Jacob deGrom has had an incredible season for the New York Mets. Just imagine if he had received four runs of support in every game he pitched.
Heading into Saturday, the New York Mets had averaged 4.25 runs per game. Their offense has struggled over most of the season, as the Mets 625 runs scored is just 11th in the National League. Yet, even an average day at the plate shoud result in success, given the arms that New York has in the rotation.
This would especially be true for Jacob deGrom. He has put together a truly superlative season, posting a 1.77 ERA and a 0.938 WHiP, striking out 259 batters against 46 walks in his 209 innings. Even with that performance, deGrom is just 9-9 on the season, a victim of horrendous run support. Over his 31 outings, the Mets have scored a total of 110 runs, their 3.55 runs per game below even their standards. Of those 110 runs, 28 of them came in his first four starts, leaving deGrom with just 3.04 runs per game over his most recent 27 outings this year.
But what if deGrom had received the Mets average run support? What if the Mets had scored just four runs every time that he took the mound? Well, deGrom’s season would look a lot different in terms of his won-loss record, and would make him the unquestioned NL Cy Young winner in 2018.
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If we give deGrom exactly four runs in every start, it makes a dramatic difference. Excluding his May 13th outing, where he pitched for just one inning, the Mets have lost 17 of his starts where he allowed three runs or less. While four runs would not make every one of those starts a victory, as the bullpen had a hand in costing deGrom a few wins this season, it would still make a dramatic difference.
In those outings, the Mets would be 17-10, with four games heading into extra innings as the opposition also scored four runs. This is a dramatic difference from the Mets 13-18 record in games that deGrom starts.
Meanwhile his personal record would change to, at minimum, 11-5. If we keep his nine victories as they were, and change the other starts to four runs, deGrom would then have an additional five wins, while losing five losses. In that scenario, deGrom would be 14-4 on the year.
Obviously, this would not make a great deal of difference to the Mets season. Four more wins would not change their place in the standings, as New York would still be an afterthought this season. However, for deGrom, that could make the difference between his winning the Cy Young award and finishing elsewhere.
For the want of a few runs, Jacob deGrom could have had a won-loss record worthy of his other statistics. Instead, the New York Mets ace could miss out on a Cy Young award because of his team’s inability to provide run support.