MLB Playoffs: The current state of the American League Wild Card race

The 2018 American League Wild Card game to kick off the MLB playoffs will take place on October 3rd at either Minute Maid Park, Yankees Stadium, or the Oakland Coliseum.

The New York Yankees have clinched a spot in the AL Wild Card game in the MLB playoffs, but their opponent has yet to be determined. Due to this, it is possible for the Yankees to face either the Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, or Tampa Bay Rays.

If the regular season ended today, New York would host Oakland in the one game playoff. However, there are a few scenarios remaining that could alter this matchup and location.

The Yankees are currently 95-60, which has them 1.5 games ahead of the A’s for the top Wild Card spot. The Astros are currently 98-57, which has them 4.5 games ahead of the A’s for the top spot in the AL West.

The Rays are still in the Wild Card race, but they are currently 6.5 games behind the A’s for the second spot.  Tampa Bay will be eliminated from Wild Card contention following their next loss, or the A’s next win, whichever comes first.

The Yankees have 7 road games remaining in the regular season, but their remaining games are not easy. They will match up with two +.500 teams within their division as 4 games come against the Rays and 3 come against the Boston Red Sox.

New York is 38-29 against teams over .500 and 39-30 against other AL East teams. As they hold a 57% winning percentage in these situations, they could likely end up 4-3 in these remaining 7 games. This would give the Bronx Bombers a 99-63 record at the end of the regular season.

The Astros also have 7 road games remaining in the regular season and they are all against teams below .500. They will play 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays and 4 against the Baltimore Orioles.

Houston is 47-19 against teams below .500, so they could likely end up 5-2 in these remaining games. This would give the defending World Champions 103-59 record at the end of the season.

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The A’s have 6 road games remaining in the regular season.  These games are against one +.500 team and one -.500 team with 3 against the Seattle Mariners and 3 against the Los Angeles Angels. Oakland is 31-39 against teams over .500 and 63-23 against teams under .500.

As the Athletics hold a 44% winning percentage against teams over .500, they could possibly lose two out of three to the Mariners.  On the other hand, as they hold a 73% winning percentage against teams under .500, they could very well win two out of three against the Angels.  A 3-3 split to end the season for Oakland would give them a 97-65 record at the end of the season.

The Rays hopes of reaching the Wild Card game are bleak, but anything can happen in baseball.  Tampa Bay plays 4 games at home against the Yankees and 3 games on the road against the Blue Jays to close out the season.

They are 38-31 against other AL East teams, which is a great record in a division that has a chance to have two 100 game winners. However, assuming their previous success will match their future success this season, their 55% winning percentage against their division will not be enough.

As the Rays need to go 7-0 and the A’s need to go 0-6, it will be tough for Tampa Bay to sneak into the Wild Card game if they go 4-3 over their remaining games. Nonetheless, Kevin Cash getting this team to a 91-61 record at the end of the season would still be quite the accomplishment after trading Evan Longoria, Alex Colome, and Chris Archer while also testing out the opener strategy.

If the above final season record predictions hold true, the current MLB playoff matchups would hold true.  The Yankees would host the A’s in the one-game playoff, the Astros would have home field advantage over the Cleveland Indians, and the Red Sox would have home field advantage over the Wild Card winner.