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Philadelphia Phillies: Winter’s buy-a-bat forecast

By Tal Venada

BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 10: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals and Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles talk during their game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 10, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 10: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals and Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles talk during their game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 10, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Machado and Harper will be in different uniforms next April. Photograph by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

For the Phillies front office, 2019’s free-agent class is the tree for harvesting some golden apples, but even one will take a big bite out of general manager Matt Klentak’s budget.

Open sesame:    

The Philadelphia Phillies corporate philosophy under the current president is to grow the arms and buy the bats. Yes, Andy MacPhail’s motto is Klentak’s guideline, but the GM can only rely on scouting reports, past performance, the star’s health, and the hope for good fortune.

"IN OTHER WORDS:     “If you make the wrong decision, you make the wrong decision. That’s all there is to it. There are few guarantees in life. One of them is that you will make lots of mistakes.” – Nicholas Lore"

From 66 wins to 80, the faithful would have taken a 14-game increase in a split second on March 27, but not capturing the NL East produced some disappointment. Yet, if you expect Klentak to correct everything you see wrong, real or perceived, another giant step forward might let you down.

Concerning payroll, a franchise has their annual cost like any other business, but long-term deals change yearly after a signing bonus. To illustrate, Carlos Santana will receive $35 million over the next two summers on a three-season pact of $60 million.

On the other hand, the AAV (average annual value) discourages multiple back-loaded contracts and determines a team’s penalty for exceeding 2018’s competitive-balance threshold of $197 million. As for the Phils, they must count Santana’s $20 million per 162 regardless of their payout each year.

For ’19, the anticipated bonanza of free agents is here, and the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants had cut their payroll to be under the $197 million ceiling and reset their base tax rate. Why? Manny Machado and Bryce Harper head this talented group.

Without underestimating the competition, you can eliminate some clubs. For instance, many organizations won’t be in the hunt: ones in small markets, rebuilding mode and financial binds. And three franchises in these categories are the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Chicago White Sox and the Washington Nationals.

Having other non-participatory reasons, the Boston Red Sox had signed J.D. Martinez for 2018 and substantially exceeded the $197 million.  And teams like the Baltimore Orioles won’t re-sign their superstars. So, it’s not a free-for-all!

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