but they still factor into the voting. The different versions of WAR (and WARP) only look at the performance of the pitcher, so wins don’t factor into the equation. As any New York Mets fan can tell you, wins are very dependent on the team’s offense.

    Despite Scherzer, deGrom, and Nola sitting at the top of the rankings in the advanced metrics, they face an uphill climb to win the NL MVP Award. One thing that may help them is that there’s no NL position player having a transcendent season. The group of position players below the three pitchers—Goldschmidt, Cain, Yelich, Carpenter, Freeman, Baez—have yet to distinguish themselves from the others.

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    If a pitcher has a chance to win the NL MVP Award during MLB awards season, this is the year it could happen. Three more starts each for Scherzer and deGrom could be the deciding factors. deGrom just made his case with another impressive performance on Tuesday. Scherzer will toe the slab in Atlanta on Friday.

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