Philadelphia Phillies: Trade bait up for debate
The Phillies have promised offseason fireworks with all but two stars available, but general manager Matt Klentak and his Analytics Department have two issues to address.
Kap-sized:
Before the Philadelphia Phillies begin making titanic-like deals, perhaps, GM Klentak should review the numbers with skipper Kapler. From, however, a nautical to a numerical point, the team had scored 690 runs in 2017 and 677 in 2018; but they played small ball and looked alive at September’s end.
IN OTHER WORDS: “A mistake is only an error; it becomes a mistake when you fail to correct it.” – John Lennon
Regarding production, the first fix is plating less runs with sabermetrics than the traditional way. And this inability is more striking because of the added firepower over the winter and July’s acquisitions. Sacrebleu!
As for the second problem, unused weaponry gets rusty. Cesar Hernandez, Scott Kingery and Roman Quinn have speed and can bunt. So, where were they when the club looked dead?
Glaring holes are obvious, but no franchise can fix every weakness without incurring the increased punishment for unbridled spending. Yes, even the New York Yankees in ’18 curtailed their expenditures to reset the Luxury Tax penalty due to 2019’s free-agent class.
By comparison to the faithful here, some Yankees fans go one step further by demanding a swindle by management of any organizations they work with. So, all supporters of the other 29 clubs are a bit more realistic.
Keep in mind, Klentak has competitors who have outfielders and third baseman to swap, and others are willing to accept lower offers or less capable regulars. And other GMs will point out every flaw involving Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Justin Bour and Hernandez. High-stakes poker!
When the postseason ends, general managers will have decisions about who to protect from the Rule 5 Draft with a 40-man spot. Then, the Winter Meetings will begin on Dec. 9, and Klentak’s ground work will be slightly more visible due to leaks from other teams and agents. Translation: rumors!
Methods and rules:
Like any business, baseball has restrictions: time, competition and extenuating circumstances. Currently, Klentak is receiving calls and offers regarding his available players. But execs must first set their 40-man roster by early November for the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 12 at the Winter Meetings.
Generally speaking, the faithful will not be happy waiting because every year they believe the front office is doing nothing. Fire Klentak! On the other hand, fast deals can be rip-offs. To illustrate, the Jake Arrieta signing revealed the end result financially justified the delay.
ON THE OTHER HAND: “Toughest job in baseball is the general manager. Second toughest is the hitting coach.” – Ken Harrelson
As for availability, the Phillies have two players they won’t move: Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins. However, Carlos Santana and Arrieta will be here next season because of their contracts and acceptable –not perfect– numbers. Arrieta is behind Nola for ’19, unless one of the youngsters surpasses him. Yes, one just might!
On swaps involving Herrera, Franco or Hernandez, Klentak will be the point man setting up a trade. President Andy MacPhail will sign off on some due to complexity, and a megadeal will require co-owner John S. Middleton’s approval. In fact, this coordination is necessary and includes free-agent negotiations.
Don’t expect youngsters to be in deals without a corresponding move. In other words, Klentak could swap Hernandez because he can platoon Kingery with J.P. Crawford at second base. But the GM would still need a leadoff man in the return package.
Negotiations:
If you’re thinking Quinn could bat first and replace Herrera, Klentak probably won’t take that risk. Yes, Quinn can do the job in center field and at the plate, not the disabled list. An MiLB campaign is 140 games, and the speedster hasn’t even hit triple digits in any summer. Ergo, he’s fragile!
Quinn’s appearances* played per 140-game slate:
- 2012: 66 of 76 (short-season Low-A)
- 2013: 67
- 2014: 88
- 2015: 58
- 2016: 92
- 2017: 45
- 2018: 78
- * Includes all contests at any level.
Dealing Herrera and Hernandez presents the consequential problem of who will defend center field and bat first. But the Phillies can’t gamble on losing Quinn without a replacement for both areas. Therefore, a proposal from another franchise must be more than prospects.
In the leadoff spot, Hernandez went from .294, a .371 OBP, six homers and 39 RBIs in ’16 to .294, a .373 OBP, nine home runs and 34 RBIs in ’17. Last year, he dropped to .253 with a 356 OBP but increased to 15 bombs and 60 RBIs. Do the locals believe he needs a change of scenery?
Regarding Herrera, you never know what he’ll do in April. The streaky hitter had flirted with .300 in ’15, and he drew a lot of walks as a leadoff man one summer. As for stats, he went from .281, a .325 OBP, 14 long balls and 56 RBIs in ’17 to .255, a .310 OBP, 22 blasts and 71 RBIs. Fans, is it time to move on from Herrera?
Not so fast! Both regulars have two things in common: a manager and a hitting coach. So, they worked counts and changed their launch angles. And the results were a decrease in average and OBP but an increase in homers and RBIs. But remember, Herrera was watching a pitch or two to the catcher. A protest?
Odd man out:
With Hoskins at first base and Santana manning the hot corner, Franco will be the man without a position. So, the front office may prefer someone else in left field to improve the defense with this new alignment. Or they could switch Nick Williams to left and ink Bryce Harper for right field.
Regarding Santana, his glove is adequate but Franco’s is better at third. The switch-hitter had batted .259 in ’17 with a .363 OBP, 23 home runs and 79 RBIs but produced a .229 average, a .352 OBP, 24 bombs and 86 RBIs in ’18. Additionally, he’ll be more familiar with NL pitchers and thrive with acquired firepower.
Concerning the new hitting approach, it also affected Franco. He went from .230, a .281 OBP, 24 long balls and 88 RBIs to .270, a .314 OBP, 22 blasts and 68 RBIs (sometimes batting eighth). But if the red pinstripes acquire shortstop Manny Machado, Santana could slot between Hoskins and Machado.
Phillies possibilities:
- First base: Santana, Hoskins or Bour.
- Second base: Hernandez, Kingery or Crawford.
- Shortstop: Machado, Kingery or Crawford.
- Third base: Franco, Santana, Machado, Kingery or Crawford.
- Left field: Hoskins, Williams or Herrera.
- Center field: Herrera, Quinn or Altherr.
- Right Field: Harper or Williams.
With offense and defense in mind, Klentak has enough options besides Hoskins as a first sacker; he can sign free agents and trade veterans. But because the GM has multiple directions, he will probably be more deliberate this winter. Will he hit a home run, and what is he doing now? Fielding calls!
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