Los Angeles Dodgers: building a champion
The Los Angeles Dodgers have used a balanced method to build their postseason roster, getting production through multiple pathways.
When it comes to building a major league roster, MLB teams have a few distinct paths to acquire players. The “old school” way is to draft a player out of high school or college and develop him through your farm system until he’s ready to produce in the big leagues. Two of the Dodgers best starting pitchers and two good position players came through the draft.
Other ways to acquire big league talent include free agent signings, both domestic and international, trades, waivers and purchasing a player from another team. When it comes to the Dodgers’ 25-man NLCS roster, we find key players acquired through every avenue except the waiver wire. Unlike the Brewers, who get the bulk of their value through players acquired in trades, the Dodgers have a good mix of valuable players among trade acquisitions, drafted players and free agent signings.
With four teams still vying for the 2018 World Series trophy, I thought it would be interesting to look at how each of these four teams acquired the players on their 25-man League Championship Series roster and how much value those players have contributed this season. Previously, the Milwaukee Brewers were analyzed. Next up are the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Of the four teams remaining in the postseason, the Dodgers were second in number of players acquired through trades. Only the Brewers had more. That being said, while the Brewers received 87 percent of their value from players acquired through trades or signed as major league free agents, the Dodgers received just 59 percent of their value from players acquired through those two avenues.
Of the four teams left in the postseason, the Dodgers have received production in the most well-balanced manner, getting good production from trade acquisitions, draft picks, and free agency, both domestic and international. pic.twitter.com/eMb0WZCVY0
— BobbyBaseball (@bballonthebrain) October 16, 2018
Here’s the Dodgers’ breakdown for number of players acquired through the different pathways:
- Acquired through trade: 11 players (44%)
Signed as free agents: 4 players (16%)
Drafted and developed: 5 players (20%)
Signed as international free agents: 5 players (20%)
Here’s the Dodgers’ breakdown for value accrued by these players:
- Acquired through trade: 37% of total WAR
Signed as free agents: 22% of total WAR
Drafted and developed: 28% of total WAR
Signed as international free agents: 13% of total WAR
Let’s look at those different categories in more detail.
Dodgers–Key Players Acquired by Trade
More players on the Dodgers’ 25-man NLCS roster were acquired through trades than through any other method. These players accounted for the highest percentage of WAR produced by any group during the regular season when looking at the 25 players on the team’s NLCS roster. Of the 11 players who were worth 2.0 WAR or more this season, four came to the team via the trade route. Those four are detailed below.
UT Chris Taylor (4.1 WAR)—The Seattle Mariners drafted Taylor in the fifth round of the 2012 draft and developed him through their minor league system for four-and-a-half years. He made it to Triple-A in 2014 and had productive seasons at that level over the next three years, but didn’t hit as well when he was called up to the big leagues. On June 19, 2016, they traded him to the Dodgers for pitcher Zach Lee. This would prove to be a colossal blunder.
Upon seeing the success of J.D. Martinez, Taylor sought out hitting guru Craig Wallenbrock and embraced the fly ball revolution. After not hitting a single home run in 246 major league plate appearances in parts of three seasons with the Mariners, Taylor has hit 39 in 1234 plate appearances with the Dodgers. He’s been worth 8.9 WAR over the last two seasons. The Mariners waived Zach Lee in December of 2016. He was last seen pitching in the minor leagues for the Tampa Bay Rays.
C Yasmani Grandal (3.3 WAR)—In December of 2014, the Dodgers acquired Yasmani Grandal, Zach Eflin and Joe Wieland from the Padres for Matt Kemp, Tim Federowicz and cool, hard cash ($32 million). At the time, Kemp was just a few years removed from a 2011 season in which he led the league in runs, home runs and RBI and finished second in NL MVP voting, but declining defense and a couple of injury-marred seasons had taken the shine off his star. Grandal has generally been above average player with the Dodgers (averaging 2.4 WAR per year with L.A.), but his putrid postseason performance is quickly making everyone forget that.
UT Enrique Hernández (3.2 WAR)—Kiké Hernández was part of a seven-player trade with the Miami Marlins in December of 2014. The Dodgers received Hernández, Austin Barnes, Chris Hatcher and Andrew Heaney for Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Miguel Rojas and cash. Hernández was a generally useful player off the bench during his first three years in L.A., but has stepped up his game this year. In 2018, he set career highs in most categories, including games played, runs scored, home runs, RBI and WAR.
SS Manny Machado (2.8 WAR)—Machado was the biggest name traded during the 2018 season. The Dodgers acquired him from the Baltimore Orioles on July 18, 2018, for minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. Diaz immediately became the Orioles’ top prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. Kremer (15th), Bannon (21st) and Pop (24th) also made the Orioles’ top-30. Machado hit .273/.338/.487, with 13 homers and 42 RBI in 66 games with the Dodgers. He’ll likely sign with the Yankees in the offseason, or the Phillies.
Other trade acquisitions:
LHP Alex Wood (1.3 WAR)—December, 2015, from Tigers
OF Matt Kemp (1.1 WAR)—July, 2015, from Astros
RHP Dylan Floro (1.1 WAR)—August, 2018, from Nationals
C Austin Barnes (0.5 WAR)—July, 2018, from Royals
INF David Freese (0.5 WAR)—December, 2015, from Mariners
2B Brian Dozier (0.0 WAR)—August, 2018, from Blue Jays
RHP Ryan Madson (-0.2 WAR)—August 2018, from White Sox
Dodgers–Key Free Agent Signings
Four players on the Dodgers’ 25-man NLCS roster came to the team through the free agency route, including two of their top hitters. These four players account for 16 percent of the roster and have provided 22 percent of the WAR accumulated by the 25 men on the postseason roster.
3B Justin Turner (4.5 WAR)—In five major league seasons with the Orioles and Mets from 2009 to 2013, Turner hit .260/.323/.361 in 318 games. The Mets released him after the 2013 season and the Dodgers signed him as a free agent two months later. Little did the Mets know at the time that Justin Turner was about to become JUSTIN TURNER, red-bearded masher of baseballs. Since 2014, Turner is 11th in baseball in wRC+, right in between Giancarlo Stanton and Freddie Freeman.
1B Max Muncy (4.2 WAR)—The Oakland A’s have done some impressive things over the years. They were particularly impressive this year with a 97-win season and a wild card berth, but Max Muncy is one of those “ones that got away.” After hitting .195/.290/.321 in 96 games with the A’s in 2015 and 2016, Muncy was released in March of 2017. The Dodgers signed him a month later.
Muncy spent the entire 2017 season in Triple-A and the first couple weeks of this season there before joining the Dodgers in mid-April. In 137 games, he hit .263/.391/.582, with 35 homers and 79 RBI. Muncy and Turner were terrific free agent signings after their previous teams let them walk away. It’s almost unfair that the Dodgers, a large market team with a high payroll, were able to grab these guys and get such good production. These are the types of guys small-market teams would love to have.
LHP Rich Hill (1.5 WAR)—Before signing with the Dodgers prior to last season, Rich Hill had pitched for seven major league teams in 12 years. In many of those years, he struggled with injuries that limited his time on the field. Before signing with the Dodgers, Hill had just one season with more than 125 innings pitched. He’s pitched 135.7 innings in each of the last two seasons with a 3.49 ERA and 3.84 FIP.
RHP Kenley Jansen (0.6 WAR)—Jansen was originally signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent in 2004 out of Curacao. He was a catcher in those days and even threw out a couple of would-be base stealers in the World Baseball Classic in 2009. Later that year, the Dodgers moved him from behind the plate to the pitcher’s mound. A year later he was in the big leagues and became the team’s closer in 2012. He became a free agent in November of 2016 and re-signed with the Dodgers in January of 2017.
Dodgers–Key Draft Picks
Unlike the Brewers, who have just three players on their 25-man roster who were drafted by the team, the Dodgers have five such players. Those five combined for 28 percent of the WAR accumulated by the 25-man NLCS roster during the regular season. Two of these five players are the team’s two best starting pitchers and two others are important position players. The fifth is reliever Caleb Ferguson.
OF Cody Bellinger (4.2 WAR)—Taken by the Dodgers in the fourth round of the 2013 draft, Bellinger burst upon the scene last year with a 39-HR, 97-RBI season that earned him the NL Rookie of the Year Award and a ninth place finish in NL MVP voting. He “slumped” to just 25 homers and 76 RBI this season, but was still worth 4.2 WAR for a second year in a row thanks in part to increased playing time. Bellinger is a rarity. He’s one of only two players in the last 35 years to play at least 50 games at first base and center field in the same season. The other is Nick Swisher.
RHP Walker Buehler (3.4 WAR)—Buehler was the 24th player taken overall in the 1st round of the 2015 draft. He spent one full season in the minor leagues and most of a second before pitching in eight games with the Dodgers last year. This season, he started 23 games and pitched 137.3 innings with a 2.62 ERA and 3.04 FIP. He should be in the mix for NL Rookie of the Year votes.
LHP Clayton Kershaw (3.3 WAR)—The Dodgers drafted Kershaw with the seventh overall pick in the 2006 draft. He was taken three picks ahead of Tim Lincecum (19.7 WAR, with two Cy Young Awards), and four picks ahead of Max Scherzer (54.5 WAR, with three Cy Young Awards). Kershaw himself has three Cy Young Awards, which means that 2006 draft had three pitchers drafted within five picks of each other who went on to win eight Cy Young Awards (so far). Kershaw has been limited to an average of 162 innings per year over the last three years, but has still been impressive (2.26 ERA, 2.72 FIP) in his time on the hill.
OF Joc Pederson (2.3 WAR)—Pederson was the Dodgers’ 11th-round pick in the 2010 draft. He was second on the Dodgers this season with a .522 slugging percentage and tied for second with 25 home runs.
Dodgers–International Free Agent Signings
The Dodgers have more international free agent signees on their roster than any other team still in the postseason. Five of their 25 players were acquired this way. They accounted for 13 percent of the WAR accumulated by the Dodgers’ 25-man NLCS roster this season.
OF Yasiel Puig (2.7 WAR)—The Dodgers signed Puig to a record contract for a Cuban defector back in the summer of 2012. He made his debut in the big leagues the following June and was electric right from the start, picking up five hits in his first two games, including a 2-HR, 5-RBI game against the Padres. He hit over .400 through his first 34 games and was slashing .364/.425/.576 through his first 65 major league games.
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In his first two years in Dodgers blue, Puig hit .305/.386/.502 and was worth an average of 4.9 WAR per season. He finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2013 and was an all-star in 2013. Then came a couple of down years, as Puig hit .260/.323/.425 and averaged 1.2 WAR per season in 2015 and 2016. Just when you thought this was the player Puig was destined to be for the rest of his career, he turned things around in 2017. He’s hit .264/.337/.490 and averaged 3.2 WAR per season over the last two years.
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (2.2 WAR)—Six months after signing Puig in 2012, the Dodgers added another international player when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu out of Korea. Ryu was at his best during his first season, when he pitched 192 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 3.24 FIP (3.4 WAR). He followed that up with 152 innings and a 3.38 ERA (2.62 FIP) in 2014, then missed all of the 2015 season and most of the 2016 season.
Ryu has been limited to 39 starts and 215 innings over the last two years, but he’s continued to pitch well (3.06 ERA, 4.06 FIP). He’s one of a half-dozen starting pitchers on the Dodgers who pitch well when healthy but will never be confused with a workhorse, 200-innings guy.
RHP Pedro Baez (0.8 WAR)—Baez was signed out of the Dominican Republic in January of 2007. He was an infielder in those days and played well enough to represent the World team in the 2009 All-Star Futures Game as a third baseman. He received raved reviews for his defense and, especially, his strong arm.
After the 2012 season, the Dodgers converted Baez from third base to pitcher. Two years later, he was in the big leagues. He’s been with the Dodgers for five seasons now and has a 3.01 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 266 appearances.
RHP Kenta Maeda (0.6 WAR)—The Dodgers signed Maeda out of Japan before the 2016 season. He signed an unusual 8-year, $25 million contract that could have paid him as much as $106.2 million if he maxed out all his performance bonuses. To get the full value, he would have needed to be a 32-start, 200-innings guy.
Maeda has not been that guy. Instead, he’s averaged 26 starts and 145 innings in his three years with the Dodgers His career ERA is 3.80 and he’s averaged 1.3 WAR per season. After making 20 starts in 2018, he was shifted to the bullpen in mid-August and has pitched in relief during the postseason.
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Summary
The Dodgers built their 2018 playoff team primarily through strong draft picks (Cody Bellinger, Clayton Kershaw) and shrewd trades (Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal), which accounted for players who earned 65 percent of their overall WAR. They also made two key free agent signings when they picked up Justin Turner and Max Muncy after they were discarded by their previous teams.