San Francisco Giants 2019 plan 1: Go For It

The San Francisco Giants are in a very important offseason for the franchise. We explore three options for how the team could address the upcoming season.

After bringing in a number of veterans over the 2017/2018 offseason, the San Francisco Giants went from 64 wins to 73 wins, but that put the team 18 1/2 games behind the division winner and 17 1/2 games out of the 2nd Wild Card. As they face a major crossroads in their organization, we examine where the team could head with the 2018/2019 offseason.

This is part of a 3-part series on what the San Francisco Giants could do with a new general manager in place this offseason. After two seasons far out of playoff competition, the Giants are ready for a change, and we will address three different routes the team could go.

Today, we will address the idea of the San Francisco Giants going “all-in” in 2019. With their current veteran lineup, the Giants have a roster that could make a playoff run with a few moves to fortify the roster.

We’ll first look at the team’s contract situation, both short-term and long-term, then explore those players who will be free agents this offseason. Last we’ll address the arbitration-eligible players and their current projections.

After reviewing all of those players, we’ll have a pretty good idea where the San Francisco Giants sit for 2018 in salary obligations. At that point, we can begin to address moves to strengthen the roster to compete in 2019 and return to the postseason, where anything can truly happen.

Current Roster

Before deciding which players to target, we need to address the players that are currently on the roster and whether they’ll remain on the roster in 2019.

Impending Free Agents
Hunter Pence, OF
Nick Hundley, C
Derek Holland, P
Gregor Blanco, OF
Peter Bourjos, OF
Pablo Sandoval, IF

Options – $12 million total
Madison Bumgarner, P, $12 million, $1.5 million buyout

This will be one of the easiest decisions of the offseason. Regardless of the club’s plans with Bumgarner after 2019, this is a great salary for a top-notch pitcher. The new GM will have the easiest decision of his or her first week on the job by picking up MadBum’s option.

Long-term contracts – $128.38 million total
Buster Posey, C, $22.18 million
Evan Longoria, 3B, $14.67 million
Johnny Cueto, P, $21.83 million
Jeff Samardzija, P, $19.8 million
Brandon Crawford, SS, $15.2 million
Brandon Belt, 1B, $17.2 million
Mark Melancon, P, $14 million
Tony Watson, P, $3.5 million

Some very ugly deals here for sure, especially when you look at the length beyond just 2019 of all of these deals.

Arbitration-eligible players
Sam Dyson, P, $5.4 million projection
Joe Panik, 2B, $4.2 million projection
Will Smith, P, $4.1 million projection
Hunter Strickland, P, $2.5 million projection
Gorkys Hernandez, OF, $1.6 million projection

All five arbitration players are certainly worthy of their contracts, and it would be a wise investment on the part of the Giants to sign all five.

Pre-arbitration players
Ty Blach, P
Chris Stratton, P
Andrew Suarez, P
Dereck Rodriguez, P
Reyes Moronta, P
Ray Black, P
Josh Osich, P,
Steven Duggar, OF
Mac Williamson, OF
Alen Hanson, IF/OF
Aramis Garcia, C
Chris Shaw, 1B/OF
Tyler Beede, P
Roberto Gomez, P
Pierce Johnson, P
Derek Law, P
Steven Okert, P
Austin Slater, OF
Ryder Jones, 1B/3B

Rodriguez and Hanson were both huge surprises for the San Francisco Giants in 2018, and both will have significant roles on the team in 2019.

With all of these players currently listed, the estimated payroll is ~$154 million. That gives us an idea of where to go from here.

Going all-in: the San Francisco Giants needs

With Madison Bumgarner entering his final season as a member of the San Francisco Giants, the team could take the route of filling in the roster around him for one last push for the playoffs.

The needs for the team are many, however, which will require some smart spending/trading.

Bullpen – One area of strength is certainly the bullpen. While the Giants finished just a hair better than league average as a bullpen over the full season in 2018, the team’s relief corps formed very well once Will Smith was settled into the closer’s role, which put many of the other pitchers into roles within the ‘pen.

Rotation – The starting rotation will be headed by Bumgarner, and the team will not be expecting anything from Cueto after Tommy John surgery in August of 2018. After that, the rotation is certainly anyone’s guess.

Dereck Rodriguez definitely earned a spot for 2019 with a brilliant 2018 campaign, and Andrew Suarez was solid as a back-end starter. Jeff Samardzija, if healthy, is a very solid #3/4 type, but the team needs another excellent arm at the top of the rotation.

Catcher – Incredible to think that a team with future Hall of Fame catcher Buster Posey needs to consider its catching situation, but with Posey dealing with a major knee injury in 2018, a very high-level backup would be a wise idea, even with Aramis Garcia looming in the minors.

Infield – The starting positions around the infield are set, and Hanson offers depth, but it would always be wise to add more depth, though probably not from the top of the free agent list.

Outfield – While Steven Duggar was tremendous and has the backing of Gorkys Hernandez behind him, that only solves center field. The Giants will need outfield depth and some impact from at least one corner to make it back to the top.

So what do those moves look like?

San Francisco Giants moves to go all-in

The likely “big” move would have to be done to address the rotation. With Bumgarner a free agent after 2019, this could be a guy to potentially lead the rotation after the 2019 season. That’s why I could see the Giants going big after Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel. That’s likely $20-25 million for 2019 and beyond.

In addition, the Giants could bring in a low-priced veteran, like Ervin Santana (provided the Twins decline his option), James Shields (if the White Sox decline his option), Anibal Sanchez, or even a younger guy who will likely go for fairly cheap on the market in Trevor Cahill. Those pitchers may not make the final team, but if they did, they would provide innings depth to the rotation to help keep the bullpen rested. The offer should be around $5 million or less to bring in one of these options, if even that much needs to be offered.

To address catcher, rather than shopping at the top of the market, the Giants would be well-served to bring back Nick Hundley, who has served very well as a backup for something near his $2.5 million 2018 salary.

To protect themselves against infield injury and add in another helpful bat, the San Francisco Giants could then offer $10-12 million over 2 years to Asdrubal Cabrera, Marwin Gonzalez, Daniel Descalso, and Jed Lowrie with the backup of pursuing a guy like Jordy Mercer, Adeiny Hechavarria, or Jose Iglesias for a strong defensive option if those players become too expensive for around $1-3 million.

While the big names like Bryce Harper could be too expensive, the Giants could be very smart in pursuing outfielders by offering short-term “make good” deals, pursuing a pair of familiar players, with Carlos Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera. The combination should be able to be signed for $10 million combined for 2019 with options for 2020

If the Giants get the top end of their “bench” options (Daniel Descalso, for instance) for $10 million over two years, that would make the 2019 contract impact approximately $42.5 million added for 2019. With a 2019 luxury tax of $206 million, that will allow the Giants to duck under just barely with $196.5 million, leaving a little room for midseason acquisitions.