Boston Red Sox: building a champion
A big part of the Red Sox’ 25-man ALCS roster is their terrific outfield of Betts, Benintendi and Bradley, all of whom were drafted and developed by the team.
With Mike Trout sitting at home watching the Weather Channel, the best player still playing is Mookie Betts, of the Boston Red Sox. With the season he just had, Betts is the likely AL MVP for 2018, although his teammate J.D. Martinez will also get some votes. The Red Sox also have the elite Chris Sale, who will be in the running for the AL Cy Young Award.
Betts, Martinez and Sale were all acquired in different ways by the Red Sox. Betts was a terrific draft pick, taken in the 5th round in 2011. It’s not often you find a talent like Betts in the fifth round. He’s been worth 35.2 WAR in his career (Baseball-Reference). The next-best player taken that round is Nick Tropeano, worth 1.5 WAR.
Martinez was a big free agent signing before this season. After destroying baseballs in the second half of the 2017 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Martinez was looking for a big payday in free agency. He ended up with a good contract, but it took until February 26 before he was signed.
Sale was acquired in a classic prospects-for-veteran trade with the White Sox in 2016. The Red Sox had a good enough collection of prospects to entice the White Sox to deal their ace. Another key player on the Red Sox, shortstop Xander Bogearts, was an international free agent signing back in 2009, when he was just 16 years old. Betts, Martinez, Sale and Bogaerts are among the elite players on the Red Sox and they were all acquired in different ways.
With four teams still vying for the 2018 World Series trophy, I thought it would be interesting to look at how each of these teams acquired the players on their 25-man League Championship Series roster and how much value those players have contributed this season. Previously, the Milwaukee Brewers were analyzed. Then it was the Los Angeles Dodgers under the microscope, followed by the Houston Astros. Today, it’s the Red Sox’ turn.
Here is the Red Sox’ breakdown for number of players acquired through the different pathways:
Acquired through trade: 10 players (40%)
Signed as free agents: 5 players (20%)
Drafted and developed: 7 players (28%)
Signed as international free agents: 2 players (8%)
Purchased from another team: 1 player (4%)
Here is the Red Sox’ breakdown for value accrued by these players:
Acquired through trade: 37% of total WAR
Signed as free agents: 23% of total WAR
Drafted and developed: 34% of total WAR
Signed as international free agents: 7% of total WAR
Purchased from another team: 0% of total WAR
Let’s look at those different categories in more detail.
Red Sox–Key Players Acquired by Trade
Three of the four best starting pitchers on the Red Sox were acquired in trades. This includes their ace, Chris Sale, along with Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Their top bullpen piece, Craig Kimbrel, was also a trade acquisition.
LHP Chris Sale (6.9 WAR)—Sale was an ace long before he came to Boston in a trade before the 2017 season. Upon becoming a full-time starter with the White Sox in 2012, Sale finished in the top six in AL Cy Young voting every year with Chicago and even received AL MVP votes in his final two years on the south side.
In December of 2016, the rebuilding White Sox traded their ace to the Red Sox for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Victor Diaz and Luis Alexander Basabe. It was an impressive haul of prospects. Moncada was the #3 prospect in baseball before the 2016 season and the #2 prospect before the 2017 season, according to Baseball America. Kopech was ranked 11th by Baseball America prior to this season and is considered the White Sox’ second-best prospect now. Basabe is currently ranked ninth among the White Sox’ top-30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline.
Sale has been great with Boston. He finished second in AL Cy Young voting last year and should be in the mix for votes again this year, despite pitching just 158 innings (2.11 ERA, 1.98 FIP). It took two elite prospects to get him, but the Red Sox have to be happy with the results so far.
RHP Rick Porcello (3.1 WAR)—After spending the first six years of his career with the Detroit Tigers, Porcello came to Boston in a trade in December of 2014. The Red Sox acquired Porcello and Gabe Speier for Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Wilson. Cespedes had been acquired by the Red Sox at the trade deadline during the 2014 season for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes. So, in the grand scheme of things, the Red Sox went from Lester to Cespedes to Porcello.
In four seasons with the Red Sox, Porcello has a 4.19 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 789.7 innings. He was the AL Cy Young winner in 2016, but wasn’t all that good in 2015 or 2017. He was better once again this year, just not as good as he was in his Cy Young season.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (3.0 WAR)—At the trade deadline in 2014, when the Baltimore Orioles were on their way to winning the AL East and the Boston Red Sox were destined to finish last in the division, the teams made a trade. The Red Sox traded left-handed reliever Andrew Miller to the Orioles for left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who was a pitching prospect still a year away from the big leagues.
After the trade, Miller was “the one who got away,” as he became a super reliever for the Orioles, Yankees, and Indians, with a ton of screen time in the postseason the last few years. Rodriguez, who was a top-100 prospect when the deal was made, is a fine pitcher, but he’s no workhorse. He’s never pitched more than 140 innings in a season. He has been okay, though, worth an average of nearly 2 WAR per season with Boston. He hasn’t been as good as Miller, but he still has youth on his side.
RHP Craig Kimbrell (2.3 WAR)—Kimbrel was a stud closer with the Braves from 2011 to 2014 and the Padres in 2015 before coming to the Red Sox before the 2016 season. In the deal, the Red Sox sent Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje and Javy Guerra to the Padres for Kimbrel and Logan Allen.
Margot was a top-100 prospect three years running from 2015 to 2017, according to Baseball America. He’s played two full seasons with the Padres and has been roughly a league average player, thanks in large part to his defense. Asuaje hasn’t been as valuable, especially after hitting .196/.286/.280 in 79 games this season. Guerra has a .237/.290/.374 career line in the minor leagues.
In three seasons with the Red Sox, Kimbrel has a 2.44 ERA and 2.43 FIP in 184.3 innings. He’s been an all-star all three seasons and has the second-highest strikeout rate among all relievers with at least 100 innings pitched in the last three years (behind Josh Hader).
INF Brock Holt (1.3 WAR)—When the Red Sox acquired Holt in a trade with the Pirates before the 2013 season, he was an add-on. The main player in the deal for the Sox was reliever Joel Hanrahan. To get Hanrahan and Holt, the Red Sox sent the Pirates Mark Melancon, Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel and Ivan DeJesus. As a Red Sox player, Holt has been a useful guy off the bench who can play multiple positions.
1B Steve Pearce (1.2 WAR)—Along with Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler, Steve Pearce is one of three players on the Red Sox’ 25-man ALCS roster who was acquired by trade in June or July of this season. In the case of Pearce, it was a June 28 trade with the Blue Jays that brought him to Boston. The Blue Jays received Santiago Espinal in the deal. Espinal ranks 22nd on the Blue Jays’ top-30 according to MLB Pipeline.
In 50 games with the Red Sox post-trade, Pearce hit .279/.394/.507. His greatest skill as an MLB player is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. In his career, he’s a .267/.352/.501 hitter against lefties (130 wRC+) and .250/.326/.416 against righties (103 wRC+).
Other trade acquisitions:
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (0.8 WAR)—July 2018, from Rays
RHP Heath Hembree (0.5 WAR)—July 2014, from Giants
RHP Joe Kelly (0.5 WAR)—July 2014, from Cardinals
2B Ian Kinsler (-0.1 WAR)—July 2018, from Angels
Red Sox–Key Free Agent Signings
Five of the 25 men on the Red Sox’ ALCS roster were signed as major league free agents. This group of players includes one of the team’s best hitters (J.D. Martinez) and their second-best starting pitcher (David Price), along with their worst semi-regular position player (Eduardo Nunez).
DH J.D. Martinez (6.4 WAR)—In case you haven’t been paying attention during the ALCS, J.D. Martinez used to be on the Houston Astros. It’s been mentioned a few times. They released him, the Detroit Tigers signed him, and suddenly he was a great hitter. Then the Tigers traded him to the Diamondbacks in July of 2017 and he was an even greater hitter for 62 games. In the offseason, the Red Sox signed him to a 5-year, $110 million contract and he’s continued to be the even greater hitter he was with the Diamondbacks.
With the Red Sox this season, Martinez hit .330/.402/.629 and was an all-star for the second time in his career. He scored 111 runs, hit 43 big flies and led the league with 130 RBI and 358 total bases. He was a masher. He’s not AL MVP-worthy because he provides negative value on defense and base running and Mookie Betts was a much better player overall, but he should get some votes just for his bat.
LHP David Price (4.4 WAR)—When the Red Sox signed David Price to a 7-year, $217 million free agent deal before the 2016 season, he was coming off a 2015 season in which he finished second in AL Cy Young voting and ninth in AL MVP voting. He also had one Cy Young Award under his belt from three years before and another second-place finish two years before that and had been an all-star five times in the previous six seasons.
In three seasons with the Red Sox, Price has yet to make an all-star team or receive any Cy Young votes. After averaging a 2.97 ERA and 3.05 FIP from 2010 to 2015, Price has a 3.74 ERA and 3.76 FIP in three seasons in Boston. He’s averaged roughly 3 WAR per season with the Sox, which is estimated to be worth $24 million per season. It’s just that he’s getting paid $30 million per season
RHP Ryan Brasier (1.5 WAR)—Brasier has been in professional baseball since he was a 19-year-old pitching in the Rookie League in 2007. Before this season, he had pitched in 348 minor league games but just seven major league games back in 2013 with the Los Angeles Angels. The Red Sox signed him as a minor league free agent in March. After pitching well in Triple-A, the Red Sox called him up in July and he’s been so good in his first extended taste of big league action that he’s become one of the team’s go-to guys in the postseason.
Other free agent signings:
1B Mitch Moreland (0.9 WAR)—December 2017
3B Eduardo Nunez (-1.1 WAR)—February 2018
Red Sox–Key Draft Picks
The Red Sox have seven players on their 25-man ALCS roster who they drafted and developed, which is the second-most of any of the teams remaining in the postseason. Only the Astros, with eight, have more. The Red Sox impressive outfield of Mookie Betts, Andrew Beninentendi and Jackie Bradley, Jr. were all drafted by the team, along with two relievers, Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman.
RF Mookie Betts (10.9 WAR)—Mookie Betts is only the second Mookie in the history of baseball. The other was Mookie Wilson, who was a big part of the New York Mets team that beat the Red Sox in devastating fashion in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series, then beat them again in Game 7. Mookie Wilson had some good years with the Mets, but you could add together the WAR he earned in his three best seasons and still come up short of Mookie Betts’ 10.9 WAR this season.
The Red Sox drafted Betts in the fifth round of the 2011 draft. In the first round that year, the seven most valuable players drafted were Francisco Lindor, Anthony Rendon, George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Jose Fernandez (RIP) and Jackie Bradley, Jr. Betts is better than all of them.
LF Andrew Benintendi (3.9 WAR)—Benintendi is one of four first round picks on the Red Sox’ 25-man ALCS roster. He was drafted by the Red Sox with the seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft. The second pick that year was Alex Bregman, who is on the team the Red Sox are playing in the ALCS. As fate would have it, Benintendi made a diving catch to rob Bregman of a hit that might have won the game for the Astros with two outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game 4.
After a 34-game stint in 2016, Benintendi finished second to Aaron Judge in AL Rookie of the Year voting last season when he was worth 2.6 WAR. He upped his game this season (3.9 WAR), as he increased his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He was the best 23-year-old position player in baseball this year, which is kind of a random thing but still impressive.
CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. (2.1 WAR)—Bradley, the third member of the Triple-B outfield in Boston was drafted in the 1st round of the 2011 draft. He was a supplemental pick, taken 40th, to compensate the Red Sox for losing Adrian Beltre to free agency. Bradley’s defense in center field is reliably great, but his bat disappears for stretches at a time. Just this season, he hit .210/.297/.345 in the first half and .269/.340/.487 in the second half. He’s also a much better hitter at Fenway Park (.259/.337/.430, 100 wRC+) than everywhere else (.218/.299/.384, 84 wRC+).
RHP Matt Barnes (1.1 WAR)—In the same first round of the 2011 draft that the Red Sox drafted Jackie Bradley, Jr., they also drafted Matt Barnes and Blake Swihart (and Henry Owens). Barnes was taken 19th overall, as a compensation pick from the Tigers for free agent Victor Martinez.
Barnes made his debut in 2014 but didn’t get significant time in the Red Sox bullpen until 2015. He’s improved his ERA, FIP and strikeout rate in each of the last three years and has become one of manager Alex Cora’s main guys in the late innings this season.
Other Draft Picks
RHP Brandon Workman (0.9 WAR)—2nd round, 2010
C Blake Swihart (-0.3 WAR)—1st round, 2011
C Christian Vazquez (-0.8 WAR)—9th round, 2008
Red Sox–International Free Agent Signings
The Red Sox have two international free agent signees and one player they purchased outright from another MLB team. The best of these three is Xander Bogaerts.
SS Xander Bogaerts (3.8 WAR)—The Red Sox signed Bogaerts out of Aruba in August of 2009 when he was a teenager. He first appeared on the Baseball America top-100 before the 2012 season, as the 58th-best prospect in baseball. He moved up to 8th the next season and 2nd overall the year after.
Bogaerts’ first full year in the major leagues was rough (0.1 WAR), but he came back strong in year two (4.5 WAR) with an above average bat and good defense at shortstop. He made the all-star team in 2016 when he hit a surprising 21 home runs. That power disappeared in 2017 but returned again this year with a career-high 23 home runs. He also had the best on-base percentage and slugging percentage of his career.
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Dodgers Way
3B Rafael Devers (0.0 WAR)—Devers was an international free agent signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2013. Before the 2015 season, he ranked 99th on the Baseball America top-100, then ranked 18th the next two years. After three-plus seasons in the minor leagues, Devers hit well in 58 games with the Red Sox in 2017. He was an above average hitter with a glove that lagged behind his bat.
Expected to be the team’s regular third baseman this year, Devers instead took a step backwards. He hit .240/.298/.433 and was well below average in the field. It’s important to remember that he was just 21 years old this year. Also, one of the biggest difference between Devers in 2017 and Devers in 2018 was his BABIP, which went from .342 to .281. If Devers had the same BABIP this year as last year, he would have had a very similar batting line.
Purchased
C Sandy Leon (-0.5 WAR)—In March of 2015, the Red Sox acquired Leon from the Washington Nationals for cash considerations. They needed a catcher because Christian Vazquez had a right elbow sprain. Leon only had 107 major league plate appearances before the Red Sox picked him up.
In three of his four seasons with Boston, Leon has been a brutal hitter. In a typical Sandy Leon year, he struggles to hit .200, doesn’t come close to a .300 OBP, and lacks any semblance of power. The only reason he’s in the lineup is his glove. But there was one, crazy year in which Leon could suddenly hit. In 2016, he hit .310/.369/.476. It was unreal. His career BABIP is .290. In 2016, his BABIP was .392. It was magical and totally unrepeatable.
Summary
Of the four remaining playoff teams, the Red Sox received the highest percentage of value from players they drafted. You could see this in real time during the team’s Game 4 victory over the Astros. Outfielders Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Andrew Benintendi, all originally drafted by the Red Sox, each did something impressive that helped give the Red Sox the win and a two-game lead in the series.
Red Sox Mount Rushmore. dark. Next
Along with the production of their drafted players, the Red Sox got 1.7 scoreless innings from free agent Ryan Brasier and a two-inning save from trade acquisition Craig Kimbrel. International free agent signee Xander Bogaerts had two hits and two RBI. It was an impressive victory with contributions from players who joined the Red Sox through a variety of ways.