MLB Playoffs: Colorado Rockies/Chicago Cubs, NL Wild Card Game Thread
The Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs play the loser-out NL Wild Card game on Tuesday to open the MLB playoffs, with the winner headed to Milwaukee for the NL Division Series.
For each postseason game, you will find a “game thread” here at Call To The Pen. This will be the place to be where fans of the game can use the comment section to chat about what’s happening on the field throughout the MLB playoffs. We’ll be here all the way through the end of the World Series.
After two tie-breaker games yesterday, the real MLB playoffs start today with the National League Wild Card Game. The winner goes on to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, while the loser heads home to watch the rest of the postseason from the couch. After yesterday’s loss to the Brewers, Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo said, “We’ll be ready. This team has responded all year.”
Colorado Rockies
Kyle Freeland takes the hill for the Rockies. Freeland may be the best NL pitcher outside the big three of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola. He should finish in the top five in NL Cy Young voting. Despite pitching in the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field, Freeland put up a 2.85 ERA (3.67 FIP) this season.
Of the three things a pitcher has the most control over—strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed—Freeland excelled at keeping the ball in the ballpark. That’s important because his strikeout rate was below average and his walk rate was slightly better than league average. Surprisingly, he had a better ERA at home (2.40) than on the road (3.23).
Behind Freeland, the Rockies have a middle-of-the-pack defense, according to Fangraphs. They ranked 16th of the 30 MLB teams. Individually, second baseman D.J. Lemahieu, third baseman Nolan Arenado and shortstop Trevor Story flashed the leather, while first baseman Ian Desmond and center fielder Charlie Blackmon did not grade out well with the glove.
The Rockies offense is a bit of a mirage. They were eighth in baseball in wOBA, hitting .256/.322/.435 as a team, but when you adjust for league and ballpark effects, they drop all the way down to 25th in baseball. Their 87 wRC+ pegs them as 13 percent below average on offense (100 wRC+ is league average). At hitter-friendly Coors Field, they hit .287/.350/.503. On the road, where they’ll be today, they hit .225/.295/.370. The only National League team with a worse offense on the road than the Rockies was the San Francisco Giants.
The big guns on offense for the Rockies are three sluggers who combined for 104 home runs. Nolan Arenado led the league with 38 dingers. He also had 110 RBI while hitting .297/.374/.561 (132 wRC+, 32 percent better than average). Trevor Story finished just behind him with 37 homers. He also stole 27 bases and hit .291/.348/.567 (127 wRC+). At the top of the order, Charlie Blackmon scored 119 runs while hitting 29 homers (.291/.358/.502, 116 wRC+).
Chicago Cubs
While Kyle Freeland is making the first postseason appearance of his young career, the Cubs have veteran lefty Jon Lester toeing the slab in this contest. Lester has started 21 postseason games in his career and has an impressive 2.55 ERA in 148 innings. This season, he had a 3.32 ERA but his FIP was 4.39, which suggests he had some luck and/or defensive help behind him.
Like Freeland, Lester has a below-average strikeout rate and a walk rate that is close to league average. The main driver in his ERA being lower than his FIP was a left-on–base percentage of 80.3 percent. League average this season was 72.8 percent. As for the Wrigley Field factor, Lester had a higher ERA and FIP at home (3.71, 4.59) than on the road (2.87, 4.16).
The Cubs defense behind Lester is one of the best in the National League. Only the Milwaukee Brewers were better. Unlike the Rockies, who have great defenders mixed with terrible defenders, the Cubs have solid defenders all over the field, with no atrocious gloves.
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Dodgers Way
The Cubs offense finished 11th of the 30 MLB teams in wOBA, with a .258/.333/.410 batting line. When league and ballpark effects were considered, they drop to 12th. They were slightly better at home (.262/.338/.415, 103 wRC+) than on the road (.255/.328/.406, 97 wRC+).
The hitters to watch on the Cubs include Javier Baez (101 R, 34 HR, 111 RBI, 21 SB, .290/.326/.554, 131 wRC+), Anthony Rizzo (74 R, 25 HR, 101 RBI, .283/.376/.470, 125 wRC+) and Kris Bryant (.272/.374/.460, 125 wRC+ in 102 games). Baez has taken a big step folder from his previous level of production. Rizzo bounced back from an ugly start to have a strong second half of the season. Bryant was great in April and May, but hasn’t been as good since coming off the DL.
What to Watch For
In a loser-out game, don’t expect either team to stay too long with their starting pitcher if Freeland or Lester get into trouble early. Relievers will be on call at all times. When the game inevitably gets turned over to the bullpens, the teams were nearly equal according to Fangraphs. The Cubs ranked 12th and the Rockies 13th among the 30 MLB teams this year.
Next. Stats on playoff teams you may have missed. dark
The weather in Chicago can often play a big role in what type of game it is. When the wind blows out at Wrigley, it’s a hitter’s park. When the win blows in, the pitchers have the advantage. The current weather forecast is for a partly cloudy, 60° day with the wind blowing slightly in from right field. It should be a fun few hours of baseball!