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Philadelphia Phillies: Starting rotation’s catch-22

By Tal Venada

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 27: Philadelphia Phillies manager Gabe Kapler (22) makes a pitching change during the sixth inning of a MLB game between the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies on August 27, 2018, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA(Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 27: Philadelphia Phillies manager Gabe Kapler (22) makes a pitching change during the sixth inning of a MLB game between the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies on August 27, 2018, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA(Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Pivetta’s improvement was evident, but will he be the odd man out of the rotation? Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

Slots one and two:          

If you expected one of the four aces with Jake Arrieta‘s signing, your disappointment is yours alone. At that time, my hope –hope– was for Arrieta to be the moundsman from last year’s second half and behind Nola from game one.

Included in his 60 starts prior to ’18, Nola had two month’s excellence from last June 22 to Aug. 12. He made 10 starts going 6-2 with a 1.71 ERA for 68 1/3 innings: almost seven frames per outing. Prophetic?

In 2016, former Phillies manager Mackanin stated Nola could be dominant like Greg “the Professor” Maddux. But when Nola’s extended brilliance in 2017 was over, the comparison made sense from the standpoint of control. Translation: Nola’s accuracy rate is roughly 80 percent.

Hurler’s average precision for consistency:

  • Successful at Double-A: 40 percent.
  • Successful in the MLB: 70 percent.

Regarding Arrieta, Klentak doesn’t have a strong, veteran rotation to move the number two. And while Nola is the stud, Arrieta is the experienced voice helping the young starters with his developed insight. An overlooked value?

Arrieta’s half-season statistics:

  • 2017’s first half: 18 Gms., 101 1/3 Inn., 8-7, a 4.35 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
  • 2017’s second half: 12 Gms., 67 Inn., 6-3, a 2.28 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
  • 2018’s first half: 18 Gms., 103 Inn., 7-6, a 3.23 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
  • 2018’s second half: 13 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., 3-5, a 5.04 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

From a distance, many fans believe Klentak can sign or deal for a better pitcher than Arrieta, but they don’t realize how postseason favorites are willing to outbid dollars and prospects due to their urgency to contend. So, do you expect the Phils to reach the ’19 NLCS with a winning hand? If so, you have a point!

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