Kansas City Royals: Ryan O’Hearn – savior or fluke?

The Kansas City Royals have seen a thoroughly impressive performance from Ryan O’Hearn since he was promoted to the majors. Should it be trusted?

There was no reason to expect the production that the Kansas City Royals have received this season from Ryan O’Hearn. He had struggled at AAA Omaha this past season, producing a .232/.322/.391 batting line, hitting 11 homers and 21 doubles in his 406 plate appearances. While the Royals had need of a first baseman after trading Lucas Duda, O’Hearn looked to be a placeholder instead of a possible long term asset.

Since arriving at the majors, O’Hearn has been on fire. In his 142 plate appearances with the Royals, he has produced an incredible .279/.380/.648 batting line, hitting 11 homers and eight doubles. O’Hearn has been the power hitter that the Royals have long sought at first, a player who gives that added dimension to the middle of their lineup.

After seeing his hot first month at the major league level, it is easy to dream that the Royals have another piece for the future. It is also easy to dream that O’Hearn could become the Royals first player to hit 40 or more homers in a season, pushing the single season performances of Mike Moustakas and Steve Balboni to the wayside. As the Royals are the only team in major league history to not have a player hit 40 homers in a season, the potential offered by O’Hearn is certainly intriguing.

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However, it is equally easy to wonder if this performance is an aberration. O’Hearn did have two seasons where he hit over 20 homers in the minor leagues, but that was mainly in the lower minors. The upper levels were not nearly as kind, as he struggled to find that same power stroke over the past three seasons.

On a statistical level, his production also appears to be unsustainable. O’Hearn has hit a home run on 22.9% of all fly balls he has hit in the majors this season, nearly two and a half times the major league average of 9.1%. He has also homered once every 11.1 at bats, nearly triple the major league average of one homer in every 29.6 at bats.

Unless the Royals have somehow managed to turn O’Hearn into Barry Bonds, it is highly unlikely that he will continue this sort of production. While that does not mean that O’Hearn will necessarily turn into Kevin Maas or Bob Hamelin, Kansas City should remain skeptical of this newfound power surge. Bringing in competition for first base, be it via a low cost free agent, or with in house options like Hunter Dozier and Frank Schwindel, would make a great deal of sense.

Ryan O’Hearn has been a force with the bat for the Kansas City Royals since being promoted to the majors. However, nothing in his track record says that he can continue this production. Enjoy it while it lasts.