Detroit Tigers 2018 season review
The Detroit Tigers were who we thought they were in 2018, a rebuilding team destined to lose nearly 100 games.
On the one hand, the Detroit Tigers were expected to finish dead last in the AL Central and actually finished third. On the other hand, they still lost 98 games, the same as last year, and only finished third because the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox were even worse than the Tigers.
The Tigers spent the first part of this decade desperately trying to win a championship for longtime owner Mike Ilitch. They won the AL Central four straight years from 2011 to 2014 and even made it to the World Series in 2012, but were swept by the Giants in four straight. Since that run of success, the team has finished below .500 three times in four years, including two straight 64-98 finishes.
Ilitch was a wonderful owner who cared deeply for the Tigers and for the city of Detroit. He bought the team in 1992 and suffered through 12 losing seasons in the first 13 years. This stretch included the truly awful 2003 season in which the Tigers went 43-119. Three years later, under new manager Jim Leyland, the Tigers went from 71-91 to 95-67 and a playoff spot for the first time since 1987. They made it all the way to the World Series, but lost in five games to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Ilitch was willing to lay out cash for long-term deals when the team was in contention, but when those players aged and regressed it all fell apart. Heading into the 2017 season, the Tigers had eight players making $11 million or more per season, including five players making $18 million or more. They had gone 86-75 in 2016 and felt very much like they should be contenders.
Ilitch died in February of 2017 without getting the World Series ring he so desperately wanted. When the Tigers struggled to compete in 2017, the rebuild began and many of those big contracts were shipped out of town. Two of the best players traded that summer were Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez. Verlander won the World Series last year with the Houston Astros and Martinez is gunning for a World Series title this year with the Boston Red Sox.
Heading into the 2018 season, there were three high-priced players left in town—
Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann and Victor Martinez. Cabrera still has five years and $154 million left on his contract. Zimmermann is still owed $50 million over the next two years. Martinez made $18 million in 2018 and retired at the end of the year.
The last game for Martinez was a nice moment for Victor and for the fans, but the end of his career is a perfect example of why the Tigers have sunk so low the last two years. They spent big on players who didn’t produce. Four years ago, Martinez was rewarded with a nice contract after having a terrific 2014 season. He hit .335/.409/.565 that year, with 32 home runs and 103 RBI. It was his best season since 2007.
He was also 35 years old. Despite his age, the Tigers signed him to a four-year, $68 million contract that would take him through his age-39 season. In those four years, he hit .262/.320/.397. After being worth 4.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in his excellent 2014 season, Martinez was worth -3.7 WAR over the next four years, while making an average of $17 million per season. He never came close to living up to his contract.
With three big contracts still on the books and a mix of cheaper players on the roster, the 2018 Detroit Tigers were generally projected to win around 66 games. For the first two-and-a-half months of the season, they looked much better than anyone could have imagined. On June 18, they were in second place in the AL Central with a record of 36-37. They were just 2.5 games behind Cleveland.
Then came an 11-game losing streak that kicked off a 28-61 record from that point on. They closed out the season by losing 14 of their final 19 games, including their last five. Their attendance dropped from 2.3 million to 1.9 million. Only three teams saw a bigger decrease in attendance from 2017 to 2018.
Tiger fans are hoping that the saying, “It’s always darkest before the dawn” rings true for their team in the years ahead. The 2018 season was dark, but even in a bad season there were good things that happened. Let’s take a look at what went right for the 2018 Detroit Tigers.
2018 Detroit Tigers: What went right?
The best position player on the Tigers was Nick Castellanos. He had a career-best batting line of .298/.354/.500 and led the Tigers in games played, plate appearances, hits, runs, home runs, and RBI. His team-leading 130 wRC+ meant he was 30 percent above average after league and ballpark effects were taken into account.
Of course, even the brightest spot on the Tigers came with a dark underside. Defensively, Castellanos was the worst right fielder in baseball. At some point, the team might want to slide him into the DH spot, although Miguel Cabrera may beat him to it. Castellanos was also much better in the first half (.305/.359/.517, 137 wRC+) than the second half (.288/.346/.473, 120 wRC+).
On a team that was destined to lose 98 games for the second season in a row, Castellanos should have been traded away for prospects when his value was highest at mid-season. Now he has one year left before he can be a free agent. The team should have dealt him in the heat of the pennant race when he still had 1.5 years of control remaining because he’s not likely to be part of the next good Tigers team.
Three other position players had above average seasons. Shortstop Jose Iglesias isn’t much of a hitter, but he can pick it with the glove. Young third baseman Jeimer Candelario finished second on the team in home runs and runs scored and tied for second in RBIs. Unfortunately, like Castellanos, Candelario was better in the first half (.225/.325/.428, 106 wRC+) than in the second half (.223/.306/.348, 79 wRC+). Despite his second-half struggles, he’s a player the team can build around.
Outfielder Leonys Martin was quite good on defense and about league average with the bat, which made him an above average player despite playing in just 78 games with the team. The Tigers dealt him to Cleveland at the trade deadline.
About a week later, Martin’s season took a turn for the worse when he felt ill after a game in early August. He needed hospitalization and doctors discovered that he had a life-threatening bacterial infection. He’s hoping to be ready to go in spring training next year.
The Tigers pitching staff was mostly a dumpster fire. Matthew Boyd was the only starting pitcher who had enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. He was 9-13 with a 4.39 ERA. That was good enough to make him about league average, which is the best this team could muster from a starter. Out of the bullpen, Joe Jimenez struck out 78 batters in 62.7 innings.
2018 Detroit Tigers: What went wrong?
When you’re paying a guy $30 million, you hope he can play a full season and be productive at the plate. In the case of Miguel Cabrera, that didn’t happen. Cabrera was still an above average hitter (.299/.395/.448, 128 wRC+), but only played 38 games before a ruptured biceps tendon ended his season in June.
When Cabrera went down with his season-ending injury, the Tigers were 31-37 (.456). They went 33-61 (.351) from that point on. That’s not to say missing Cabrera was solely responsible for their ugly record after his injury, but it definitely didn’t help.
As mentioned earlier, Victor Martinez closed out his career this season. It was a brutal ending to a good career. According to Fangraphs WAR, Martinez was the second-worst position player in baseball. Only Chris Davis was worse.
At least Martinez had age to blame. He was 39. The Tigers had too many young players who were below replacement level, including 23-year-old Victor Reyes (-1.0 WAR) and 26-year-old Ronny Rodriguez (-0.9 WAR). They also had players in between the young guys and the old guys who were awful, like 28-year-old Mikie Mahtook (-0.2 WAR), 28-year-old James McCann (-0.1 WAR) and 33-year-old Jim Adduci (-0.5 WAR)
One of the biggest disappointments among the pitchers was Michael Fulmer, who was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2016 and an all-star in 2017. In those two seasons combined, he had 21 wins and a 3.45 ERA. This year, he was 3-12 with a 4.69 ERA. He also spent time on the Disabled List with an oblique injury.
Veteran pitcher Jordan Zimmermann had a Jekyll-&-Hyde season. He had a 7.91 ERA after his first five starts. Then he pitched 12 scoreless innings across two starts before landing on the DL with a shoulder impingement in early May. He came back from the injury and pitched well for another nine starts. In 11 starts from April 30 to August 10, Zimmermann had a 2.80 ERA in 64.3 innings.
For a guy making $24 million per season (and still owed another $50 million over the next two years) this was a hopeful stretch of games. Maybe that contract wouldn’t be a total loss. Then those hopes were dashed when Zimmermann closed out the year with a 5.48 ERA in his last nine starts. It looks like that contract will continue to be an albatross.
In the bullpen, closer Shane Greene showed that a pitcher can save 32 games without being very good. Greene saved 32 games, tied for fourth in the American League, but had a 5.12 ERA thanks in large part to the 12 home runs he allowed in 63.3 innings. Greene had a career-high in saves in what was actually the worst season of his career (-0.1 WAR).
Off the field, the Tigers had an embarrassing situation with pitching coach Chris Bosio. After reportedly referring to an African-American attendant as a “monkey,” Bosio was fired by the team for violating “Club policy and his Uniform Employee Contract.”
Bosio denied the allegations, claiming he was referring to pitcher Daniel Stumpf as “Spider Monkey.” He swore on his mom and dad’s graves it was Stumpf’s nickname, but research revealed that no one ever called Stumpf that. Stumpf himself said, “Spider Monkey is not a nickname I have been called or I’m familiar with.”
2018 Detroit Tigers: Outlook for 2019
The Tigers are rebuilding, but haven’t yet rid themselves of a couple high priced players. There just isn’t much of a market for an injured and expensive Miguel Cabrera or a below average and expensive Jordan Zimmermann. With Cabrera and Zimmermann still on board, the team’s estimated payroll for 2019 is $113 million, which would rank seventh in the AL.
As things are now, the lineup, rotation and bullpen look like this:
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House That Hank Built
C—James McCann
1B—Miguel Cabrera
2B—Niko Goodrum/Dawel Lugo
SS—Ronny Rodriguez/Pete Kozma
3B—Jeimer Candelario
LF—Christin Stewart
CF—JaCoby Jones
RF—Nick Castellanos
DH—Mikie Mahtook
SP—Matthew Boyd
SP—Michael Fulmer
SP—Jordan Zimmermann
SP—Daniel Norris
SP—Blaine Hardy
CL—Shane Greene
RP—Joe Jimenez
RP—Alex Wilson
RP—Louis Coleman
RP—Daniel Stumpf
The Tigers don’t look like even a .500 team yet, but things can change considerably in the months after the World Series and before spring training. And there is some good news down on the farm. According to the farm system rankings at Bleacher Report from August, the Tigers’ minor leaguers rank 10th in baseball.
They have three Tier 1 players, all pitchers, and three Tier 2 players, two of whom are pitchers. Tier 1 players are “prospects who have an elite skill set and All-Star potential” Tier 2 players are “prospects who have a good chance of becoming impact contributors at the MLB level.”
Those three Tier 1 pitchers are Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Franklin Perez. Manning pitched at three levels this season, closing out his year in Double-A. Mize was the number one overall pick in the June Amateur Draft. He had four starts in High-A. Perez didn’t pitch much in 2018 because of an injury.
The Tigers best hitting prospect is outfielder Christin Stewart, who is considered a Tier 2 prospect by Bleacher Report. Stewart spent most of last season in Triple-A, where he hit .264/.364/.480, with 23 homers and 77 RBI. He joined the Tigers in September and hit .267/.375/.417 in 17 games down the stretch, which included a big 2-HR, 6-RBI game against the Royals on September 20. He should get a chance to be the everyday left fielder in 2019.
The best hope for Tigers fans is for the young pitching in the minor leagues to continue to progress. Also, Christin Stewart is someone to watch in the outfield, with Daz Cameron (son of former MLB player Mike Cameron) likely to join him at some point in 2019. Cameron came over from the Houston Astros in the Justin Verlander trade.
Then, of course, there’s future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera. His contract will keep him around for another five years, so it would be great if he could get back to some semblance of his former self. He’s 324 hits away from 3000 for his career and 35 homers away from 500. If he can stay healthy, he should achieve a few significant career milestones in the next few years.
Next. Where to play Niko in 2019?. dark
That’s a look back at the Detroit Tigers in 2018. The 2019 season will hopefully see some moves forward in the rebuilding of the Tigers.