MLB Playoffs: 2018 ALDS Series Preview Houston vs. Cleveland

2018 MLB Playoffs: Astros/Indians Pitching

Houston Astros starting pitching: 2nd in MLB (22.5 WAR)

When it comes to MLB starting rotations in 2018, there are the Indians and Astros, then a big gap to the third-best team, the New York Mets. The gap between the Astros, with the second-best starting rotation, and the Mets, with the third-best starting rotations, is about the same as between the Mets and the Braves, who ranked 12th.

With Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, the Astros have two AL Cy Young candidates at the top of their rotation. The veteran Verlander is scheduled to start Game 1, with Cole taking Game 2. Verlander led the Astros starting pitchers in innings pitched and ERA. He was 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA and 2.78 FIP. He also had the highest strikeout rate of his career (34.8 percent, which was the best in baseball).

As good as Verlander was, Cole was nearly his equal. He went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 2.70 FIP in 200.3 innings. Cole was third in baseball, with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. He was everything the Astros could have hoped for when they acquired him in a trade with the Pirates last offseason.

The Game 3 starter for Houston is expected to be Dallas Keuchel, who was 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and 3.69 FIP in 204.7 innings. He’s the only lefty in the rotation and may have an edge against the Indians, who are about seven percent above average against right-handed pitchers but one percent below average against southpaws.

It’s not yet known who would start a Game 4 for Houston. They could bring Verlander back on three day’s rest or go with Charlie Morton, who was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 167 innings. Morton pitched 112.3 of his 167 innings in the first half because of injuries in the second half.

Cleveland Indians starting pitching: 1st in MLB (22.9 WAR)

The Game 1 starter for the Indians will be Corey Kluber, who has won the AL Cy Young Award in two of the last four seasons, including just last year. Kluber won 20 games for the first time this year and led the team in innings pitched (215 IP, 2.89 ERA, 3.12 FIP). He and Verlander should give fans an exciting pitcher’s duel.

The Game 2 starter for Cleveland will be Carlos Carrasco. After struggling through the first half with a 4.12 ERA and 3.44 FIP, Carrasco came on strong in the second half, with a 2.52 ERA and 2.37 FIP. He increased his strikeout rate by more than six percent in the second half, while keeping his walk rate low.

With Trevor Bauer likely relegated to the bullpen because he’s coming back from a broken leg, Cleveland will send Mike Clevinger out for Game 3. Clevinger may look like the young pitcher from the movie Dazed and Confused, but he knows how to pitch. He had a 3.02 ERA and 3.52 FIP in 200 innings this year.

Unless the Indians bring Kluber back on three day’s rest, Game 4 will likely go to Shane Bieber. The rookie made his major league debut in late May, then became a mainstay in the rotation in June. As a starting pitcher, he was 11-4 with a 4.25 ERA, but his 2.96 FIP suggests he was more effective than he looked.