Milwaukee Brewers: Assessing the 2019 rotation options
The Milwaukee Brewers exceeded any and all expectations during the 2018 season. The future has never been brighter for this franchise.
Today, we’ll take a look at what the Milwaukee Brewers options will be for the 2019 starting rotation. As you’ll notice, there are more quality internal options for the Crew to choose from than at any other point in recent memory.
Milwaukee has a trio of young arms who have shown that they might be ready for the next step. We’ll be taking a look at each of these pitchers individually as we move forward so all I’ll say about that, for now, is this: the Brewers have never had this many young, talented arms in the system at any one point in their history.
Although the ill-fated trade to acquire Jonathan Schoop cost Milwaukee a high-caliber starting pitcher in Luis Ortiz, the cupboards are far from bare for the Brewers. Milwaukee still has a few quality arms ranked in their Top-30 prospects, headlined by eighth ranked prospect Zack Brown, to go along with young pitchers Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta.
On top of the youthful options available to the Brewers, they also have a bevy of in-house veteran options to choose from. Ranging from players coming off of poor performance during the season to coming off of injuries, we’ll be looking at those options today as well.
Fans can also never underestimate general manager David Stearns making a completely unforeseen move with a trade or free agent acquisition. I mean, who would’ve predicted that the Milwaukee Brewers would trade for Christian Yelich during the offseason at this point last year? Stearns has surprised fans in the past so we’ll be looking at some of the options available in free agency and on the trade market.
With that being said, let’s take a look at two names guaranteed to be in the 2019 rotation. First, we’ll look at a standout from the 2018 season.
Jhoulys Chacin
The Milwaukee Brewers were aggressive in their pursuit of at least one high-end starting pitcher (Yu Darvish) during the 2018 offseason. Although the team ultimately didn’t sign any “top-end” starters, it was a lower-profile signing that paid the largest dividends for the Crew during last season.
General manager David Stearns struck gold with the two-year pact Jhoulys Chacin signed during last Winter. Chacin quickly emerged as the ace that the Brewers rotation needed during this past season. His impact goes beyond the numbers, but let’s take a look at those quickly anyway.
The Maracaibo, Venezuela native started a career-high 35 games for Milwaukee finishing the season 15-8 with a 3.50 earned run average. He also set a career high with 156 strikeouts en route to being a central figure in helping Milwaukee reach the NLCS for the first time in seven years.
His true impact was the stability that he provided Milwaukee’s rotation. While the Brew Crew scrambled to fill rotation slots for the majority of the season, Chacin was there making his starts at every turn. Not only was he reliable to start every five or so days, but he was also reliable in his performance.
Although Chacin had just 12 quality starts (six or more innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs allowed) on the season, he allowed four or more runs during only seven of his starts. With a chance to win the NL Central, manager Craig Counsell turned to Chacin.
As expected, the right-hander delivered a solid 5 1/3 innings pitched while allowing just one earned run as Milwaukee went on to win the division crown. Chacin has earned his place within the rotation during 2019 with his solid performance during this season. The next player we’ll look at didn’t throw a single pitch during the 2018 season.
Jimmy Nelson
Milwaukee Brewers fans waited all season long to see Jimmy Nelson take the mound. Unfortunately, that day never came as Nelson didn’t appear in a game at any point during last season.
Nelson injured his shoulder, while on base, diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt late during the 2017 season. Although there was some early optimism for his return during the 2018 season, he wasn’t able to progress through his rehab as quickly as some had hoped.
The big right-hander turned the corner for the Brewers during the 2017 season and expectations are high heading into 2019. Nelson will look to build upon his strong numbers in ’17 and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
The 29-year-old turned in his best season to date en route to helping keep Milwaukee surprisingly competitive during the ’17 season. Although the Crew ultimately fell short of reaching the postseason that year, the stage was set for success heading into 2018.
Nelson finished 2017 with a 12-6 record and a 3.49 earned run average while starting 29 games. He finished with a career-best 199 strikeouts across 175 1/3 innings pitched to go along with 10.9 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings).
Following a league-worst 86 walks during the 2016 season, Nelson cut that number almost in half with just 46 walks in ’17. That has given fans hope that Nelson has turned the corner in his development and could take his place in the top spot of this rotation.
Nelson has ace potential and coupled with Chacin and a hopeful resurgence from the next two players on this list, the Milwaukee Brewers rotation is far from a weakness. Let’s take a look now at a couple of returning arms with a good chance to be in the 2019 rotation.
Chase Anderson
What a difference 12 months can make for the outlook of a baseball player! At this point last year, an argument could be made that the Milwaukee Brewers already had the ace of the starting rotation healthy and under contract for the 2018 season. Unfortunately, things didn’t go anywhere near as planned for Chase Anderson during this past season.
Anderson finished the ’17 season with a spectacular 2.47 earned run average and a 12-4 record while making 25 starts. He recorded 133 strikeouts with just 41 walks in 141 1/3 innings pitched. However, it was his ability to limit home runs that helped spur his success during that season.
The right-hander has struggled with keeping the ball in the yard in the past and that has led to higher earned run averages than his talent would suggest. After allowing 28 home runs during the 2016 season, Anderson lowered that number to 14 in ’17 while pitching just 10 1/3 fewer innings.
His 1.090 WHIP (walks and hits plus innings pitched) and his newfound ability to keep the ball in the park had fans salivating over his 2018 potential. Even I personally felt so encouraged by his performance that I speculated Anderson would progress and fill the role of ace for this pitching staff during the ’18 season. Well, I couldn’t have been more wrong or disappointed by that speculation.
Anderson was a mess in the rotation during this season. Although he finished with an earned run average under four (3.93) that’s about the only positive, if that even is that positive, that you can take from his 2018 performance. Anderson reverted back to his 2016 form allowing a whopping 30 home runs in his 30 starts during this season.
His season was so bad that he was removed from the rotation down the stretch and was used to pitch sparingly. Luckily that’s now in the rearview mirror and Anderson can turn his focus to regaining his 2017 form for the 2019 season.
Anderson has a bright future in the middle of the Milwaukee Brewers rotation if he can stay healthy and learn how to keep the ball in the park more efficiently. The next player on our list will also be looking to rebound following a disappointing 2018 campaign.
Zach Davies
Zach Davies is entering a critical phase of his MLB career. Davies has shown that he belongs on an MLB mound during his career with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, he needs to show that he can be consistent in order to have the type of season that his talent suggests he is capable of.
The 25-year-old had a solid, if not unspectacular, season for Milwaukee during the 2017 season. He finished the season 17-9 with a 3.90 earned run average while leading the league with 33 starts. He also had just 124 strikeouts with 55 walks in 191 1/3 innings pitched.
Davies definitely showed the potential to be a solid back-end of the rotation pitcher. However, he could never really get things going during the 2018 season and has slipped into the fringes of this rotation.
The right-hander pitched in just 13 games last season and the results were brutal. He allowed one more hit (67) than innings pitched (66) and finished with a 1.333 WHIP. However, Davies struggled through a few injuries and missed a portion of the season. Given a full offseason to get healthy he should regain his place in the back of this rotation.
Davies is arbitration eligible for the first time entering this offseason so he’s likely due a decent raise. He’s also a very quality Major League starting pitcher when he’s healthy and can anchor this rotation on the back-end.
Davies should factor into this team’s immediate future in the rotation. However, we’ll take a look at three young pitchers on the rise who will definitely be pushing Davies for a place of their own.
Corbin Burnes
The future star of the Milwaukee Brewers rotation is Corbin Burnes. Drafted during the 2016 MLB draft, the right-hander has ascended through the system quickly making his MLB debut during last season.
Although the former 4th round pick pitched exclusively out of the bullpen during last season, his rightful place is in the rotation. It should be noted, Burnes was in the rotation for the majority of his Minor League career.
Burnes burst onto the scene with a pristine 1.67 earned run average during the 2017 season. He pitched 145 2/3 innings with 140 strikeouts and 35 walks en route to being named Milwaukee’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.
He topped out at the Double-A level during 2017 and opened last season playing in Triple-A. Although his numbers were uninspiring, let’s not forget that he was pitching in Colorado Springs and plenty of pitchers have struggled in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains.
However, Burnes emerged as one of the Brewers most effective relievers down the stretch following a midseason call-up. Manager Craig Counsell showed zero hesitation in using Burnes, throwing him into high-leverage situations from the beginning, and Burnes responded.
The 24-year-old finished the 2018 season with 35 strikeouts in 38 innings pitched while issuing 11 walks. Burnes also had a solid 2.61 earned run average while finishing with a 7-0 record.
Burnes has all the makings of a stud at the front of the rotation. He throws four pitches confidently while effectively changing speeds to keep hitters off balance. His power fastball and killer curveball combination will help him rack up plenty of strikeouts before his career is over.
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta is one of those pitchers that gets the most out of his abilities and has a great chance to be in the 2019 rotation. Peralta was the surprise of the 2018 pitching staff and currently finds himself firmly in this discussion.
The right-hander won’t overpower you with his low-90’s fastball but his deceptive delivery helps him get the job done. He does a good job throwing strikes and changing speeds. That helps keep hitters from being able to sit on his fastball and contributes to his success.
Peralta finished the 2018 season with a 4.25 earned run average in 14 starts, 16 games total. Although the earned run average is a bit high, some of his other numbers give fans a reason for hope.
The 22-year-old had 96 strikeouts and a 1.136 WHIP in 76 2/3 innings pitched and definitely has the look of a strikeout pitcher. Milwaukee will have a couple of spots in the rotation up for grabs and Peralta deserves to be in the mix. However, he’s the least likely of these three pitchers to open the 2019 season in the rotation.
Brandon Woodruff
Another young Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher to make an impact out of the bullpen was Brandon Woodruff. The right-hander spent considerable chunks of the 2018 season in the Minors but should see plenty of Major League action this upcoming season.
Woodruff appeared in 19 games, with four starts, for the Crew during the 2018 season. He emerged down the stretch as a reliable option out of the pen and earned a place on the Brewers postseason roster.
He finished the season with a 3.61 earned run average with 47 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings pitched. When Milwaukee started using its bullpen more than its starters (on purpose) down the stretch, Woodruff stepped his game up.
Woodruff allowed just one earned run across 12 1/3 innings pitched in seven appearances for Milwaukee during September. That was enough to secure his role with the Brewers for the playoffs and his future looking ahead.
The 25-year-old pitched 12 1/3 innings with 20 strikeouts and just three walks during the postseason. He allowed a meager. 175 opponent batting average and allowed only three runs while pitching big innings for Milwaukee. Oh yeah, he also hit a home run off of Clayton Kershaw.
Woodruff has the potential to be a very good MLB pitcher. He throws hard and keeps hitters off balance with his offspeed pitches. He also has the type of “stuff” that will help him continue to have success in the bullpen.
One way or another, Woodruff will play a significant role for Milwaukee this upcoming season. Next, we’ll take a look at three more internal candidates for the Brewers 2019 rotation.
Junior Guerra
With Junior Guerra eligible for arbitration for the first time during this offseason, he’s just as likely to be not offered a contract as he is to head to Spring Training with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, Guerra has had success for the Crew in the past and at the very least deserves a serious look heading into the 2019 season.
Guerra was the Brewers top pitcher during the 2016 season finishing 9-3 with an impressive 2.81 earned run average across 20 starts. However, he has struggled to find the same success during the following two seasons and enters this offseason on the outside looking in at the rotation.
The 33-year-old appeared in 52 games, 40 starts, with a 4.43 earned run average during the previous two seasons. Guerra struggled with injuries during the 2017 season and could never find consistency in the rotation during the 2018 season.
However, much like a few of the pitchers discussed within this piece, Guerra carved out a nice role for himself in the Brewers bullpen down the stretch during last season. His five appearances out of the bullpen during the ’18 season all came after September 11 and he earned a place on the Brewers postseason roster.
He pitched six innings of relief allowing zero earned runs with eight strikeouts and zero walks for the Crew. Although his future in the rotation may be drawing to a close, Guerra has a chance to finish his career as a solid bullpen option.
Brent Suter
There’s something about Brent Suter that makes fans cheer for him regardless of their fandom. Maybe it’s the fact that his fastball tops out in the mid-80’s, or maybe it’s his quirky personality. Whatever the reason, Brewers fans all around are rooting for Suter to be with Milwaukee during the upcoming season.
Suter won’t light up any radar guns or rack up strikeouts in bunches, but he does limit hard contact and that’s the key to his success. The left-hander has a herky-jerky delivery that makes it hard for lefties to get solid contact.
He also spots his pitches well and does a tremendous job of mixing his pitches which helps him have success against right-handed batters as well. The Harvard grad has had to earn every opportunity thus far during his career and will have a chance to impact the Brewers during the 2019 season.
Suter was off to a good start last season prior to suffering an arm injury during the summer. He finished the season with a 4.44 earned run average in 101 1/3 innings pitched. Although his earned run average is higher than you would prefer, Suter was Milwaukee’s lone left-handed option in the rotation for the majority of the season.
The 29-year-old has a better chance of carving out a niche as the long man for the Brewers moving forward. He can come into games and pitch multiple innings if the starter struggles, while also being available for any spot starts that may arise throughout the season. The road to the rotation will be long for Suter in 2019, especially if the next pitcher on our list is in the mix as well.
Wade Miley
Although Wade Miley is a free agent this Winter, I’m including him in this group because he pitched for Milwaukee during the 2018 season. The Brewers will obviously need to re-sign him if he’s going to contribute in the rotation next season, but Miley has done enough to earn another opportunity.
Miley struggled through some injuries early during the 2018 season but was effective enough down the stretch to be in Milwaukee’s postseason starting rotation. He didn’t make his first appearance until May 2 and started two games that month before going on the disabled list until July 12.
The left-hander was spectacular for Milwaukee during his 16 games during ’18. He finished the season 5-2 with a 2.57 earned run average in 80 1/3 innings pitched. The 31-year-old also had 50 strikeouts with 27 walks and allowed just three home runs all season.
As good as Miley was all season, while healthy, his performance down the stretch helped Milwaukee reach the postseason. He allowed nine earned runs during his final five starts with six of those runs coming in his final two starts of the season.
The important number to look at during that stretch is the 5-0 record the Milwaukee Brewers had during those starts. Miley provided a solid veteran option for a young team down the stretch and the importance of that can’t be overstated.
Miley has a chance to turn that success into a decent payday during this offseason and if that’s the case then I hope it’s not with Milwaukee. However, if the price is right, Miley would be a great fit in what will be a right-handed heavy rotation.
As we move along to the next part of our list, we’ll be taking a look at the free agent and trade markets. Here are four players that the Brewers should check in on during this Winter.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
If Clayton Kershaw opts out of his contract and becomes a free agent the Milwaukee Brewers should definitely kick the tires with him. However, he’s probably out of the Brewers price range and Milwaukee is better off concentrating on other players. Likewise for Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin, so we’ll look at more reasonable options today.
With Milwaukee likely out of the running for the top arms available, I would like to see them to take a look at adding Hyun-Jin Ryu. The veteran left-hander spent time on the disabled list during the 2018 season but still shows an ability to get the job done when he’s healthy.
Ryu started just 15 games for the Dodgers during the 2018 season but finished with a remarkable 1.97 earned run average. He amassed 89 strikeouts with 15 walks and just 18 earned runs across 82 1/3 innings pitched during last season. His experience in big games would help this rotation immensely.
As I stated while discussing Wade Miley, the Brewers rotation will likely be right-handed heavy. Signing Ryu not only will give the Crew another left-handed option in the rotation but also a legitimate top of the rotation type of pitcher. Don’t get that confused with being an ace because Ryu is far from deserving of that distinction. However, he’ll be among the top two starters in whichever rotation he joins.
Garrett Richards
With the quality, and quantity, of arms in Milwaukee’s possession another name to keep an eye on is Garrett Richards. The right-hander is in the midst of recovering from Tommy John surgery so signing him would be more for the 2020 season than it would be 2019.
However, Richards has been impressive throughout his career with the Los Angeles Angels. The problem for Richards has been staying on the field as he hasn’t pitched in more than 16 games since the 2015 season. He was impressive for L.A. during that year finishing with a 3.65 earned run average while making 32 starts.
Although he isn’t expected to pitch until the 2020 season, the window of contention is wide open for Milwaukee and he will still be useful when he’s healthy. The Brewers don’t need to spend their entire budget on one big name free agent or sell the farm in a trade to stay in contention this year. However, if they do the latter, I hope it’s for one of the two following players.
Madison Bumgarner
Every team with even a small hope at contending will be in the market for Madison Bumgarner should San Francisco make him available. In the event that that happens, the Milwaukee Brewers should be prepared to go “all-in” to acquire the veteran hurler.
Bumgarner brings everything to the table that Milwaukee has lacked for years. He’s left-handed and has a long proven track record of success in MLB. Plus, if you slot him into the top spot of your rotation it makes everything that follows look that much better.
He started just 21 games during the ’18 season finishing with a 3.26 earned run average. The 28-year-old had 109 strikeouts in just 129 2/3 innings pitched and continues to be among the best in baseball after more than nine seasons in MLB.
However, Bumgarner has just one season remaining on his contract so Milwaukee will need to weigh the risk versus the reward. Although it would be nice to have Bumgarner for another hopeful playoff run during this season, chances are that he’ll be too expensive for the Crew to retain beyond the 2019 season.
Marcus Stroman
Another player that Milwaukee needs to keep an eye on is Blue Jays starter, Marcus Stroman. Much like Bumgarner, Stroman may not even be made available during this offseason by Toronto. However, Milwaukee should be in the conversation in the event that he is put on the market.
Stroman has been the subject of trade rumors since last offseason and still hasn’t changed cities. With Toronto playing in arguably baseball’s toughest division, and contention looking like it’s a long ways out, this could finally be the time we see Stroman on the move.
Stroman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season so the cost to acquire his services will be steep. However, Milwaukee still has plenty of ammunition in the minors to pull off a blockbuster deal here.
The 28-year-old finished the 2017 season with a 3.09 earned run average in 33 starts. However, he struggled with injuries and took the mound for only 19 games during the 2018 season.
He finished this past season with a terrible 5.54 earned run average with 77 strikeouts and 36 walks. Following consecutive seasons with more than 200 innings pitched, Stroman only accumulated 101 2/3 innings during his injury-plagued 2018 season.
His price will be expensive because of the control that comes along with acquiring him. However, he’ll be less expensive than anybody the Mets might make available, and outside of Bumgarner or the Mets pitchers, brings the most upside for the future.
In conclusion, the future of the Milwaukee Brewers rotation is extremely bright. This team has numerous options to choose between already under contract heading into the 2019 season.
However, if Milwaukee wants to take the next step in their progression, adding a top-end starting pitcher will help them achieve their goals. A player like Madison Bumgarner or Dallas Keuchel would really push this rotation to the next level.
The problem with that is the fact that the Brewers are a small market team without the resources to offer lucrative contracts like Chicago or New York. They’ll probably have to overpay just to acquire a pitcher in a trade at this point.
As it stands now, Milwaukee will have at least three spots up for grabs in the rotation heading into Spring Training. Chase Anderson is an almost lock to occupy one of those spots. So, that leaves us a handful or more internal options with plenty available on the open market.
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This is a tremendous problem for the Brewers to have and one that this organization isn’t used to having. Although Milwaukee isn’t blessed with an ace potential starter outside of possibly Corbin Burnes or Jimmy Nelson, this team is chock full of Major League caliber pitching.
The farm system is still deep enough that this team can supplement the rotation via trade. However, with as many quality arms as Milwaukee currently has, there is no reason to make a panic trade or free agency signing.
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This team doesn’t need another Jeff Suppan or Matt Garza in order to get over the hump. They just need to continue to develop their own players and avoid making the mistakes of the past in the free agent market. The 2018 season ended less than a week ago for the Crew, but all of the attention is already on next year.