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Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper’s Value and Impending Free Agency

By Dylan Smith

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) waves to the fans at Nationals Park after the game against the Miami Marlins was called due to rain. The players returned to the field to throw t-shirts and collectables after the final home game of the 2018 season. (Photo by Jonathan Newton / The Washington Post via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) waves to the fans at Nationals Park after the game against the Miami Marlins was called due to rain. The players returned to the field to throw t-shirts and collectables after the final home game of the 2018 season. (Photo by Jonathan Newton / The Washington Post via Getty Images) /
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Did Bryce Harper play his final home game for the Washington Nationals? The star’s impending free agency is set to be the dominant storyline of the off-season.

On Wednesday, Bryce Harper possibly played his final home game for the Washington Nationals. The Nationals beat the Miami Marlins in a rain-shortened 9-3 win, where Harper went 0-4 with a pair of strikeouts.

Following the game, the Washington faithful gave the slugger an ovation as he tipped his red and white Nationals’ cap to the home crowd for what could be the final time. The longtime National is set to hit free agency after the club finishes their season with a three-game series in Colorado.

Harper’s impending free agency is set to be the dominant storyline of the offseason. Giancarlo Stanton currently holds baseball’s largest contract (13yr, $325 million), but for how long? Harper seems to be on a course to receive a $400 million megadeal. While some say this number is ridiculous, Harper has the talent to command this type of money. Bringing Harper in could shape the next 6-9 years of a club. This could be a very rewarding lifelong commitment for any team willing to bring in the talented outfielder.

Even though his time in Washington has been filled with postseason disappointment, Harper has still managed to have a storied Nationals career. Through his first seven seasons, Harper is already a six-time All-Star, Silver Slugger, Rookie of Year and MVP.

Over his career, Harper has often been accused of being mediocre and overrated. Critics were all over the lefty during the first half of 2018, often saying that he is not worth $400 million. The analytics say otherwise. Even though this season has been a down year for the slugger, Harper has still been a well above average hitter. While he has only recorded  3.3 WAR for 2018 (according to FanGraphs), Harper’s wRC+ is a very respectable 134.

In my eyes, wRC+ is a better statistic to use when judging a batter’s season because it normalizes the batter’s ability to create runs. wRC+ judges Harper as being 34% better than the average Major League hitter, which is good enough for 19th overall in the Majors.

Yes, if I am paying Harper $400 million, I would want him to be one of the league’s best hitters. In the end, being a top 20 hitter is still very respectable as we know that Harper is capable of so much more. During his MVP season in 2015, Harper recorded a wRC+ of 197. He was almost twice as good as the league average hitter!

With that said, his future in Washington remains in question as the club might not be willing to meet Harper’s hefty asking price. Longtime teammate, Ryan Zimmerman, thinks that Harper would like to stay, but in the end, it will come down to the team’s offer (New York Post).

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“If you talk to him about D.C. and this organization, how comfortable he feels here and what kind of team I think he feels we’re going to have, I don’t think it’s a matter of him wanting to stay. It’s about economics,” Zimmerman said. “He deserves to get every penny that he can get. Hopefully, it’s here. Who knows?”

The big markets of Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles are heavily rumored destinations for the outfielder. The Philadelphia Phillies have also slid into the conversation as they are expected to make big moves on the free agent market during this offseason. Bryce Harper has the ability to shape the next decade of Major League Baseball with his impending decision.

If Harper does indeed leave, the Washington Nationals’ young outfielders should be able to plug his spot very nicely. The 19-year-old Juan Soto has been a phenom for the club in 2018, and the 21-year-old Victor Robles showed off his talents in Harper’s final home game. The youngster had a 4-5 performance with a home run and five RBIs.

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Of course, the Washington Nationals would love to keep Bryce Harper, but their depth could allow them to be back in contention very soon if he does choose to leave. This story will continue to be fun to follow as it continues to unfold throughout the off-season.

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