Philadelphia Phillies: Offensive changes for 2019

Even though the Phillies are still a playoff long shot, the faithful are now deciding the moves they expect for ’19 from general manager Matt Klentak, but how many big-ticket free agents can they sign?

Offseason considerations:             

For the Philadelphia Phillies, being in a pennant chase ahead of management’s expectations has produced a wealth of acquired talent. But coupling them and young regulars with free agents will be more challenging than many fans can anticipate.

IN OTHER WORDS:           “The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision.” – Maimonides

Lately, three wild-card contenders for the second berth have cooled off because they didn’t sustain a higher level of performance. But the odds of all three franchises falling below the red pinstripes are low.

In their recent contests, the Colorado Rockies are 5-6, the St. Louis Cardinals are 5-6, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are 4-13. That stated, the Phils must win every game for even a remote chance. A minor miracle?

Other than Wilson Ramos, the additions for the infield, outfield and the relief corps won’t be returning. And even Ramos might not be back either. Basically, the front office prefers free agents who will be here long-term.

As for the youngsters, Jorge Alfaro and Scott Kingery have shown flashes of brilliance, but they will need the opportunity to achieve their tomorrow. So, will Klentak deviate from his strategy after this campaign?

Pursuing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper was in the GM’s thinking before last July. But although Klentak will bid on both stars, his preference is Machado because the exec was willing to part with the organization’s second-best MiLB starter. Ergo, Harper is plan B.

Before serious negotiations with expensive superstars, Klentak must set the 40-man roster. And although the decision-maker will protect top prospects, he won’t sign any free agents until after the Rule 5 Draft. To date, he’s already cut Lively, Leiter and Thompson.

Available talent:         

Justin Bour won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season, but he’s too valuable to be a pinch-hitter with occasional starts. However, his salary was $3.4 million for 2018 after his first arbitration. And if it increases in 2019, it will probably be too much for limited playing time. Payroll 101!

Ramos, 31, is playing for a contract and auditioning for all 30 clubs. But if Klentak inks a top hitter, he’d need Ramos more for defense. Moreover, he would block Alfaro even on a two-year deal, and the veteran could possibly secure three summers elsewhere.

Despite the speculation of inking Machado and Harper, the belief is the Phillies have plenty of financial room for two 10-campaign pacts, but many don’t think about Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins. In other words, the Phils can handle three $30 million stars per season over many 162s.

Having the hefty contracts of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana through 2020, the red pinstripes will replace those agreements with long-term deals for Nola and Hoskins. So, Klentak will have two expensive stars for quite a while and can add a third, not a fourth.

With the competitive-balance threshold at $210 million for 2021, eventually Nola, Hoskins and another superstar will account for $90 million: 42.9 percent based on AAV (average annual value). But the Phillies are only willing to exceed the Luxury Tax if they have a legitimate shot to reach the World Series.

Regarding Harper, the Phils have four outfielders besides Hoskins, and they have Odubel Herrera under a cost-friendly contract. But many fans believe Klentak could swap Herrera and put injury-plagued Roman Quinn in center. Realistically, he is on the disabled list for roughly half of every summer.

Quinn’s appearances* played per 140-game slate:

• 2015: 58
• 2016: 92
• 2017: 45
• 2018: 64
• * Includes all contests at any level through Sept. 17.

Because Cesar Hernandez will be a free agent after 2020, Kingery could eventually take over second base with Machado and Maikel Franco on the left side. Of course, Klentak can move Hernandez over the winter or at the trading deadline depending on the standings and Kingery’s growth.