Philadelphia Phillies: Winter’s buy-a-bat forecast

BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 10: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals and Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles talk during their game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 10, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 10: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals and Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles talk during their game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 10, 2015 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Corbin is another top moundsman on the free-agent market who will field GM’s bids. Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies plate-discipline comparison to free agents:   

  • Machado: 14.7 K% and 9.9 BB% with a .367 OBP.
  • Harper: 24.3 K% and 18.7 BB% with a .393 OBP.
  • Hoskins: 22.7 K% and 13.2 BB% with a .354 OBP.
  • Santana: 13.7 K% and 16.2 BB% with a .352 OBP.

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

Rating K% BB%
Excellent 10.0% 15.0%
Great 12.5% 12.5%
Above Average 16.0% 10.0%
Average 20.0% 8.0%
Below Average 22.0% 7.0%
Poor 25.0% 5.5%
Awful 27.5% 4.0%

Phillies statistical comparison to free agents: 

  • Hoskins, 25.5: 153 Gms., 660 PA, a .246 Avg., a .354 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .251 ISO, a .272 BABIP, 34 HR, 96 RBI, an .850 OPS and a 2.9 fWAR.
  • Santana, 32.5: 161 Gms., 679 PA, a .229 Avg., a .352 OBP, a .414 SLG, a .186 ISO, a .231 BABIP, 24 HR, 86 RBI, a .766 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.
  • Machado, 26: 162 Gms., 709 PA, a .297 Avg., a .367 OBP, a .538 SLG, a .241 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 37 HR, 107 RBI, a .905 OPS and a 6.2 fWAR.
  • Harper, almost 26: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 34 HR, 100 RBI, an .889 OPS and a 3.5 fWAR.

Next. Phillies: Trade bait up for debate. dark

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.