MLB Playoffs: All tied up – most confounding postseason scenarios

As the MLB playoffs draw near, we may have to spend an extra day or two ironing out ties, possibly ending in something exciting but rare in the game – game 163

It’s been 11 seasons since Major League Baseball was required to dust off its rules for settling postseason ties. But with two weeks remaining before the MLB playoffs, it may have to do so in 2018 – and possibly more than once.

In the American League, the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics appear destined to meet in the wild card game Oct. 3. But the serious prospect looms that the teams might finish with identical records, necessitating a deep dip into the tie-breaking procedures to determine whether that wild card game is played in New York or Oakland to kick off the MLB playoffs.

In the National League, meanwhile, the prospect of a tie exists virtually across the landscape, but especially in the West, where Colorado and Los Angeles stand separated by just one-half game entering play Monday night. If those teams finish deadlocked, a playoff game would be necessary Oct. 1 to determine the division champion, the loser of that game possibly – but not assuredly – receiving a wild card berth.

Here’s a detailed look at the most likely deadlocks, and how they could develop:

AL wild card

As of the morning of Sept. 17, the Yankees are 91-58, one and one-half games ahead of the A’s, at 90-60. But the Yankees have far and away the tougher finishing schedule, including six with the division-leading Red Sox and four others against the surging Tampa Bay Rays. New York is a combined 12-16 against those two division opponents. (The Yankees also have a three-game series against the tail-end Orioles.)   The Athletics, by contrast, finish with six games against the Angels, and three each against the Twins and Mariners.  Oakland is only 16-17 against those three teams, but most of those 17 losses were accrued before the All-Star break. Oakland is 35-18 since then.

Give the Yankees a sweep of the Orioles and a split in Tampa. But assume also that Boston continues its dominance by winning two of three in the three-game series starting Monday in the Bronx. That leaves New York at 97-62 entering the final weekend’s three games in Boston.

As noted earlier, the Athletics haven’t fared well against the Angels. But they’ve only played them three times since June, winning two of those three. If the A’s can sweep their three-game series starting tonight in Oakland, then split the next six games against the Twins and Mariners, the Athletics would find themselves at 96-63, just one game behind the Yankees, entering their final weekend series in Anaheim.

If the A’s win two of three on that closing weekend while the Yankees lose two of three in Boston, both teams would finish at 98-64, sending the question of wild card home field to the tie-breakers.

In such circumstances, baseball’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition. No help there: the teams split their six-game series.

The second MLB playoffs tiebreaker is performance within each team’s division. For the moment, New York has the edge, standing 35-28 against the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles. Oakland is a relatively modest 33-34 against the Astros, Mariners, Angels, and Rangers. New York’s existing edge is probably large enough to swing the tiebreaker in its favor even if the next two weeks play out as speculated above.

NL West

The Rockies are 82-67, a half game up on the Dodgers’ 82-68 entering their three-game series starting Monday night in Los Angeles. So far, LA has won 9 of the teams’ 16 meetings. Assume the home team wins two of the three games; that lifts the Dodgers to 84-69, a half-game ahead of Colorado at 83-69.

From Los Angeles, the Rockies travel to Phoenix for three games against the Diamondbacks before finishing at home with four against the Phillies and three versus the Nationals. While any outcome is possible, the most likely one probably involves Colorado series victories in all three, an outcome that would leave the Rockies at 90-72.

Against such a Colorado finish, the Dodgers would have to close strong. But they have the schedule to do so, with three-game series against the Padres in Los Angeles, then on the road against the Diamondbacks and Giants. Assuming the Dodgers take 5 of 6 against the Padres and D-Backs, they would hit the final weekend at 89-70, still leading the Rockies by one game.

But despite its poor season, San Francisco has been a handful for the Dodgers this year, winning 9 of 16 including two of three in their only post-All Star break meeting, Aug. 13-15 in Los Angeles. If the Giants can do that again in San Francisco, the NL West race would conclude with the Dodgers and Rockies in a dead heat at 90-72, necessitating a Monday playoff.

The site of that potential playoff game, by the way, may also hinge on the outcome of this week’s series between the teams. At present, Los Angeles holds a 9-7 advantage in their head-to-head series.

NL wild card

Whichever team loses such a playoff still may qualify as a wild card – most likely the second one, depending on what the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals all do from here on in. For the moment, Chicago has the edge in the NL Central, and although that could change, either the Cubs or Brewers remains well-positioned to claim the first wild card.

The Cardinals’ fate is destined to come down to its final week showdown series at home against Milwaukee and then in Chicago against the Cubs. St. Louis is 82-68 at the moment, meaning the Cards would have to go 8-4 through the final two weeks to match the Dodgers’ and Rockies, assuming both finishes as projected above.

If that happens, the Dodger-Rockies tiebreaker game could be followed by something even more deliciously confounding: a Tuesday playoff between the Cardinals and the NL West loser to determine the National League’s second wild card and the last member of this season’s MLB playoffs.