Philadelphia Phillies: Facing priorities toward acquiring a closer

Financial options:

Besides closers who are 33 or younger for three-year commitments, the Phillies have the flexibility to tap a candidate from a handful of relievers already on their active 25. Otherwise, Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson will cost more than Familia, Cody Allen and Kelvin Herrera.

Calculation for a blowup:

• 4 earned runs or more for less than 2 innings.
• 3 earned runs for less than 1 inning.
• no situations were present for unearned runs for these relievers.

Beginning at the top, Kimbrel had a higher ERA in three of his last four campaigns than his four seasons with the Atlanta Braves. In ’18, he recorded a 2.74 ERA, 42 saves and one blowup. But he earned $13 million in 2018 and will receive offers at or above that.

Even though Robertson might consider a two-summer pact, he also earned $13 million in ’18, but he can work difficult frames and close. He had a 3.23 ERA, five saves, 21 holds and two blowups. That stated, the red pinstripes may need to make the postseason first before adding a high-caliber arm.

After receiving $10.6 million for last season, Allen had a off year with a 4.70 ERA, 27 saves, seven holds and three blowups. But he’ll only be 30 and he had four consecutive 162s with a sub-3.00 ERA. In other words, he may be open to a three-campaign contract at $8-10 million per summer. Bears watching!

Herrera earned $7.94 million for 2018 in his final arbitration year but will probably be in the $6-8 million range. However, after he had excelled with the Kansas City Royals, he had a 4.34 ERA with the Washington Nationals for 21 outings before ending up on the DL. Overall, he produced a 2.44 ERA, 17 saves and no blowups.

Like Allen and Herrera, Familia is a first-time free agent. Last year, he made $7.93 million, had a 3.13 ERA, 18 saves but two blowups and has recorded four solid 162s over five seasons. That stated, he is someone the Phils could have interest in.

In-house fixes:

Even though the finances are available for a hitter, a left-handed starter and a closer, the Phillies may prefer to rely on one of their flamethrowers as a first-season contender. And, if they do, they’ll probably only call on Pat Neshek and Edubray Ramos for an occasional ninth-inning appearance.

Calculation for a blowup:

• 4 earned runs or more for less than 2 innings.
• 3 earned runs for less than 1 inning.
• no situations were present for unearned runs for these relievers.

Although he had converted three first-half saves with a 2.73 ERA overall, Victor Arano had a 2.96 second-half ERA despite two blowups. However, he went from fighting for a 40-man spot in late 2017 to a setup role. Can he turn heads again by closing?

After a pedestrian first half, Tommy Hunter produced a 3.00 ERA after the mid-July vacation with three of his four saves. As for blowups, he had none for ’18. And since he has prior closing experience, he could fill the bill with Seranthony Dominguez handling the toughest outs.

The good guys are grooming Dominguez for critical situations. And if that’s the ninth, he’ll close out those victories. He had a 2.95 ERA, 16 saves, 14 holds and one blowup, but Hector Neris might give him some competition.

After a demotion to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Neris pitched like a man who didn’t want another MiLB stint. He had three blowups in the first half but none with a 2.04 ERA after his return. And if he can perform like he did in those last 20 outings, he’ll either close or also handle many critical frames.

To sum up, the red pinstripes have the dollars, but is it too soon to add a pennant-bound piece for the ninth inning? Basically, they could go with a solid lower-cost closer, an in-house arm or a matchup approach. But is there something they could trade for? A lefty setup man?

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Calculation for a blowup:

• 4 earned runs or more for less than 2 innings.
• 3 earned runs for less than 1 inning.
• no situations were present for unearned runs for these relievers.

Free-agent blowup comparison:   

• Kimbrel: 1
• Robertson: 2
• Allen: 3
• Herrera: 0
• Familia: 2

Phillies blowup comparison: 

• Dominguez: 1
• Neris: 3
• Hunter: 0
• Arano: 2

Free-agent closers:     

• Kimbrel, 30.5: 63 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., a 2.74 ERA, 42 Saves, 5 BS, a 3.13 FIP, a 3.13 xFIP, a 2.71 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 0.99 WHIP.
• Robertson, 33.5: 67 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
• Allen, almost 30: 70 Gms., 67 Inn., a 4.70 ERA, 27 Saves, 7 Holds, 5 BS, a 4.56 FIP, a 4.55 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.36 WHIP.
• Herrera, almost 29: 48 Gms., 44 1/3 Inn., a 2.44 ERA, 17 Saves, 2 Holds, 2 BS, a 3.95 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 3.80 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.20 WHIP.
• Familia, 29: 70 Gms., 72 Inn., a 3.13 ERA, 18 Saves, 7 Holds, a 2.65 FIP, a 3.53 xFIP, a 3.33 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.

Phillies relievers:  

• Dominguez, almost 24: 53 Gms., 58 Inn., a 2.95 ERA, 16 Saves, 14 Holds, 4 BS, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 2.81 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
• Neris, 29: 53 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 5.10 ERA, 11 Saves, 4 Holds, 3 BS,  a 4.04 FIP, a 2.71 xFIP, a 2.28 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
• Hunter, 32: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
• Arano, 23.5: 60 Gms., 59 1/3 Inn., a 2.73 ERA, 3 Saves, 10 Holds, a 3.36 FIP, a 3.94 xFIP, a 3.48 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.20 WHIP.

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