2019 Philadelphia Phillies: Trade hurdles ahead in the offseason

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Despite his improvement, Franco’s departure may be due to upgrading the defense overall, not the hot corner. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

For the faithful, the Phillies offseason began at September’s end, and the speculation continues regarding the future of some local stars general manager Matt Klentak might move.

Positional deals:

While the Philadelphia Phillies front office considers their in-house talent, part of the equation is their surplus: a third baseman, a second sacker and a center fielder. Of course, Klentak realizes the anticipated success of hitters, fielders and hurlers is not only critical to the next campaign but also to tomorrow’s.

IN OTHER WORDS “What’s called a difficult decision is a difficult decision because either way you go there are penalties.” – Elia Kazan

As the postseason draws closer to its end, some Phils fans are hoping management signs two superstar hitters, a starter and/or a closer. Unfortunately, this ignores all the hurdles Klenak is facing per acquisition. And don’t underestimate waiting.

Regarding roster construction, the first part is setting the active 25 for Opening Day. Basically, a GM reviews his data in the two weeks following his team’s last game, and it includes his best 40 to 45 players for roster protection. Continuing during and after this evaluation, Klentak fields calls from other organizations.

The result will be a 40-man roster and the groundwork for potential swaps during or after the Winter Meetings beginning on Dec. 9 through Dec. 12. Yes, Klentak will also have powwows with many agents: Interest or due diligence. Slow is not no! Lastly, March’s battles produce the active 25.

During the first half, the exec will discover those who are excelling or underperforming from his Opening Day projections. In other words, he’ll know the areas to improve before the trading deadline including health concerns. But the standings will dictate his approach for the stretch drive.

Currently, the red pinstripes have their pluses with two center fielders, three middle infielders and four bats on the corners. They also have six starters and nine relievers. Basically, they have four extra regulars and two additional pitchers. Quality notwithstanding.

As for the minuses, one center fielder is streaky to the max, while the other is a DL regular. And, presently, shortstop will be a platoon. Also, Rhys Hoskins improves left field defense by switching to first, and Carlos Santana is the left-side power threat and adequate at third, while Maikel Franco and Justin Bour are available.

Chances are good that Herrera will return for 2019. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

Stumbling blocks:

For Phillies hitters, the instructional approach of working counts and launch angles may be fine for most of the offense, but some regulars might be more successful with traditional methods. In fact, Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera had drastically different results from 2017 and now may be expendable. A mistake?

Another variable: When Klentak signs a free agent, it will change the offense, the pitching or the fielding. For instance, Inking Manny Machado to handle short can make Hernandez available for a new employment address. Or a bottleneck!

While some fans set the bar high for the front office, Klentak factors in the competition he faces. Those other GMs will use any leverage: stats, health and age to name a few, and minor leaguers are the pieces to balance many deals.

Concerning agents, they float rumors to motivate decision-makers to make a more substantial offer, and some execs do the same to stir up additional trade interest. Like poker, some are bluffing.

Klentak can pitch a veteran to another club, but many execs prefer their end to involve someone from the farm system, not the active 25. To illustrate, the San Diego Padres agreed to send a Double-A starter for Galvis. However, receiving a major leaguer is more challenging.

Before a GM moves a regular, he must have a replacement from another franchise or the minors if he doesn’t have one on the active roster. For example, if Roman Quinn didn’t have an injury-plagued history, he could be the center fielder in Herrera’s absence. Therefore, an obstacle.

If the Phillies sign Machado, they could trade Hernandez to open second base for Kingery. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

Value and competition:

With Herrera, the Phillies have a center fielder on a team-friendly contract, or an interested club can settle for an older free agent. But unless Klentak picks up a solid piece for center from another organization, locals will have Herrera to root for. Or something else?

Regarding second sackers who are 32 and under, franchises could ink DJ LeMahieu or Brian Dozier. As for Hernandez, he’s younger, but LeMahieu and Dozier will only involve money. And, perhaps, the new team hitting approach might be partially responsible for Hernandez’s drop from a .294 to a .253 mark.

For 2018, LaMahieu batted .276 with similar home run and RBI production to Hernandez, while Dozier suffered a decline from his 2016 and 2017 statistics. He averaged .215 with 21 homers and 72 RBIs last summer from the highs in those two previous campaigns: .271 with 42 bombs and 99 RBIs.

At the hot corner, the under-33 defenders are Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas. As for Franco, Santana’s pointers helped him improve during the entire 162. Franco had a .270 mark with 22 long balls and 68 RBIs, and he’s the youngest of the three.

For his limited ’18, Donaldson batted .246 with eight home runs and 30 RBIs over 219 plate appearances, but he had produced a .270 mark with 33 homers and 78 RBIs in ’17. However, a GM will probably see Donaldson bouncing back on a one-year deal. As for Moustakas, he hit .251, 23 bombs and 66 RBis.

To sum up, Herrera and Quinn will probably return, while Franco may be moving on. And if Klentak signs Machado, Hernandez could be in a trade, and a second-base platoon of Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford could work. So, what could we be saying to Franco and Hernandez before spring training? Adios!

The Phillies will try to include Bour in a package deal. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies plate-discipline comparison to free agents:

Machado: 14.7 K% and 9.9 BB% with a .367 OBP.
LaMahieu: 14.1 K% and 6.4 BB% with a .321 OBP.
Dozier: 20.4 K% and 11.1 BB% with a .305 OBP.
Donaldson: 24.7 K% and 14.2 BB% with a .352 OBP.
Moustakis: 16.2 K% and 7.7 BB% with a .315 OBP.

Franco: 13.3 K% and 6.2 BB% with a .314 OBP.
Hernandez: 21.9 K% and 13.4 BB% with a .356 OBP.
Herrera: 20.4 K% and 6.4 BB% with a .310 OBP.
Quinn: 24.5 K% and 7.5 BB% with a .305 OBP (Phillies).
Quinn: 17.8 K% and 7.0 BB% with a .305 OBP (AAA).

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

Rating	K%	BB%
Excellent	10.0%	15.0%
Great	12.5%	12.5%
Above Average	16.0%	10.0%
Average	20.0%	8.0%
Below Average	22.0%	7.0%
Poor	25.0%	5.5%
Awful	27.5%	4.0%

Philadelphia Phillies: Trade hurdles in the offseason

For the faithful, the Phillies offseason began at September’s end, and the speculation continues regarding the future of some local stars general manager Matt Klentak might move.

Positional deals:

Stumbling blocks:

Value and competition:

The Numerical Bible:

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