MLB Playoffs: ALCS Game 1, Astros vs. Red Sox
With two aces rested and ready, the two best teams in baseball face each other at Fenway Park in Game 1 of the ALCS.
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The two best teams in baseball square off in Game 1 of the ALCS today. The Houston Astros won 103 games with a +263 run-differential that put their expected record at 112-50. The Boston Red Sox won 108 games with a +229 run-differential that put their expected record at 105-57.
Both teams were obviously incredibly good this season. The Red Sox had more actual wins. The Astros had more “expected” wins. One of the main differences between the two is the Red Sox going 25-14 in one-run games. That’s a .641 winning percentage, which isn’t far off their .675 winning percentage in their other games.
The Astros, on the other hand, were just 24-24 in one-run games. In games decided by more than one run, they were 79-35, a winning percentage of .693. As we head into the ALCS, it should be noted that the Astros current bullpen is better than the bullpen they had most of the season. Two key additions are Roberto Osuna, fresh off a 75-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence rule, and Ryan Pressly, who has been dominant in his time with the Astros (0.77 ERA, 32 K, 3 BB in 23.3 innings).
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Both teams were in the top half of the league in WAR by position players, per Fangraphs. The Red Sox were third overall; the Astros were 11th. Looking at offense, the Red Sox also ranked third in baseball in wRC+, which adjusts for league and ballpark effects. Their mark of 110 was topped only by the Dodgers and Yankees. A 110 wRC+ means they were 10 percent better than league average. Two spots behind the Red Sox were the Astros, also with a 110 wRC+.
On the mound, the Astros had baseball’s second best group of starting pitchers, based on Fangraphs WAR. Only Cleveland was better. The Red Sox starters were a bit further down, finishing sixth in baseball. The Astros should also have the advantage in the late innings, as their bullpen ranked third in baseball, with the Red Sox finishing ninth.
The defensive edge belongs to the Red Sox, who were sixth in baseball. They were particularly good in the outfield, with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Andrew Benintendi flashing the leather. The Astros finished 22nd in baseball, which make their defense their Achilles heel.
Houston Astros
Looking to ambush the Red Sox at Fenway Park, the Astros are sending veteran ace Justin Verlander to the hill. At 35 years old, Verlander had one of the best seasons of his career, with a 2.52 ERA (2.78 FIP) and 290 strikeouts in 214 innings. Verlander’s 34.8 percent strikeout rate was the best in baseball for a qualifying starting pitcher. He also led all qualifying starting pitchers in strikeout rate minus walk rate (30.4 percent). He’ll be tough to beat.
The Astros were a slightly better team on offense away from home than they were at Minute Maid Park. Overall, they were fifth in wRC+ (108), but on the road they were third (111). Their lineup doesn’t have many weak spots, although that 126 wRC+ for Martin Maldonado is in a small sample size of just 65 plate appearances on the road with the Astros. If you include his time with the Angels, Maldonado had an 85 wRC+ on the road.
CF George Springer (305 PA, 107 wRC+ on the road)
2B Jose Altuve (296 PA, 144 wRC+ on the road)
3B Alex Bregman (350 PA, 142 wRC+ on the road)
1B Yuli Gurriel (279 PA, 89 wRC+ on the road)
DH Tyler White (116 PA, 113 wRC+ on the road)
LF Marwin Gonzalez (292 PA, 116wRC+ on the road)
SS Carlos Correa (233 PA, 118 wRC+ on the road)
C Martin Maldonado (65 PA, 126 wRC+ on the road)
RF Josh Reddick (249 PA, 95 wRC+ on the road)
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are sending their best starter to the bump for Game 1 of this series. Chris Sale was limited to 158 innings this season, but still had what may have been his second-best season ever. He finished with a miniscule 2.11 ERA (1.98 FIP) and 237 strikeouts against just 34 walks. His strikeout rate (38.4 percent) and strikeout rate minus walk rate (32.9 percent) were even better than Justin Verlander’s. Sale topped all starting pitchers with 150 or more innings in both categories.
As mentioned above, the Red Sox were third in baseball with a 110 wRC+, but at their home ballpark they were even better. Only the Yankees had a better home wRC+ than the Red Sox, who finished at 115. Their lineup for Game 1 is shown below. The top five hitters in the batting order crushed it at Fenway. The bottom four had less success.
RF Mookie Betts (284 PA, 190 wRC+ at home)
LF Andrew Benintendi (340 PA, 124 wRC+ at home)
DH J.D. Martinez (331 PA, 178 wRC+ at home)
SS Xander Bogaerts (283 PA, 149 wRC+ at home)
1B Steve Pearce (75 PA, 163 wRC+ at home)
2B Brock Holt (184 PA, 91 wRC+ at home)
3B Eduardo Nunez (236 PA, 97 wRC+ at home)
CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. (259 PA, 109 wRC+ at home)
C Sandy Leon (136 PA, 21 wRC+ at home)
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