If it ain't broke, don't fix it; the problem with the Brewers bullpen plan

How the Brewers lost Game 2 of the NLCS, and what Craig Counsell can do to prevent another meltdown going forward

Is it possible to lose Saturday’s game in the third inning on Friday?

Milwaukee Brewers fans could be forgiven for asking that question following their team’s 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series.

The Brewers surrendered a 3-0 lead in the final three innings when the back end of their vaunted bullpen melted down.

As the teams prepared for the Series’ third game Monday afternoon in Los Angeles, it is a fair question whether the meltdown is traceable in whole or in part to Brewer manager Craig Counsell’s use – or non-use — of his first and second game starters.

Counsell pulled Game 1 starter Gio Gonzalez after two innings in which Gonzalez had allowed a Manny Machado home run but little else. He lifted Game 2 starter Wade Miley after five and two-thirds innings apparently because Miley had given up a two-out hit to Chris Taylor. The Brewers led 2-0 at the time.

Milwaukee survived Gonzalez’ very early exit because middle relievers Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader delivered five stellar innings of shutdown relief. Woodruff struck out four and did not allow a baserunner over his two innings. Hader worked three innings, striking out four and allowing two singles.

The problem was that their extended labors rendered both men unavailable for Saturday’s second game, throwing the entire relief load onto the back of Milwaukee’s pen, chiefly setup men Joakim Soria and Corey Knebel as well as closer Jeremy Jeffress. As good as they have been this season, they came up small against the Dodgers, both Friday and Saturday.

Compare the performances of three segments of Milwaukee’s mound staff – starters, Woodruff plus Hader, and all other relievers — in the first two games of the NLCS:

Pitcher	Innings	Hits	Runs	ERA	Home runs	Strikeouts	Walks
Starters	7.2	3	1	1.17	1	4	1
Woodruff-Hader	5.0	2	0	0.00	0	8	0
All others	5.1	12	8	14.12	1	6	4

The problem, in both games, appeared to have been that Counsell fell in love with his plan rather than with reality. He appeared to have determined to use Gonzalez only briefly – probably to force Dodger manager Dave Roberts to set up his batting order a certain way that Counsell thought would be advantageous to the Brewers.He may also have been trying to borrow a page from Tampa Bay, which used “bullpenning” extensively on the way to a surprising 90-72 season. The difference was that Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash employed the concept of a short-use starter as a regular aspect of his team’s structure. The Brewers, by contrast, used the “bullpenning” strategy exactly once in 2018, on Sept. 24 when Dan Jennings retired the game’s first batter then was lifted for the first of eight relievers in an eventual 6-4 Brewer victory over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Beyond his team having almost no experience in the short-starter concept, when Gonzalez on Friday – and Miley on Saturday – diverted from Counsell’s script by actually pitching effectively, the manager failed to adjust to the more favorable reality. By the critical moments of Saturday’s game, the result was a 2-0 lead but also short and fatigued pen unable to provide the stopgap work Milwaukee needed.By removing Gonzalez (and Miley) before Dodger hitters told him to with their bats, Counsell allowed his plan to supersede one of life’s dictates: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

There’s no certainty, of course, that if Gonzalez and/or Miley had been allowed to remain in their games, they would have continued to be as effective as they looked at the time they were removed. But there is evidence in the record to suggest Gonzalez, at least, would have been.

Since coming over from Washington at the end of August in a waiver wire move, Gonzalez had made five starts for the Brewers, winning three games and averaging a fraction better than five innings. His 0.947 September WHIP was his best for any month of the season, as was his .157 batting average against. Including his starts with the Nationals, Gonzalez had allowed hitters a .243 batting average the second time they saw him, slightly better than their .249 batting average on their first look at him.

More from Call to the Pen

The data, in other words, suggests that Gonzalez had two or three more good innings in him, innings that might have allowed Counsell to lessen the Game 1 load on Woodruff and Hader, probably making them available for Saturday.

Instead, he pulled Gonzalez and went abruptly to his pitching reserves. That left the Brewers manager without the flexibility to respond in the late innings either Friday or Saturday when his bullpen aces – chiefly Jeffress – did not deliver at their usual level.

Managers often plug short relievers into roles, effectively treating them like robots who they expect to deliver day in and day out as programmed. But closers aren’t robots, they’re humans. Jeffress hasn’t had his usual stuff against Los Angeles, the result being five hits, two runs and a loss in one and one-third innings across two critical appearances. Why? Who knows? Maybe his tummy hurt. Maybe his kid is sick or he slept wrong on his arm the night before.

The point is that by pre-programming his pen usage and then not adapting to the changing circumstances, Counsell violated maxims of actual combat that have governed successful generals’ use of reserves – which is what relievers are — for millennia: Hold them back and deploy them only when and where needed.

Next. Brewers take NLCS game 3. dark

The Brewers have excellent reserves. If Craig Counsell learns the basic lessons governing their use – use them only as needed, resist the urge to fix what isn’t broken and recognize the difference between a plan and a result — Milwaukee stands an excellent chance to win the NLCS … and possibly the World Series….If, however, he treats those reserves as an equally fungible part of a very good team, pre-programming their use and not adapting to circumstances, he risks finding himself where he found himself in the late innings Saturday. That is in a dire circumstance with his emergency forces already expended and unavailable. That is a recipe for losing.

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