Houston Astros: building a champion

The Houston Astros created their ALCS roster with a balanced mix between players they developed and players they acquired from other organizations.

Many baseball fans know the general story about the Houston Astros over the last decade. Before they were good, they were really, really bad. This started with a significant teardown that resulted in three straight 100-loss seasons from 2011 to 2013. These were the worst three seasons in the history of the franchise.

Prior to this stretch, the Astros had previously enjoyed a nine-year stretch of good teams from 1997 to 2005. Those were the teams of Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman and Oswalt. They made the playoffs six times in nine years, including their first World Series appearance in 2005, when they were swept by the White Sox.

After that World Series season, the Astros slipped into the pool of mediocrity, winning between 73 and 86 games each season for the next five years. This led to their first 100-loss season in 2011, which was the beginning of the transformation from basement-dweller to World Series champions in 2017.

Through draft picks, free agent signings, and trades, the Astros rebuilt their roster. With four teams still vying for the 2018 World Series trophy, I thought it would be interesting to look at how each of these four teams acquired the players on their 25-man League Championship Series roster and how much value those players have contributed this season. Previously, the Milwaukee Brewers were analyzed. Then it was the Los Angeles Dodgers under the microscope. Today, it’s the Houston Astros.

Of the four teams remaining in the postseason, the Astros have received the least value through the major league free agent market, but are tied with the Dodgers for the highest percentage of value received from international free agents.

Here’s the Astros’ breakdown for number of players acquired through the different pathways:

Acquired through trade: 9 players (36%)

Signed as free agents: 5 players (20%)

Drafted and developed: 8 players (32%)

Signed as international free agents: 2 players (8%)

Added through waivers: 1 player (4%)

Here’s the Astros’ breakdown for value accrued by these players:

Acquired through trade: 35% of total WAR

Signed as free agents: 14% of total WAR

Drafted and developed: 33% of total WAR

Signed as international free agents: 13% of total WAR

Added through waivers: 4% of total WAR

Let’s look at those different categories in more detail.

Astros–Key Free Agent Signings

Five of the 25 men on the Astros’ ALCS roster were signed as major league free agents. They comprise 20 percent of the team’s 25-man roster but account for just 14 percent of the total value of those 25 players. Three of the team’s major league free agents are relief pitchers. The two non-relievers are Charlie Morton and Josh Reddick, who also happen to be the two best major league free agents the Astros have on their roster.

RHP Charlie Morton (3.5 WAR)—Morton was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the third round of the 2002 draft. It took him until 2008 to reach the big leagues, but success eluded him in his first three seasons as he put up a 5.98 ERA and 4.80 FIP in 251.3 innings with the Braves and Pirates. He had his best season to date in 2011, but for the most part was a non-descript right-handed pitcher who didn’t strike out enough batters to be anything other than a back-end rotation guy. Through 2016, Morton had a 4.54 ERA and 4.10 FIP in 893 career innings. He also had an uninspiring 16 percent strikeout rate.

The Astros signed Morton as a free agent in November of 2016 and he came out in 2017 looking like a new man. Over the last two seasons, he has a 3.36 ERA and 3.53 FIP in 55 starts. He’s struck out 27.7 percent of the batters he’s faced, which ranks 11th among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings over the last two seasons. He’s also beaned batters at a higher rate than any pitcher in MLB history with at least 1000 innings pitched.

OF Josh Reddick (1.8 WAR)—After eight big league seasons with three teams, Reddick signed a free agent deal with the Astros before last season. He was better in his first year in Houston (4.3 WAR) than he was this year, but is still an important part of the team with his left-handed bat and defense in right field. He has two years and $26 million remaining on the four-year contract he signed before last season.

LHP Tony Sipp (1.3 WAR)—Sipp is the lone lefty in the Astros’ bullpen, but his career splits versus right-handed batters and left-handed batters aren’t that different. Righties have hit him at a .216/.309/.409 clip compared to .221/.298/.409 by lefties. He’s been much better against lefties than righties this year, though. Sipp is one of five potential free agents on the Astros’ 25-man roster.

RHP Hector Rondon (0.9 WAR)—Rondon fell out of favor with the Chicago Cubs after having a subpar 2017 season. They let him become a free agent and the Astros signed him last December. He had a 3.20 ERA and 2.79 FIP in 59 innings this season, even taking over the closer’s role after Ken Giles struggled.

When the Astros traded for Osuna in the middle of his 75-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, Rondon knew his days as the closer were numbered. He pitched well in August, but blew up with a 9.72 ERA in 8.3 innings in the season’s final month.

Astros–Key Draft Picks

The Astros have eight players on their 25-man ALCS roster who they drafted and developed, which is the most of any of the teams remaining in the postseason. Four of these eight players were first round picks, including the #1 overall pick in 2012 (Carlos Correa) and the #2 overall pick in 2015 (Alex Bregman). The Astros received 33 percent of the overall value of their 25-man ALCS roster from players they drafted, second only to the 34 percent of the Boston Red Sox.

3B Alex Bregman (6.9 WAR)—Bregman was the 2nd player taken overall in the 2015 draft, right behind fellow college shortstop Dansby Swanson, who was taken by the Atlanta Braves. That’s a draft pick the Atlanta Braves would like to do over. Five picks after Bregman, the Red Sox drafted Andrew Benintendi. Later in the first round, the Dodgers drafted Walker Buehler. Bregman, Benintendi and Buehler are all still alive in the 2018 postseason.

Bregman made the big leagues in 2016 for a 49-game stint, then had a very good second season last year (4.1 WAR). That was nothing compared to what he did this season, as he set career highs in most offensive categories (.286/.394/.532, 105 R, 31 HR, 103 RBI). He was the Astros best player during the regular season and was a beast in the ALDS against Cleveland.

CF George Springer (2.7 WAR)—Back in 2011, during the first of three straight seasons in which they lost more than 100 games, the Astros drafted George Springer with the 11th overall pick in the June draft. There was an impressive group of big league talent taken in that round. Already, 11 players have been worth at least 10 WAR. Springer is third on the list, behind Francisco Lindor and Anthony Rendon and ahead of Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer.

Springer made his big league debut in 2014 when he hit 20 home runs in 78 games and finished eighth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. He’s been an above average player every year since, including back-to-back all-star seasons in 2017 and 2018.

LHP Dallas Keuchel (2.6 WAR)—Of the eight players drafted by the Astros who are on their 25-man ALCS roster, Dallas Keuchel is the longest-tenured. He was taken in the seventh round of the 2009 draft. He’s one of three players taken that round who have produced positive WAR in the major leagues. Khris Davis and Miles Mikolas are the other two.

Keuchel is one of the few current Astros who were with the team during the lean times. He came up in 2012, when the Astros were on their way to a 107-loss season that would be followed by a 111-loss season. Keuchel and the Astros improved together. When the team made the playoffs in 2015, Keuchel was the AL Cy Young winner. Other than a down 2016 season, Keuchel has been an above average starter in four of the last five seasons. He’s not at the level of Verlander or Cole, but he’s a fine mid-rotation starter on this team.

SS Carlos Correa (1.7 WAR)—Losing 106 games in 2011 gave the Astros the first overall pick of the 2012 draft and they used it to take Carlos Correa. It’s good they got him because their next two number one overall picks didn’t work out so well.

In 2013, with the number one overall pick once again, the Astros took Mark Appel. He was a hometown kid who was expected to be part of the next great Astros team. Instead, he’s now out of baseball. In 2014, they drafted Brady Aiken with the first overall pick, then pulled some shenanigans and didn’t sign him. They ultimately benefitted from their shady dealings with Aiken because they received the number two overall pick in the 2015 draft and took Alex Bregman.

It’s interesting to look back at what might have been. With three straight number one overall picks from 2012 to 2014, the Astros could have drafted Correa in 2012, which they did, along with Kris Bryant in 2013 and Aaron Nola in 2014. Correa has struggled with injuries this year, but came into the season regarded as one of the best young players in baseball.

DH Tyler White (1.6 WAR)—Unlike many of the drafted players still on the Astros’ 25-man roster, Tyler White was not taken in the early rounds. He was drafted in the 33rd round of the 2013 draft and is one of only two players drafted that round to get major league playing time (the other is Harrison Musgrave).

After hitting well in the minor leagues in 2015, White got his chance with the Astros in 2016 but couldn’t hit a lick and was sent back to the bush leagues. He had a 22-game stint with the Astros last year and hit well, but it wasn’t enough to earn him a spot on the Opening Day roster this year. After starting the 2018 season in the minors, he came up in June and hit .276/.354/.533 in 66 games, then continued his hot hitting in the Astros’ sweep of Cleveland in the ALDS.

RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. (1.5 WAR)—McCullers was taken 41st overall by the Astros in the 2012 draft as a compensation pick for the loss of free agent Clint Barmes. He was ranked 50th on the Baseball America top-100 before the 2013 season and 77th before the 2014 season. The Astros brought him to the show in 2015 and he’s been a solid mid-rotation starter who hasn’t yet shown the stamina to pitch more than 125 innings in a season.

Other Draft Picks

OF Tony Kemp (0.7 WAR)—5th round, 2013

RHP Josh James (0.7 WAR)—34th round, 2014

Astros–International Free Agent Signings and Waiver Addition

The Astros only have two international free agent signees, but they are important players. These two players combined to be worth 7.4 WAR this season, accounting for 13 percent of the total WAR produced by the Astros’ 25-man ALCS roster, which is tops of any team still remaining in the postseason.

2B Jose Altuve (5.2 WAR)—As the story goes, a young Jose Altuve showed up at tryout camp for the Houston Astros in Maracay, Venezuela, but was sent away because he was too short and they didn’t believe he was 16 years old. He came back the next day with his birth certificate. When special assistant for the Astros Al Pedrique asked him if he could play, Altuve said, “I’ll show you.” The team signed him and gave him a $15,000 bonus.

Dodgers Way

Altuve spent parts of six seasons in the minor leagues and hit .327/.386/.481. He got his first taste of big league action in 2011, but struggled to get on base in a 57-game sample (.297 OBP). He became a regular in 2012, then really broke out in 2014 when he led the AL in hits, steals and batting average for the first time.

Over the last five seasons, Altuve has been among the best players in the game. Only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have more WAR than Altuve from 2014 to 2018. He’s led the league in hits four times, steals twice, batting average three times and won the AL MVP Award in 2017. That’s not bad for a “too short” player discovered at a tryout camp and signed for $15,000.

1B Yuli Gurriel (2.2 WAR)—In the middle of the 2016 season, the Astros signed Yuli Gurriel out of Cuba. Prior to coming to the states, Gurriel had been one of the best players in Cuba for a decade. After signing with the Astros, he played 15 games in the minor leagues before joining the Astros in August. He didn’t hit much in his first major league season, but was much improved last season, when he hit .299/.332/.486 and was worth 2.6 WAR. He was a similar player this year, but with less power.

Waiver Wire Addition

RHP Collin McHugh (2.0 WAR)—McHugh pitched for the Mets and Rockies in his first two big league seasons, but with an 8.94 ERA and 5.86 FIP in 47.3 innings, he wasn’t exactly all-star material. The Rockies put him on waivers in December of 2013 and the Astros claimed him.

The move to Houston was good for McHugh. He had a 2.73 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 154.7 innings in his first year with the Astros, which was good for 4.0 WAR. His second season was pretty good also, but struggles with the home run ball hurt him in 2016 and injuries limited him in 2017. He was shifted to the bullpen this season and posted a 1.99 ERA and 2.72 WHIP in 72.3 innings.

Summary

Of the four remaining playoff teams, the Astros received the highest percentage of value from players they drafted or signed as international free agents. Players acquired through these two pathways produced 46 percent of the total WAR during the regular season by the players on the Astros’ 25-man ALCS roster. Core players like Alex Bregman, George Springer, Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Correa came through the draft and Jose Altuve and Yuri Gurriel were international free agent signings.

The Astros also have key players who were signed as free agents, like Charlie Morton and Josh Reddick. Their two best starting pitchers, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, came by way of trades, and Collin McHugh was a waiver wire pick-up. The Astros built their playoff team by acquiring good players through multiple avenues.