MLB playoffs: One bold prediction for each team
The MLB playoffs are underway, and plenty have put forth predictions on how everything will work out, often sticking to the “safe” predictions. This won’t be that – these are bold predictions, one for each team!
Many have put forth predictions for the MLB playoffs with fairly safe and tame predictions – the highest seed winning, the American League winning the World Series, etc. Instead of staying “tame”, we’re going to push the envelope a bit!
We will have one prediction for each team involved in the division series of the MLB playoffs, going from the worst record to the best among all 8 teams.
Editor’s note: This was originally written before the start of the NLDS.
Atlanta Braves: The key offensive performer in the MLB playoffs will be Ozzie
Sure, the Atlanta Braves have multiple hitters who challenged for the top hits mark in the National League, they have the player that most think will run away with the Rookie of the Year Award in the National League leading off their lineup, and they have four players who had .800+ OPS marks on the season. Ozzie Albies is none of those.
On the Atlanta Braves, the one thing that Albies has is that he is the only Brave to score 100 runs in the 2018 season. He was one of three Braves to hit 40 doubles, one of three to hit 20+ home runs, one of four to drive in 70+ runs, and one of five to steal 10+ bases.
What most see about Albies is that he opened the season on a tear, finishing his first half with a .281/.318/.516 line with 29 doubles and 20 home runs. He slumped to a .226/.282/.342 line in the second half with 11 doubles and 4 home runs.
However, looking at just the half-season splits ignores the growth Albies experienced as a hitter over the season. In September, he was able to put together a walk rate of 9%, having not posted over a 6% walk rate in any other month of the season. He also had horrid luck on the month, even though he was clearly seeing the ball well. A .213 BABIP in September kept his slash line down, but correcting that to his .290ish BABIP that Albies sported for the season, He would have put together a final month of around .265/.340/.450.
Albies is a dynamic runner, graded as a 70 on the 20 to 80 scouting scale for his raw speed, and he’s been known for his frequency of pushing for an extra base this season. His aggressiveness on the bases and seeing the ball well will allow Albies to be the key bat for the Braves in the MLB playoffs.
A Rockie returning to his original team will impact at least one game off of the bench
Matt Holliday had an incredible early career for the Colorado Rockies. He took over a starting job in 2004, and by 2007, he was the team’s leader as he scored a major run that sent the Rockies to the playoffs and eventually to the World Series. That season, he finished 2nd in the NL MVP voting.
However, after the 2008 season, it was clear the Colorado Rockies were not going to be able to afford to extend Holliday to keep him from free agency, so they traded him to the Oakland Athletics ahead of his free agency after the 2009 season. Over those first 5 seasons with the Rockies, Holliday posted a .319/.386/.552 slash line and averaged 38 doubles, 26 home runs, and 13 stolen bases.
Holliday went on to play 8 very good years with the St. Louis Cardinals before heading to New York with the Yankees in 2017. He fell ill during the season and attempted to play through it, leading to a rough season. When no teams came after Holliday to open the 2018 season, the Rockies came calling in late July.
Holliday’s been hitting well for the Rockies, sporting a .283/.415/.434 line with 2 home runs over 25 games. He’s been a strong veteran presence for the Rockies and hit well off of the bench. The prediction here is that coming off of the bench, he’ll garner a hit that impacts a game for the Rockies.
The starter that performs the best for the Indians is their #4 in the rotation
The Cleveland Indians were able to push their way to the MLB playoffs behind a rotation that featured four starters that each topped 200 strikeouts, but it’s the guy who had the least strikeouts of the front four in the rotation that will end up doing the best in the MLB playoffs.
Clevinger took the next step in 2018 in his development, making 32 starts, tossing 200 innings, and posting a 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a 67/207 BB/K ratio. While many would name Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco as the top guy to watch. Some could even mention Trevor Bauer, who likely will be the game 4 starter if the Houston/Cleveland series gets that far.
However, the guy who has caught my eye as the season has closed out has been on Clevinger. He took the mound for his final start before the July trading deadline and struck out 8 over 5 innings, but he was able to get his pitch count down in that game after struggling at times with it earlier in the season.
Including that July 28th start, Clevinger finished the season with a dozen starts that he pitched 71 1/3 innings, with a 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 23/82 BB/K ratio.
He’s entering the offseason on a hot streak, and though the Astros saw him twice this year, and defeated him in both games, those games were in May, and Clevinger has been a much different pitcher since then.
The Dodgers will badly miss righty Ross Stripling in the NLDS
When the NLDS rosters came out, I looked through the Dodgers pitching roster, and then I looked again. After checking injury reports, I went onto Twitter (that wonderful harbinger of great thought) to see why on earth the Dodgers would attempt the MLB playoffs without Ross Stripling.
Turns out, I was not the only one with this confusion. Sure, Stripling is not going to blow anyone away with a triple-digit fastball or freeze them with a killer curve. He was, however, a legit All-Star this season as he finished the year with a 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 22/136 BB/K ratio over 122 innings.
Stripling spent much of August on the shelf, and when he returned in September, his base numbers weren’t pretty, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over 12 innings. However, he had some bad luck in those games with a .364 BABIP. He did have his second-highest K/9 in a month on the 2018 season.
So, why would a guy who put up a 6.75 ERA over the final month be so important? Looking at the rosters, the Dodgers seem to have the starters that will start games and that’s really about it for multiple-inning arms. The Atlanta Braves are actually stacked up with guys who worked as starters in the 2018 season, and if a game went long or a starter is knocked out early, they are set up to handle that well, while the Dodgers could overly tax their bullpen to keep up with.
The Brewers will use an “opener” or bullpen game strategy multiple times in one series
It’s already been announced that the Milwaukee Brewers will use Brandon Woodruff as an “opener” in game 1, so that ruined my original prediction of the Brewers using an opener strategy in one of the games in Milwaukee to open the NLDS, so we’ll go even further.
With a best-of-five series, it’s going to be more difficult to pull off two openers in one series, but this prediction is that the Brewers will be around long enough to do this in one of their series in the 2018 MLB playoffs.
The Brewers have loaded their NLDS roster in a way that sets up just three starters on the roster – Jhoulys Chacin, Gio Gonzalez, and Wade Miley. However, there are multiple guys that can be multi-inning arms that would work as an opener or handle multiple innings out of the bullpen – Corbin Burnes, Junior Guerra, Josh Hader, Freddy Pralta, and Brandon Woodruff.
With both Miley and Gonzalez being lefties, the Brewers could even choose to set up their opener games in such a way to split up the lefties, which would set up the second opener option in the NLDS if it were to happen in game 4 of the series.
In contrast to the home runs typical of the Yankees, a stolen base will be the biggest moment for the Yanks
The New York Yankees led the American League in home runs with 267. They finished 12th out of 15 in stolen bases with 63. It seems like stealing a base would be the least of the consideration for the Yankees in the MLB playoffs with everything on the line.
With a loaded roster overall, only three Yankees have stolen 10+ bases on the season. Speed is not a forte of team in general, but one thing that manager Aaron Boone has done well is sending his top guys selectively. He also has Andrew McCutchen who may not be the fastest guy in the game anymore, but he’s still very sharp in his instincts when to run.
In 2004, a stolen base was the turning point for the last Red Sox/Yankees playoff matchup. The Yankees could turn the tables this time, and while they don’t have a dedicated base-stealer on the postseason roster, a guy like Brett Gardner is likely going to be coming off of the bench in many games and could be the perfect veteran with moxie to steal a base.
One guy that many don’t remember is Gleyber Torres, who was graded an above-average to plus runner as a prospect. He could be a very interesting guy to watch when he’s on base in this series.
Of course, part of this prediction is also that being caught stealing a base could be the significant moment as well…
More wins will come from relievers than starters in the ALDS
The Astros have the top-ranked pitching staff overall by Fangraphs, tallying 30.6 fWAR. The Yankees were ranked 2nd overall in baseball with 26.6 fWAR, so the difference between the Astros and the rest of baseball this season is significant.
While many note the tremendous starting staff that the Houston Astros have as the reason for that huge number, and certainly a starting staff that features Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Jr., and Charlie Morton, that’s a danged good assumption to make. The Astros finished 2nd in Fangraphs rankings of starting pitchers, however, finishing nip-and-tuck behind their ALDS opponent, Cleveland.
That’s exactly why I believe the bullpen will come into play. The Astros and Indians are very likely going to be evenly matched while the starters are on the mound. That will mean that games will get to the 6th/7th inning to hand off to the bullpen on an even playing field.
While the Indians bullpen has been much-maligned, and rightfully so, ranking 27th in baseball this season. On the flip side, the Astros bullpen ranked 3rd in all of baseball behind just the Yankees and Padres.
While many don’t appreciate just how good this unit was, the Astros certainly could hand off multiple games to their bullpen that end up being decided by the bullpen, leaving the decision to the bullpen, not the starters.
While JD and Mookie and the offense will get theirs, the top series performer will be an arm
The Red Sox lineup could be the toughest 1-9 in the entire league to face, and there’s no doubt that they will present one heck of a matchup issue for the Yankees.
However, my prediction is that the scene-stealer in this latest installment of the Yankees-Red Sox baseball theater will be someone hurling the sphere.
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Whether it be the return of Chris Sale to the mound to dominate the Yankees, a long, productive start from David Price or another starter, or Craig Kimbrel saving all three games, tossing more than an inning in each appearance, the dynamic piece for the Red Sox will come from their bevy of arms.
The Red Sox bullpen has certainly been an issue, and that will likely lead Alex Cora to lean on his starter harder if the starter’s in a groove on the mound rather than worrying about pitch counts or anything of that note. He has one of the game’s great closers to shut things down at the back end, but getting to Kimbrel has been a mess all season.
Getting one starter who comes out with a big performance could absolutely sway what should be a highly-contested series between the Yankees and Red Sox, so watch for which one of the arms steps up and climbs that mantle by the end of the series.
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There they are, one bold prediction for each team in the MLB playoffs in the divisional round. Let’s hope for some big games to come!