Los Angeles Dodgers: Has Clayton Kershaw pitched his final game in LA?

Fresh off their second consecutive World Series loss, things could soon get worse for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Has Clayton Kershaw pitched his final game in LA?

The Los Angeles Dodgers, one of baseball’s most illustrious franchises, are in a bit of a bind. They have made it to the World Series just to come up short two years in a row, and are heading into an uncertain offseason set to include an FBI investigation.

To make matters worse, Clayton Kershaw, their longtime face of the franchise, could elect to opt out of his contract and hit free agency this winter. This free agency class, featuring Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, is already one of the best ever, but could it claim yet another superstar?

We will know the answer in no more than three days. After originally believing he had ten days to negotiate with the Dodgers, Kershaw now says that he and the Dodgers have three days to hash things out.

The Dodgers will know the fate of their prized southpaw sometime in the next 72 hours, well before the sting of another disappointing Fall Classic subsides. When it rains, it pours.

Although many opt-out cases are fairly obvious, Kershaw’s intentions remain unclear. On one hand, he is a Hall of Fame-bound starting pitcher who would theoretically make a killing on the open market. On the other hand, he is on the wrong side of 30 and is already showing signs of decline.

Any team would obviously love to have Kershaw headline their rotation. But what version of Kershaw would they be getting?

He has remained effective, pitching to a 2.73 ERA in 2018, but there are some red flags. His balky back has caused him to miss time in each of the last three seasons, making it difficult to even come close to the 200-innning milestone. For the amount of money Kershaw will likely command, suitors would prefer for him to be a workhorse.

Kershaw has also been experiencing diminished velocity. It is unreasonable to expect him to still be throwing in the upper-nineties, as he did early in his career, but his velocity is significantly lower than it was just a year ago.

In October 2017, Kershaw’s average fastball velocity was 93.14 mph. Meanwhile, his average fastball was 90.87 mph this October, and many of his fastballs throughout the postseason sat in the upper-eighties. He still managed to get outs with diminished velocity, but fastball velocity is typically a fairly accurate predictor of future success for a pitcher. If this trend continues, Kershaw’s best days are well behind him.

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So how will this affect Kershaw’s decision? As things currently stand, he is set to make $65 million over the next two years. This is probably a little more than he is presently worth, especially if he continues to decline. Knowing this, would Kershaw really opt out of his deal and possibly say goodbye to the only franchise he has ever known? Yes and no.

If the Dodgers and Kershaw are unable to agree to an extension over the next few days, expect Kershaw to opt out and hit free agency for the first time in his career. But don’t expect him to go anywhere. Even if he does reach free agency, the Dodgers would be the frontrunner for his services.

Kershaw has a good rapport with the Dodgers and has become a larger-than-life figure in LA. He has seen firsthand how well Sandy Koufax is treated around the Dodgers organization, even after not throwing a pitch since 1966, over 20 years before Kershaw was born. If Kershaw remains a Dodger for his entire career, he will be idolized perhaps even more than Koufax.

Very few players spend their entire career with one organization nowadays, but Kershaw has a chance to do just that. He and the Los Angeles Dodgers have a good thing going and can continue to contend for years to come. If Kershaw becomes a free agent and the other offers are comparable, which they likely would be, he would be wise to remain in LA. He has already earned nearly $200 million throughout his career; why tarnish your legacy over a little extra cash?

A lot of attention will be given to Clayton Kershaw and his contract negotiations over the coming days, but there is a good chance that he remains with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He may opt out and sign a new contract or just extend his current deal, but odds are that he will still be a Dodger in 2019.