New York Yankees: Who will pitch for the Yankees in the Wild Card game?

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 05: Masahiro Tanaka
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 05: Masahiro Tanaka /
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The New York Yankees are on their way to a one-game Wild Card playoff and it is unknown who the team will choose to pitch in that pivotal game.  We have an idea on who they will choose for the win or go home game.

The New York Yankees have four more home games and seven more road games remaining in the 2018 regular season.  They are currently 2.5 games ahead of the Oakland Athletics for home field advantage in the one-game Wild Card playoff.

Currently, the Yankees rotation lines up for Luis Severino to pitch in the Wild Card game.  Severino made his case to start in the one-game playoff after giving up only 1 earned run in 7 innings pitched against the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday night.

However, after a shaky second half, Aaron Boone and the rest of the Yankees coaching staff are likely looking into all available options.  After Severino in the rotation, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Lance Lynn, and J.A. Happ are next in line.

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Happ, Severino, and Tanaka are also currently scheduled to pitch in the last three games of the season in Boston from September 28th through September 30th.  If home field advantage is able to be clinched, the Yankees could avoid allowing the Red Sox to see their three best starters for three more games by using spot starters in their place.

The Yankees would then have their choice of Happ, Severino, or Tanaka for the one-game playoff.  Over the last 30 days, Happ is 2-0 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through 5 starts.  Severino is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP through 5 starts.  Tanaka is 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP through 5 starts.

Happ holds a 4-1 record against the A’s in his career with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP through 11 games (9 starts).  Against the Red Sox, Happ holds a 7-4 record with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP through 20 games (19 starts).

Severino holds a 1-1 record against the A’s in his career with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.403 WHIP through only 4 starts.  Against the Red Sox, Severino holds a 4-6 record with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP through 13 games (12 starts).

Tanaka holds a 3-2 record against the A’s in his career with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.983 WHIP through 5 starts.  Against the Red Sox, Tanaka holds an 8-4 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.129 WHIP through 17 starts.

In an ideal situation where the Yankees are confident they would move on to the American League Division Series, it would make sense for the Yankees to save Happ and Severino for the Red Sox.  This way, if the series went 5 games, Happ would be able to pitch twice (once in game one and once in game five).

Although the Yankees cannot afford to schedule their rotation on the assumption that they will move on to the ALDS, it still makes the most sense to use Tanaka in the Wild Card game.

Tanaka is at his best with 6+ days of rest, so he could be skipped on September 25th and pitch on September 26th instead.  This would then give him 6 days of rest in between his start against the Rays and the Wild Card game on October 3rd.  Throughout his career, he holds a 15-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.950 WHIP on 6+ days of rest.

On the other hand, if home field advantage is unable to be clinched, it is very likely that the Yankees will maintain their current rotation.  If this happened, Severino would be called on to pitch with the season on the line against the A’s or the Tampa Bay Rays on October 3rd.

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Severino was a Cy Young candidate early in the season, but the Yankees have been unsure what to expect when he takes the mound lately.  The Yankees acquired Happ to be a steady presence in the rotation, so he is understandably a widely popular choice for the one game playoff with how well he has performed.  However, with how dominant Tanaka has been lately, coupled with his prior experience in a one-game playoff, Tanaka would be a strong choice, especially on extra rest.