Ranking baseball’s decision-makers for 2018: Part 2
How well each general manager did his job during 2018: Places 20-11
A baseball general manager’s job is to improve his team. But that doesn’t always happen.
This continues a three-part series assessing how well each general manager did during the 2018 season. The ratings are based on the total number of Wins Above Average generate by each player brought to the major league roster either by trade, purchase, free agency, waiver claim, or promotion from the minor league. It also factors in the value – again measured by Wins Above Average – of each player lost to the team due to sale, waiver or free agency.
Wins Above Average is a variant of Wins Above Replacement, the principal difference being that while Wins Above Replacement measures a player against the baseline established for a minor league replacement, Wins Above Average uses the average of all major league players as its baseline.
Because the Cincinnati Reds changed general managers during the season, there are 31 general managers evaluated for their performance during the 2018 season.
At the outset, it is worth acknowledging that not every general manager’s goal is to win immediately. That means some GMs whose goal was long-term restructuring may actually assess themselves as having accomplished what they intended – by moving costly stars for upcoming prospects — even if the result was a talent drain during 2018.
This measurement rates GMs only for the extent to which they improved or damaged their team’s performance during the 2018 season.
This segment rates the mid-pack of GM performance, those between No. 20 and No. 11. It includes the GMs of three post-season teams as well as the only general manager whose moves actually maneuvered his ballclub out of the playoffs, a very bad thing to do, indeed.
20. Jeff Bridich, Colorado Rockies, -4.1 games
His Rockies having somewhat surprisingly reached the wild card round in 2017, Bridich went for it in 2018, signing or re-signing 8 free agents, several at substantial cost. Those moves included a new 6-year, $108 million deal to center fielder Charlie Blackmon, a 4-year, $66 million contract for closer Wade Davis and 2-year contracts to reliever Jeff Shaw and catcher Chris Iannetta.
As a group, they were aggressive gambles that proved costly in the standings as well as at the till. Davis returned a +-0.5 WAA, but the other seven all went negative, four of them (Shaw, Iannetta, Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez) in excess of -1.0. The net impact on the Rockies’ fortunes from those 8 signings was -6.5 games.
So how did Colorado get back to the post-season on a 91-win season?
A general manager’s performance can be measured on two levels. There is an immediate, short-term movement reflecting the impact of the things he did since the end of the previous season. But in these days of long-term deals, there is a second, more lasting factor reflecting the impact of moves made prior to the conclusion of the previous season. In the case of Bridich, this long-term impact – measured by the contributions of Trevor Story, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland, amounted to +14.8 games.
In other words, the Rockies reached the 2018 season at some point prior to the conclusion of the 2017 season.
That enabled them to survive Bridich’s sub-par work during 2018. Beyond the 8 signings, he utilized 10 farm system products who combined for -2.3 WAA. His trade acquisition of reliever Seunghwan Oh produced +0.6 WAA, but that only began to offset the damage done elsewhere.
The only thing that brought Bridich’s score back toward mediocrity was his recognition that the Rockies needed to walk away from a lot of free agent talent. Five former Rockies signed deals with new teams during 2018, and they, too, were bad. The decision not to re-sign catcher Jonathan Lucroy saved the Rockies -2.2 WAA; not pursuing Mark Reynolds saved another -1.1.
T-18. Mike Girsch, St. Louis Cardinals, -2.4 games
Girsch succeeded John Mozeliak in the Cardinals’ GM office after Mozeliak was promoted to a senior executive position within the organization.
His over-arching theme seemed to be opening up space in the crowded St. Louis outfield picture, one complicated by the opportunistic winter acquisition of Marcel Ozuna from Miami. Ozuna joined an outfield picture already populated by Randal Grichuk, Steven Piscotty, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, and prospects Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill and Patrick Wisdom.
To loosen that playing time bottleneck, Girsch over several months traded Grichuk, Piscotty and Pham. While that cleared the way for Ozuna and Bader to play full-time, it also drained talent: Grichuk, Piscotty and Pham combined to produce +3.3 WAA for their new teams. The deadline trade of Luke Voit to New York cost another +0.8 WAA.
What of Bader, Ozuna, Fowler, O’Neill and Jose Martinez, the veteran who split time between first base and right field? They combined to net +1.5 WAA, partially – but only partially – offsetting the losses. This kind of outfield restructuring might have been justified if the Cardinals were in rebuilding mode…but they were not.
Girsch’s best move was the discovery of Miles Mikolas pitching in the Japanese League. He signed Mikolas as a rotation starter and got an 18-4 record and 2.83 ERA, that translating to a +2.5 WAA. But that only offset the failures of Girsch’s other seven free agent signings. Signed to a $14 million deal as the team’s closer, Greg Holland made 32 appearances but fumbled through a 7.92 ERA and was gone by August. Even factoring in Mikolas, the total impact of Girsch’s free agent signings was -1.9 games.
He did hit with a virtually total makeover of the pitching staff that included Austin Gomber, Jack Flaherty, holdover Luke Weaver and reliever Jordan Hicks as well as Mikolas.
Here’s the bottom line: Girsch’s moves cost the Cardinals 2.4 games in the standings. St. Louis missed out on a playoff berth by a margin of 2 games. To put it bluntly, Mike Girsch maneuvered St. Louis out of post-season play.
T-18. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers, -2.4 games
When the Rangers hired Daniels prior to the 2006 season, he was the youngest GM in baseball history. He is now among the game’s senior team executives, only Brian Cashman having a longer tenure with the same team.
His most impactful move turned out to be the December trade that brought pitcher Matt Moore in from San Francisco in exchange for a couple of minor leaguers. A seven-year veteran, Moore had a good 2013 (17-4 for the Rays), but did nothing much since then and he gave Texas exactly what his profile suggested: a 3-8 record, a 6.79 ERA in a dozen starts and a -2.2 WAA.
Most of the rest of what Daniels did simply cancel itself, extending the franchise’s slow decline from the heights of 2011-12.
Rookie Jose LeClerc came up and performed well out of the bullpen, producing a +1.6 WAA. Mike Minor signed as a free agent, made 28 starts, and became the staff ace. His 12-8 record and 4.18 ERA provided another +2.3 of WAA
But outfielder Carlos Tocci, purchased in December from the White Sox, hit .225 and his -1.8 WAA more than offset LeClerc’s contribution.
Meanwhile, the mid-season trades of Cole Hamels and Jesse Chavez, both to the Chicago Cubs, deprived the Rangers’ staff of a projected +3.4 WAA. One step forward, one step back.
17. Bobby Evans, San Francisco Giants, -0.9 games
Evans was fired shortly before the end of the 2018 season following four seasons on the job. That’s what happens when you parley one of the largest payrolls in baseball into a 73-89 season.
Desperate for a win in a city clinging to the fading memories of three World Series titles, Evans went old. He traded for Andrew McCutchen and also for Evan Longoria, a pair of 30-somethings with All-Star cred in their personal rear-view mirrors. They were decent, but neither retained the ability to re-shape a franchise.
Nor, for that matter, was anybody else on the Giants roster. Holdover stars Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt combined to generate a combined +4.1 WAA, but the combined impact of the other San Francisco holdovers trended negative.
The best of Evans’ 2018 supplements was pitcher Dereck Rodriguez, who went 6-4 in 19 starts. That translated to 1.5 WAA of value. But Evans used 11 free agent signings in 2018, and their combined impact was -2.3 WAA. His farm system class of a dozen scored -1.2.
In their relentless pursuit of the Dodgers, or their past, or something, the Giants are due for a makeover, and perhaps Evans’ departure is the first step toward that. His performance over the course of the 2018 season was neither his worst nor especially bad; it was simply meh in a declining atmosphere that needed more. The Giants’ next GM will have a big job to do and a lot of money to use in order to do it.
16. Billy Eppler, Los Angeles Angels, -0.8 games
By his prominent role in the signing of Japanese free agent Shohei Ohtani, Billy Eppler became the most frequently seen face among general managers during the 2017-18 off-season. Ohtani unquestionably helped the Angels, batting .285 in 367 plate appearances with 22 home runs while also making 10 starts with a 3.31 ERA.
The tandem effort yielded a +2.3 WAA for the Angels, nearly balancing Eppler’s off-season books all by itself.
Eppler’s problem was that he didn’t make just one move on the Angels behalf; he made 47. Only three of the others – the free agent signing of Justin Upton, the trade for Ian Kinsler and the decision to trade pitcher Carlos Perez – improved the Angels to any significant degree.
His biggest weakness lay in his efforts to extract talent from other teams via trade or purchases. Eppler brought in 15 players via one of those methods, but Kinsler was the only one who yielded talent in excess of +0.1 WAA.
The net, -4.5 games, was so bad that it sank the Angels into the mediocre regions of the AL West, in time prompting the trade of Kinsler to the Red Sox, who could actually make use of his talent. In exchange Eppler received Ty Buttrey and Williams Jerez, two guys you’ll probably never hear of unless your name is Mrs. Ty Buttrey or Mrs. Williams Jerez.
The farm system did produce reason for hope. The Angels used 10 first-year players during 2018, the best of which – pitcher Jaime Barria – went 10-9 in 26 starts and produced a +1.4 WAA. The net impact of the 10 was +1.2 WAA, the fourth most first-year talent produced by any farm system in 2018.
15. Nick Krall, Cincinnati Reds, -0.8 games
Krall was promoted in May when the Reds created an executive position for his predecessor, Dick Williams. Coming to the job late, his impact on the 2018 club was truncated.
Statistically, his most impactful move was the May call-up of infielder-outfielder Brandon Dixon. It was not, however, a fortuitous move. The rookie used his 124 plate appearances to produce just a .178 batting average, although he did deliver five home runs. The bottom line: -1.0 WAA.
In July, Krall shipped pitcher Dylan Floro to Los Angeles for a pair of minor leaguers. Decent in Cincinnati, Floro produced a +0.8 WAA for the Dodgers.
But those statistical whiffs were somewhat offset by the trade acquisitions of pitcher Matt Wisler and catcher Curt Casali. Purchased from Tampa Bay at the end of May, Casali filled a backup role behind the plate and hit .293, that translating to +0.4 WAA.
Wisler, a deadline acquisition from Atlanta that cost the Braves only Adam Duvall, was modestly helpful in just 13 innings but did yield a +0.3 WAA.
One of the other two prospects brought in for Duvall, Preston Tucker, did little for the Reds and was quickly sold back to Atlanta. Of Krall’s other acquisition, Preston Tucker, time will be the judge.
14. Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals, -0.6 games
Rizzo’s performance was mixed, which obviously isn’t good enough for the boss of a putative contender. It wasn’t that he had an especially bad season; it simply wasn’t good enough.
Much of Rizzo’s effort was focused on the free agent market. Coming off a playoff season, he signed or re-signed 11 players who produced major league value for Washington. Several worked out.
Jeremy Hellickson signed a minimum dollar deal in March and returned a 5-3 record and 3.45 ERA in 19 starts before going down with an injury. When Greg Holland crashed and burned in St. Louis, Rizzo picked him up on the cheap and got 21 quality innings covering the season’s final two months.
There were no breakthroughs among those 11 signings, but no disasters either, and the net contribution was positive, albeit by just +0.5 WAA.
Factor in the improvement created by Rizzo’s decisions to release or part ways with five other players and the total impact of his free agent activity rises to +2.1.
Rizzo’s real problem lay in his use of the Nats’ farm system. Give him credit for Juan Soto, who had an excellent rookie season that makes him a post-season award contender. The problem is that Rizzo used 17 first-year players, a dozen of whom contributed negative value to the Nats. As good as Soto was, catcher Pedro Severino by himself essentially offset all of Soto’s good deeds. Severino batted .168 with two homers in 213 plate appearances.
All of that made Rizzo the most neutral general manager in baseball in 2018. He didn’t hurt the Nationals, but he also failed to help them chase the NL East title.
13. Jerry DiPoto, Seattle Mariners, +0.8 games
Of the three fundamental GM skill s—maneuvering the trade market, assessing potential free agents and harvesting farm system talent – trading is decidedly the most challenging. That’s because GMs are dealing directly with other GMs who as a rule possess the same information and are pursuing the same goal.
In his effort of lifting the Mariners to their first post-season berth since 2001, DiPoto worked the trade market frantically, bringing 18 new faces to Seattle. But admiring the effort is one thing, admiring the results is another.
DiPoto’s first major move following the end of the 2017 campaign was his acquisition of infielder Ryon Healy from Oakland in exchange for two nobodies. Healy batted .271 for the A’s, but fell off to .235 for the Mariners. That average translated to -2.4 WAA, among the largest one-player hits inflicted on any team in 2018.
In December, DiPoto sent three minor leaguers and cash to Miami for Dee Gordon. Because Gordon was a skilled second baseman, that deal seemed prescient when Robinson Cano went down for half a season on a PED suspension. By season’s end, however, the assessment was otherwise. Gordon’s average fell 40 points from 2017, he led the league in being caught stealing, and he generated a -1.4 WAA.
Add up the impact of all 18 of DiPoto’s acquisitions and they come to -4.0 games of WAA, a big hit against a team viewed as a potential contender.
Elsewhere, Di Poto did well. He signed or re-signed 10 players, and they netted +1.4 WAA. The most productive was Jean Segura, who rewarded DiPoto’s willingness to re-sign him to a five-season deal with a .304 average and a +2.3 WAA.
12. Farhan Zaidi, Los Angeles Dodgers, +1.8 games
In the season’s final two months – when the possibility existed that the Dodgers might for the first time since 2012 fail to qualify for post-season play, Farhan Zaidi did just enough to revitalize his team.
Given the Dodgers‘ talent base, just enough may be enough to snare the franchise’s first World Series win in 30 years.
The most obvious move was also the most significant, Zaidi’s trade for free-agent-to-be Manny Machado to shore up the hole at shortstop let by a season-ending injury to Corey Seager. Machado batted .273 with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs over the stretch drive, contributing +2.0 WAA to the cause.
A less-heralded acquisition, David Freese from the Pirates, brought maturity plus an additional +0.4 WAA. Dylan Floro, who came over from Cincinnati, fleshed out the bullpen at a gain of an additional +0.8 WAA.
The signing of Max Muncy, reduced to minor league status since his 2016 release by the Oakland A’s, proved yet another boon. Called up from Oklahoma City where he spent 2017, Muncy surprised everybody with 35 home runs and competent work at second base. The gain to LA was +2.7 WAA.
Obviously, not all of Zaidi’s decisions worked out as well as those four; if they had, his overall score would be a lot higher than +1.8. The loss of Brandon Morrow to free agency, with its ripple effects in a Dodger bullpen that became suspicious, hurt even though Morrow’s arm, injury mitigated the loss to a degree. But if Los Angeles does go on to win the World Series, Zaidi will look like a genius, the numbers notwithstanding.
11. Jed Hoyer, Chicago Cubs, +2.0
Although general manager, Hoyer is the junior partner in one of baseball’s best-known management teams, working with President of Baseball Ops Theo Epstein. However you wish to assign responsibility, 2018 was only a modestly successful season, seeing the Cubs spend a lot of money with only sporadic success.
That sounds harsh given that the team won 95 games and reached post-season play for the fourth straight season, the longest streak of success in the franchise’s long history. Perhaps it says something about the job Hoyer and Epstein have done that winning 95 games and playing a post-season game is now looked upon as at least marginally unsuccessful.
The pair’s best moves were also their most spectacular flops. They signed Yu Darvish to a six-year, $126 million deal and he returned a 1-3 record in eight starts plus a shoulder injury. They signed Tyler Chatwood for three years at $12 million per year and got a league-leading 95 bases on balls in 104 innings.
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Hoyer proved to be at his best when repairing the damage wrought by those two. A July deal for Cole Hamels to fill the rotation gaps netted +1.9 WAA. Bullpen re-enforcements such as Jesse Chavez and Steve Cishek also yielded positive results.
From the farm system, the most useful piece was infielder David Bote, whose job largely amounted to replacing injured third baseman Kris Bryant. Good luck with that, huh? Bode only hit .239, but his 38 percent “hard contact” rate suggests there’s more in him.
In retrospect, the loss of Jake Arrieta to free agency looks bad, particularly when seen in the context of the signings of Darvish and Chatwood. Arrieta signed a five-year, $115 million deal with the Phillies, and gave them +1.6 WAA. Life does n’t work in this linear a fashion, but if you sum the impacts of the Darvish, Chatwood and Arrieta decisions with specific respect to 2018, the Cubs come out on the short end by 2.9 WAA and $7.5 million.
Mets 2018 minor league awards. dark. Next
That’s the second grouping of our ranking of each team’s general manager for their 2018 performance. Is there anyone you think is too high? Too low? Comment below!!