Milwaukee Brewers: building a champion
The Milwaukee Brewers have received more value out of their trade acquisitions and free agent signings than any of the other postseason teams.
Major league baseball teams, more than anything else, need players. Without them, they couldn’t play any games. They would have to forfeit every game and that wouldn’t be any fun at all for the fans. Players are an absolute must, even more important than beer, brats, and nachos.
While every team needs players to play the games, where each MLB team gets their players is a matter of preference. It’s a variable they control, unlike the umpire’s strike zone or the weather or the philosophical unpredictability of the yet to be. There are four main pipelines for major league talent, plus a couple of lesser-used means of acquisition.
Teams can draft and develop their own players. They can sign young, foreign players as amateur free agents. They can sign established major league players as free agents. They can make trades to acquire new players. If all else fails, they can go the lesser-used route and acquire players through waivers or outright purchasing said players.
With four teams still vying for the 2018 World Series trophy, I thought it would be interesting to look at how each of these four teams acquired the players on their 25-man League Championship Series roster and how much value those players have contributed this season. First up are the Milwaukee Brewers.
A quick look at how each of the remaining MLB playoff teams were constructed. The Brewers have received more value through trades than the other three teams, but very little value from players they drafted. pic.twitter.com/rkB24mW7B7
— BobbyBaseball (@bballonthebrain) October 16, 2018
You may think a small-market team like the Brewers would use the tried-and-true, draft-and-develop method to build a roster, but that is decidedly not the case. Just three players on the Brewers’ LCS roster were drafted by the team and they accounted for just five percent of the total WAR among these 25 players during the regular season.
More than any other team in this postseason, the Brewers’ current roster is the product of successful trades. One of the keys to their successful run to the NL Central title and their continued success in the postseason has been their bullpen. The key players in said bullpen are largely the result of trades. This includes Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Joakim Soria, Freddy Peralta and Xavier Cedeno.
In fact, 60 percent of the Brewers’ 25-man NLCS roster came to the organization by way of the trade and those players have contributed 57 percent of the Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per Baseball-Reference) that these 25 players accrued in their time with the Brewers during the regular season. This is tops among the four remaining playoff teams. The next-closest teams are the Dodgers and Red Sox, with 37 percent of their team WAR coming through trades.
Along with their lockdown bullpen, outfielder and NL MVP candidate Christian Yelich was a trade acquisition, as were Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw and folk hero Erik Kratz. Four of the five most valuable players on the Brewers this season came to the team in trades and seven of the 25 players on their NLCS roster were acquired during the 2018 season, most of them in July or August.
Here’s the Brewers’ breakdown for the number of players acquired through the different pathways:
- Acquired through trade: 15 players (60%)
- Signed as free agents: 4 players (16%)
- Drafted and developed: 3 players (12%)
- Acquired through waivers: 2 players (8%)
- Signed as an international free agent: 1 player (4%)
Here’s the Brewers’ breakdown for value accrued by these players:
- Acquired through trade: 57% of total WAR
- Signed as free agents: 30% of total WAR
- Drafted and developed: 5% of total WAR
- Acquired through waivers: 8% of total WAR
- Signed as an international free agent: 0% of total WAR
Let’s look at those different categories in more detail.
Brewers—Key Players Acquired by Trade
LF Christian Yelich (7.6 WAR)—It could be argued that the Brewers adding Yelich in a trade with the Marlins was the best move of the offseason, not just for the Brewers but for any team. To get him, they had to send the Marlins outfielder Lewis Brinson and minor leaguers Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison and Jordan Yamamoto. Three of these players were top-100 prospects. Brinson was ranked 18th on the Baseball America top-100 prior to this season. Diaz made the Baseball Prospectus top-100, ranking 85th. Harrison was ranked 75th by Baseball America and 49th by Baseball Prospectus. The Brewers wouldn’t be in the playoffs without Christian Yelich.
INF Travis Shaw (4.1 WAR)—Prior to the 2017 season, the Boston Red Sox packaged Shaw with minor leaguers Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington and a player to be named later in a trade to the Brewers for relief pitcher Tyler Thornburg. The PTBNL ended up being Yeison Coca. Since the trade, Shaw has 63 home runs and 187 RBI in two seasons with Milwaukee (8.0 WAR). Tyler Thornburg missed all of the 2017 season. He pitched 24 innings for the Red Sox this year and had a 5.63 ERA and 6.04 FIP (0.0 WAR). This was a major win for the Brewers.
RHP Jeremy Jeffress (3.4 WAR)—When the Brewers were vying for the NL Central title last season, they acquired Jeffress from the Texas Rangers for minor leaguer Taylor Scott at the trade deadline. He was okay in 24.7 innings with the Brewers down the stretch last year (3.65 ERA, 4.25 FIP), but much better with them this year (1.29 ERA, 2.78 FIP).
LHP Josh Hader (2.1 WAR)—Hader came to Milwaukee in a trade with the Astros on July 30, 2015. At the time, the Houston Astros were becoming relevant again after a teardown and rebuild. They made a deadline deal with the Brewers to push their team to the playoffs. The Astros added pitcher Mike Fiers, outfielder Carlos Gomez and cash for Domingo Santana, Josh Hader, Brett Phillips and Adrian Houser.
At the time, Hader was a 21-year-old pitcher in Double-A who was still mostly being used as a starting pitcher. He wouldn’t be shifted full-time to the bullpen until the middle of the 2017 season and hAs excelled ever since, with a career ERA of 2.30 (2.52 FIP) and a strikeout rate of 42.7 percent. He’s this postseason’s Andrew Miller.
Other trade acquisitions:
C Manny Pina (1.1 WAR)—December, 2015, from Tigers
OF Domingo Santana (1.0 WAR)—July, 2015, from Astros
LHP Gio Gonzalez (0.7 WAR)—August, 2018, from Nationals
3B Mike Moustakas (0.4 WAR)—July, 2018, from Royals
RP Freddy Peralta (0.4 WAR)—December, 2015, from Mariners
OF Curtis Granderson (0.3 WAR)—August, 2018, from Blue Jays
LHP Xavier Cedeno (0.3 WAR)—August 2018, from White Sox
RHP Corey Knebel (0.3 WAR)—January, 2015, from Rangers
C Erik Kratz (0.1 WAR)—May, 2018, from Yankees
INF Jonathan Schoop (0.1 WAR)—July, 2018, from Orioles
RHP Joakim Soria (-0.2 WAR)—July, 2018, from Rangers
Brewers—Key Free Agent Signings
The Brewers have received a higher percentage of value from their free agent signings than any of the other three teams still in the postseason. They have four players on their 25-man NLCS roster who were acquired through free agency. These players account for 30 percent of the total WAR of the 25 players on the Brewers’ postseason roster. This is primarily because of the Lorenzo Cain signing, which was a terrific decision by the Milwaukee brain trust. Cain should finish high in NL MVP voting.
OF Lorenzo Cain (6.9 WAR)—The Brewers not only hit it big with their trade acquisition of Christian Yelich, they also hit it big with this free agent signing of Lorenzo Cain. Yelich and Cain were their two best players this season, with a nearly 3 WAR drop to their third-best player (Travis Shaw). Using the current estimate of roughly $8 million/WAR on the free agent market, Cain has already provided the Brewers with $55.2 million worth of value. He was paid $15 million this season.
RHP Jhoulys Chacin (2.0 WAR)—Chacin was signed by the Brewers last December to a two-year deal worth $15.5 million. He’s already been worth his entire contract and still has another season left on the deal. He led the team in starts and innings pitched this season, while posting a 3.50 ERA (4.03 FIP). He also just pitched 5.3 scoreless innings in the Brewers’ Game 3 win in the NLCS.
LHP Wade Miley (1.5 WAR)—The Brewers signed Miley in February, right around the time pitchers and catchers were reporting to spring training. Coming off an ugly string of seasons, he came dirt cheap, as he was signed to a minor league contract with a salary of $2.5 million if he pitched in the major leagues, plus some performance bonuses. In 16 starts with the Brewers during the regular season, he had a 2.57 ERA (3.59 FIP).
Brewers—Key Draft Picks and Others
Just three players on the Brewers’ 25-man postseason roster were drafted by the team and these three players account for just five percent of the team’s total WAR. This is the fewest of any team remaining in the playoffs by a significant margin. The team closest to the Brewers is the Dodgers, with 28 percent of their team WAR coming via players they drafted.
OF Ryan Braun (1.1 WAR)—Braun is the longest-tenured Brewer. He was drafted in the first round of the 2005 MLB June Draft (5th pick overall). He’s been a six-time All-Star, won the NL Rookie of the Year Award, and an NL MVP Award. He’s also slowed down a bit over the last few years, including this season when he played in just 125 games and hit .254/.313/.469.
RHP Corbin Burnes (0.7 WAR)—Burnes was drafted in the fourth round of the 2016 draft. He was a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, but shifted to the bullpen when he was called up to the big leagues this season. He had a 2.61 ERA (3.79 FIP) in 38 innings during the regular season.
RHP Brandon Woodruff (0.3 WAR)—Woodruff was drafted in the 11th round in 2014. After an impressive 2016 season, he was ranked in the top-100 on the Baseball America list prior to the 2017 season (82nd) and again prior to this season (61st). He pitched 85.3 innings combined in 2017 and 2018 and has a 4.22 ERA and 3.84 FIP in his career.
Key Waiver Wire Pick-Up
1B Jesus Aguilar (3.2 WAR)—Aguilar was signed by Cleveland as an international free agent way back in 2007. He played parts of nine seasons and appeared in 953 games in the minor leagues, but never got a significant shot at playing time with the major league club. Cleveland released him prior to the 2017 season. The Brewers added him through waivers and he’s hit .271/.344/.527, with 51 homers and 160 RBI in 282 games with the Brew Crew over the last two seasons. Sometimes it really is true that “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.”
International Free Agent Signing
SS Orlando Arcia (-0.1 WAR)—Arcia was signed out of Venezuela in 2010. He was ranked 94th on the Baseball America top-100 prior to the 2015 season, them moved all the way up to 8th before the 2016 season. This is his third year in the major leagues and he’s struggled with the bat so far, hitting .252/.296/.365 in his career. Of course, after hitting three home runs in 366 plate appearances during the regular season, Arcia hit three home runs in his first 19 postseason plate appearances this year because that’s baseball.
Next. Problem with Brewers bullpen plan. dark
Summary
The Milwaukee Brewers were built through trades and free agent signings. Except for Jesus Aguilar, who proved to be a shrewd waiver wire pick-up in February of 2017, all of their above average players were acquired through trades or signed as free agents. This includes two NL MVP candidates in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, along with two key members of their bullpen, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress. Those four players, plus Travis Shaw and Jhoulys Chacin, accounted for 68 percent of the WAR produced by the Brewers’ 25-man roster.