Philadelphia Phillies: Winter’s buy-a-bat forecast

For the Phillies front office, 2019’s free-agent class is the tree for harvesting some golden apples, but even one will take a big bite out of general manager Matt Klentak’s budget.

Open sesame:    

The Philadelphia Phillies corporate philosophy under the current president is to grow the arms and buy the bats. Yes, Andy MacPhail’s motto is Klentak’s guideline, but the GM can only rely on scouting reports, past performance, the star’s health, and the hope for good fortune.

IN OTHER WORDS:     “If you make the wrong decision, you make the wrong decision. That’s all there is to it. There are few guarantees in life. One of them is that you will make lots of mistakes.” – Nicholas Lore

From 66 wins to 80, the faithful would have taken a 14-game increase in a split second on March 27, but not capturing the NL East produced some disappointment. Yet, if you expect Klentak to correct everything you see wrong, real or perceived, another giant step forward might let you down.

Concerning payroll, a franchise has their annual cost like any other business, but long-term deals change yearly after a signing bonus. To illustrate, Carlos Santana will receive $35 million over the next two summers on a three-season pact of $60 million.

On the other hand, the AAV (average annual value) discourages multiple back-loaded contracts and determines a team’s penalty for exceeding 2018’s competitive-balance threshold of $197 million. As for the Phils, they must count Santana’s $20 million per 162 regardless of their payout each year.

For ’19, the anticipated bonanza of free agents is here, and the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants had cut their payroll to be under the $197 million ceiling and reset their base tax rate. Why? Manny Machado and Bryce Harper head this talented group.

Without underestimating the competition, you can eliminate some clubs. For instance, many organizations won’t be in the hunt: ones in small markets, rebuilding mode and financial binds. And three franchises in these categories are the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Chicago White Sox and the Washington Nationals.

Having other non-participatory reasons, the Boston Red Sox had signed J.D. Martinez for 2018 and substantially exceeded the $197 million.  And teams like the Baltimore Orioles won’t re-sign their superstars. So, it’s not a free-for-all!

More teams than stars:

Of the seven clubs pursuing Machado or Harper, this article covers them in reverse order of competitiveness for Klentak. But all are a threat to overpay for either star who can be productive for 10 seasons. For clarity, $35 million for each of 10 summers is the midpoint between $30-40 million.

Franchises with biding possibilities other than the Phillies:

• New York (AL): Machado for third base.
• Los Angeles (NL): Harper for right field.
• San Francisco: Harper for right field.
• Milwaukee: Machado at shortstop.
• Atlanta: Harper for right field.
• Cleveland: Harper as a corner outfielder.
• Chicago (NL): Machado at shortstop.

While the Cubs have offensive holes at short and in right field, Jason Heyward is unlikely to opt out of his $106 million pact through 2023. Realistically, Chicago (NL) has occasionally exceeded the Luxury Tax minimum, but Machado could put them over 2019’s $206 million mark by about $20 million annually.

As for the Cleveland Indians, they will need corner outfielders, and they have the salary space to increase their payroll. But the question is their financial philosophy and their willingness to spend $35 million per campaign on Harper. Or are they like the St. Louis Cardinals who steer clear of bidding wars?

While the new Atlanta Braves’ GM preferred evaluation for ’18, he may address replacing right fielder and free-agent Nick Markakis, 35, who had a career year. Additionally, the exec will not want to fall back after winning the division. But will the Braves raise their spending to $20 million more than their previous high?

Regarding the Milwaukee Brewers, they had some interest in Machado for their middle infield shortcomings in July before competing with the Cubbies for the NL Central title. That stated, $35 million per annum could be too steep for the Brew Crew. So, will they decide on a bat or a rotation arm this offseason?

Bidding battles:

Dropping under the competitive-balance threshold for 2019’s free agents, San Francisco with an aging squad is willing to increase spending to remain relevant. And their corner outfield situation has been a sore spot for quite a while, but their strategy is retooling instead of rebuilding. Ergo, they’ll target Harper.

As for the Giants’ hated rivals, the Dodgers also have interest in Harper: Machado only filled in at short due to Seager’s season-ending injury. Moreover, pursuing the corner outfielder could be their reason for resetting their base rate tax, and they are in a good position to wait for the Scott Boras’ client.

With two young sluggers manning the outfield corners, the Yankees might have interest in Machado for the hot corner due to Adujar’s 15 errors. And Machado is willing to play third base for New York (AL). In other words, the Yanks are eager to spend, and Machado prefers them.

In today’s market, having payroll flexibility is not permanent if an organization re-signs its top homegrown talent. Basically, teams unwilling to pay the Luxury Tax penalty without a trip to the World Series will have three superstars, and big spenders will have four. In other words, the Phillies are in category one.

Potential big-ticket contracts:

• New York (AL): Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Luis Severino.
• Los Angeles (NL): Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger.
• Philadelphia: Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins.

Yes, the Dodgers and Yankees will pay the penalty. But the calculation could change in Chavez Ravine due to Kershaw’s velocity: His fastball had averaged 95.2 mph in 2008 and gradually declined to 90.9 mph by 2018. And while he probably won’t opt out of $65 million for ’18 and ’19, his future earnings are uncertain.

Expensive and free: 

For the Phillies, three 10-year pacts equal $95 million annually for Nola, Hoskins, and Machado or Harper. But the competitive-balance threshold will be $210 million in 2021, and $95 million equals 45.2 percent. No, the red pinstripes will not exceed the soft limit.

Keep in mind, Hoskins now has Boras representing him, while the Phils will prefer buying out many arbitration and free-agent years. And Nola will be expensive as well. Therefore, $30 million per campaign is in the crystal ball for both.

For the hometown nine, Harper is a fit in right field and the lineup’s RBI spots: the two and four holes. However, he is a Boras client, and acquiring him will be a drawn-out process for the Dodgers and Giants, while the Indians and Braves will probably look at outfield alternatives and other positions for a bat.

Batting order versus a right-handed pitcher:

• LH Harper (2), RH Hoskins (4) and LH Santana (5).
• RH Machado (2), LH Santana (4) and RH Hoskins (5).

Batting order versus a left-handed pitcher:

• RH Hoskins (2), LH Harper (4) and RH Santana (5).
• RH Machado (2), RH Hoskins (4) and RH Santana (5).

As for direct competition, Chicago was eighth in NL runs in the second half but first before the break. And they lost the division-deciding battle to Milwaukee and the Wild Card Game to the Colorado Rockies. But will they open their wallet for Machado, or will they pass on him like they did last July?

While New York (AL) needs a left-side hitter, they have corner outfielders. However, third sacker Adujar had 15 errors, but the rookie also averaged .297 with 27 bombs and 92 RBIs. And they need one of the top-notch starters up for grabs as well. A bat or an arm?

Regarding Machado, he would be a solid fit in the two hole regardless of the opposing hurler. And Klentak offered the organization’s number-three prospect, a flamethrower, in mid-July for the 2019 free agent. So, what should you expect from the GM regarding the pursuit of Machado? Max effort!