MLB Playoffs: NLDS, Game 3, Dodgers vs. Braves game thread
Leading two games to none, the Dodgers head to Atlanta for Game 3 with budding ace Walker Buehler on the hill versus Atlanta’s Sean Newcomb.
For each postseason game, you will find a “game thread” here at Call To The Pen. This will be the place where fans of the game can use the comment section to chat about what’s happening on the field throughout the MLB playoffs. We’ll be here all the way through the end of the World Series.
The Dodgers jumped out to a two games to none lead behind terrific pitching from lefties Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw. Ryu pitched seven scoreless innings in Game 1 and Kershaw did him one better, with eight scoreless innings in Game 2. The Dodgers bullpen followed the two lefties by completing the shutouts in each of the first two games.
It won’t get any easier for Atlanta in Game 3, as the Dodgers send out Walker Buehler to face Sean Newcomb. The boys in blue will be hoping to repeat their performance in last year’s NLDS when they swept the Diamondbacks in three straight games.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Game 3 starter Walker Buehler doesn’t have the experience of Ryu or Kershaw, but he’s got the raw stuff to dominate hitters. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph this season, which was the fifth-highest average fastball velocity for starting pitchers with 130 or more innings in 2018.
If there’s one thing about Buehler that the Braves might have in their favor in this game, it’s that he wasn’t as dominant on the road as he was at pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium. Buehler had a 1.93 ERA and 2.76 FIP at home, but a less impressive 3.45 ERA and 3.37 FIP on the road. Away from home, his strikeout rate dropped slightly, his walk rate went up a bit, and he gave up slightly more home runs per nine innings.
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Dodgers Way
With the great pitching they’ve had so far, it’s easy to forget about the Dodgers offense. In the first two games, Dodgers hitters have combined to hit .182/.324/.491. Of their 10 hits, five have been home runs and two have been doubles. Now that they’re on the road, they should continue to hit. The Dodgers had a 112 wRC+ on the road this season. Only the Oakland A’s were better away from home.
Then again, they will be facing a left-handed starter and the Dodgers were better against righties than lefties this season. Against righties, the Dodgers had a 117 wRC+, which was the best in baseball. Against lefties, they were just slightly above average, with a 101 wRC+, eighth in baseball.
NOTE: RC+ is a hitting metric that is adjusted for league and ballpark effects where 100 is average. A 110 wRC+ means that player or team is 10 percent above average on offense. An 80 wRC+ means that player or team is 20 percent below average on offense).
Here is the Dodgers starting lineup for Game 3, with each player’s plate appearances (PA) and wRC+ away from home in parenthesis. There are three changes from the lineups they used in Games 1 and 2. Chris Taylor takes over in left field for Joc Pederson. David Freese is at first base instead of Max Muncy. Matt Kemp will roam right field, with Yasiel Puig riding the pine.
LF Chris Taylor (310 PA, 97 wRC+ on the road)
3B Justin Turner (215 PA, 143 wRC+ on the road)
1B David Freese (26 PA, 257 wRC+ on the road)
SS Manny Machado (171 PA, 105 wRC+ on the road)
RF Matt Kemp (254PA, 126 wRC+ on the road)
CF Cody Bellinger (325 PA, 143 wRC+ on the road)
2B Kike Hernandez (240 PA, 89 wRC+ on the road)
C Yasmani Grandal (270 PA, 113 wRC+ on the road)
Most of the Dodgers hitters have been very good on the road. Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez were below average and Manny Machado was only slightly above average, but the rest of the lineup was impressive.
The changes in the Dodgers lineup reflect the struggles of Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson against lefties this year. Chris Taylor and Matt Kemp had more success against lefties than Puig and Pederson. Freese is an interesting choice over Muncy at first base because Muncy was well above average against left handed pitchers.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are going with young pitcher Sean Newcomb in Game 3. Manager Brian Snitker felt Newcomb was the best option in part because he’s had success against the Dodgers. He’s referring to Newcomb’s start on July 29 when he no-hit the Dodgers for 8 2/3 innings before Chris Taylor singled to left to break it up. Of course, Newcomb also had an ugly start against the Dodgers on June 10 when he gave up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.
On the season, Newcomb had a 3.90 ERA and 4.14 FIP. His Achilles heel is control. He had the worst walk rate (11.6 percent) of any starting pitcher with 162 or more innings in 2018. He also struggled at home (5.12 ERA, 4.39 FIP).
The Braves offense hasn’t hit much yet, with no runs and just nine hits in the first two games. Eight of those nine hits are singles. As a team, they’re hitting .145/.159/.161.
During the season, the Braves offense finished 15th of the 30 MLB teams with a 97 wRC+, but they were better on the road (101 wRC+, 10th in MLB) than at home (93 wRC+, 23rd in MLB) and they’ll be home on Sunday. Also, despite their poor showing against lefties Ryu and Kershaw in Games 1 and 2, they actually hit lefties better (107 wRC+, 3rd in MLB) than righties (93 wRC+, 20th in MLB). Needless to say, they’ll have their work cut out for them against righty Walker Buehler.
LF Ronald Acuńa, Jr. (210 PA, 137 wRC+ at home)
CF Ender Inciarte (328 PA, 86 wRC+ at home)
1B Freddie Freeman (345 PA, 135 wRC+ at home)
RF Nick Markakis (346 PA, 100 wRC+ at home)
3B Johan Camargo (266 PA, 118 wRC+ at home)
C Kurt Suzuki (166 PA, 119 wRC+ at home)
2B Ozzie Albies (337 PA, 94 wRC+ at home)
SS Charlie Culberson (145 PA, 79 wRC+ at home)
Braves manager Brian Snitker has shuffled the lineup a bit by moving Ender Inciarte up from eighth in the lineup to second. Inciarte hits righties better than lefties. Camargo was moved from second to fifth, with Kurt Suzuki slotting in at sixth and Ozzie Albies moving from seventh to eight in the order.
Acuńa, Jr. and Freeman were the Braves’ top hitters at home. They also both hit right-handed pitching quite well. Markakis was also better against righties than lefties.
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