Philadelphia Phillies: Starting pitchers for sale

Competitive balance:    

While clubs are bidding on Machado and/or Harper, they will also make offers to the top moundsmen for their rotation. But some teams may opt for the pitching instead of those prized bats. In other words, if they add an $18 million hurler to a $35 million hitter, can they increase annual payroll by $53 million?

Like the Phillies, the Atlanta Braves have many young arms competing for jobs. But it still will take 2-3 summers for them to make an impact in the major leagues. So, Atlanta must decide if it wants to pursue Harper or a veteran starter to replace Sanchez. Sound similar?

With Los Angeles (NL) losing Ryu and possibly not extending Clayton Kershaw due to a gradual velocity drop on his four-seam fastball to 90.9 mph since 2008, they could prefer signing a solid hurler for 4-5 campaigns instead. Realistically, they might have a greater need for a pitcher.

As for the Chicago Cubs, they must sort through their starters including Hamels and are unlikely to ink another. Additionally, Kris Bryant will be a free agent in three seasons, but they’ll want him to re-up in a year’s time. And they might not want to annually pay the increases on the Luxury Tax.

While the New York Yankees have reset their base tax rate for this offseason’s free agents, the starting staff is their first concern, not third base defense: Corbin is their target. And they may not care to exceed the competitive-balance threshold by $50 million per annum: Signing two may be too much.

Yes, shortstop Didi Gregorius will have TJ surgery, but position players have a shorter rehab time. In fact, he may only miss 2-3 months of ’19, and Machado’s $300 million to $400 million isn’t a short-term answer. Usually, GMs don’t make a move like that.

Even though the Milwaukee Brewers need a shortstop, they basically have an American League lineup. But their offense may not be able to completely carry their rotation. And while Nelson will return from right shoulder inflammation, expect them to pursue a starter more heavily than they did last July.

Southpaw options:      

With the need for a left-handed starter, many fans will point to Cole Irvin‘s numbers with Lehigh Valley. However, the Phillies won’t prematurely burn a 40-man spot when the hurler doesn’t require protection until after the 2019 campaign. Why wait? Most players don’t make an impact until or after their third year..

As for Ranger Suarez, he is on the 40-man roster and received three 2018 starts. Auditions! Klentak had to protect him last winter from the Rule-5 Draft. Besides, the red pinstripes have three developing arms ahead of their Triple-A challengers.

Keuchel, 30, received a national publication estimate of $18 million each for four summers. For the record, he has had three sub-3.00 ERA seasons out of five since his first two 162s and produced a 3.74 ERA in ’18. And he relies on an 89-90 mph sinker with a slider, cutter, changeup and four-seam fastball.

Targeted by the Yankees, Corbin had a solid  2018 going 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA and even better ERA estimators. He depends on both a sinker and a four-seam fastball at 92.1 mph with a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. As for his estimated price tag, it’s $16 million for each of five campaigns.

Corbin had his best 162 after pedestrian results in 2016 and 2017. So, was he having a career year in his fifth season, or is he something else? A late bloomer?

Having the same six pitches as Corbin, Ryu, 31, finesses the opposition and had solid results for 15 outings: 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA for 82 1/3 frames. He has a 3.20 ERA for 96 career starts: 19 games per 162. Dollar-wise, he made $7 million in 2018 and could get $10 million each for 2-3 summers. But can he stay healthy?

Last winter, Klentak signed Santana ($20 million) and Arrieta ($25 million) for $45 million AAV (average annual value). But if the exec inks Machado ($35 million AAV) and Keuchel ($22 million AAV) for 10 and three years respectively, the decision-maker would add $57 million AAV. One of each, again?

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Pitching stats: 

• Keuchel, 30.6: 34 Gms., 204 2/3 Inn., 12-11, a 3.74 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.84 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.6 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
• Corbin, 29: 33 Gms., 200 Inn., 11-7, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 2.61 xFIP, a 2.91 SIERA, a 6.3  fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.
• Ryu, 31.5: 15 Gms., 82 1/3 Inn., 7-3, a 1.97 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, a 3.11 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
• Kershaw, 30.5: 26 Gms., 161 1/3 Inn., 9-5, a 2.73 ERA, a 3.19 FIP, a 3.19 xFIP, a 3.45 SIERA, a 3.5 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.

Phillies pitching stats:

Irvin, 24.5:

• Triple-A: 26 Gms. (1 relief), 161 1/3 Inn., 14-4, a 2.57 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.56 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP.

Suarez, 23:

• Phillies: 4 Gms. (1 relief), 15 Inn., 1-1, a 5.40 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.66 xFIP, a 4.74 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.80 WHIP.
• AAA: 9 Gms., 49 1/3 Inn., 2-0, a 2.74 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 4.16 xFIP and a 1.28 WHIP.
• AA: 12 Gms., 75 Inn., 4-3, a 2.76 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.