San Francisco Giants 2019 Plan 2: Quick re-tool
The San Francisco Giants are in a very important offseason for the franchise. We explore three options for how the team could address the upcoming season.
After bringing in a number of veterans over the 2017/2018 offseason, the San Francisco Giants went from 64 wins to 73 wins, but that put the team 18 1/2 games behind the division winner and 17 1/2 games out of the 2nd Wild Card. As they face a major crossroads in their organization, we examine where the team could head with the 2018/2019 offseason.
This is part of a 3-part series on what the San Francisco Giants could do with a new general manager in place this offseason. After two seasons far out of playoff competition, the Giants are ready for a change, and we will address three different routes the team could go.
Previously, we looked at the idea of the Giants going “all-in” on the 2019 season. Today, we will address the idea of the San Francisco Giants making a few moves to trade pieces to likely struggle again in 2019, but to have financial space to compete again in 2020 and beyond.
We’ll first look at the team’s contract situation, both short-term and long-term, then explore those players who will be free agents this offseason. Last we’ll address the arbitration-eligible players and their current projections.
After reviewing all of those players, we’ll have a pretty good idea where the San Francisco Giants sit for 2019 in salary obligations. At that point, we can begin to address moves to strengthen the roster to compete in 2019 and return to the postseason, where anything can truly happen.
Current Roster
Before deciding which players to target, we need to address the players that are currently on the roster and whether they’ll remain on the roster in 2019.
Impending Free Agents
Hunter Pence, OF
Nick Hundley, C
Derek Holland, P
Gregor Blanco, OF
Peter Bourjos, OF
Pablo Sandoval, IF
Options – $12 million total
Madison Bumgarner, P, $12 million, $1.5 million buyout
This will be one of the easiest decisions of the offseason. Regardless of the club’s plans with Bumgarner after 2019, this is a great salary for a top-notch pitcher. The new GM will have the easiest decision of his or her first week on the job by picking up MadBum’s option.
Long-term contracts – $128.38 million total
Buster Posey, C, $22.18 million
Evan Longoria, 3B, $14.67 million
Johnny Cueto, P, $21.83 million
Jeff Samardzija, P, $19.8 million
Brandon Crawford, SS, $15.2 million
Brandon Belt, 1B, $17.2 million
Mark Melancon, P, $14 million
Tony Watson, P, $3.5 million
Some very ugly deals here for sure, especially when you look at the length beyond just 2019 of all of these deals.
Arbitration-eligible players
Sam Dyson, P, $5.4 million projection
Joe Panik, 2B, $4.2 million projection
Will Smith, P, $4.1 million projection
Hunter Strickland, P, $2.5 million projection
Gorkys Hernandez, OF, $1.6 million projection
All five arbitration players are certainly worthy of their contracts, and it would be a wise investment on the part of the Giants to sign all five.
Pre-arbitration players
Ty Blach, P
Chris Stratton, P
Andrew Suarez, P
Dereck Rodriguez, P
Reyes Moronta, P
Ray Black, P
Josh Osich, P,
Steven Duggar, OF
Mac Williamson, OF
Alen Hanson, IF/OF
Aramis Garcia, C
Chris Shaw, 1B/OF
Tyler Beede, P
Roberto Gomez, P
Pierce Johnson, P
Derek Law, P
Steven Okert, P
Austin Slater, OF
Ryder Jones, 1B/3B
Rodriguez and Hanson were both huge surprises for the San Francisco Giants in 2018, and both will have significant roles on the team in 2019.
With all of these players currently listed, the estimated payroll is ~$154 million. That gives us an idea of where to go from here.
The San Francisco Giants retooling needs/plans
The San Francisco Giants pushed their chips to the middle of the table in 2018, but it was decisions before 2018 that have put the San Francisco Giants into this position.
In fact, the major decisions that have set up this financial crisis were part of one 6 month period of time from November of 2015 through April of 2016. In that 6-month time frame, the San Francisco Giants signed contracts that totaled over $365 million in commitments between extensions and free agent deals.
This was after the team had won 3 titles in 5 seasons from 2010-2014. It seemed every even-numbered season that the San Francisco Giants would be on their way to a championship, so gearing up for another run in 2016 just seemed to make sense.
Some big things have changed since then.
First, the Giants missed out on that postseason, losing in the NLDS to the eventual World Series champs. There was a new Collective Bargaining Agreement signed as well that established the luxury tax, and that’s what is making things hairy for the Giants going forward with a huge amount of money locked up on just a handful of players long term.
The plan would be to shed some of the long-term deals this offseason, which could hurt in 2019, but it will set the team up to be able to compete better in 2020 and beyond.
So what do those moves look like?
San Francisco Giants moves to retool
Madison Bumgarner will be a free agent after 2019, and the team needs to clear up funds to be able to sign him…or another arm to lead their rotation. The San Francisco Giants also have one of the worst farm systems in baseball as well. Being able to have some salary cleared while also adding in some prospect depth, even if it’s not an elite prospect.
These trades may thin the bullpen, but with the depth in the bullpen, it could be something the team could handle.
Atlanta Braves trade Max Fried, Jacob Webb, and Jacob Lindgren
San Francisco Giants trade Will Smith and Jeff Samardzija
Minnesota Twins trade Max Kepler and Ricky De La Torre
San Francisco Giants trade Joe Panik, Mark Melancon, and cash
The trade with the Braves would allow for the Giants to clear the salary of Samardzija (~$40M/2 years) by using the valuable relief arm of Smith. Smith is a free agent after the 2019 season, and he could receive a qualifying offer, which would allow the Braves to get a compensatory draft pick, something very valuable as they go through their punishment in the international market.
The Twins trade gives the Twins a veteran reliever that they seek along with a second baseman to fill that hole in their lineup. Kepler fills an outfield need in San Francisco and is not yet arbitration eligible. De La Torre is an upside player as a 2017 draftee from Puerto Rico with a good glove and emerging power at shortstop at 18.
Those two deals would clear over $80 million from the 2019 and 2020 payrolls between Samardzija’s and Melancon’s salaries along with the arbitration projections of Panik and Smith. That would allow the Giants to enter the 2019/2020 offseason with money to approach the free agent market, which will be rich.
In that offseason, not only will they be able to pursue their own ace in Bumgarner, but some of the other top arms available would be Gerrit Cole, Miles Mikolas, Rick Porcello, Zack Wheeler, Justin Verlander, and multiple players with options or opt-out clauses.
If the team finds they need to address second base after the 2019 season showed neither Gordon nor Avelino worthy of the spot, Scooter Gennett and Jonathan Schoop are both free agents that offseason as well as Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius if the team wants to move Crawford or believes either would move to second base.
The outfield is always an issue for the San Francisco Giants, and the 2019/2020 free agent class would give the Giants opportunities to fill that outfield well with players like Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Hicks, Nicholas Castellanos, Corey Dickerson, Yasiel Puig, and multiple others with options or opt-out clauses that could give plenty of power in the outfield market.
Potential Giants retool 2019 roster
With all of these moves, the final roster of the 2019 San Francisco Giants would look something like this:
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C – Buster Posey
1B – Brandon Belt
2B – Abatal Avelino
3B – Evan Longoria
SS – Brandon Crawford
LF – Mac Williamson
CF – Steven Duggar
RF – Max Kepler
Bench – Aramis Garcia, Alen Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, Ryder Jones, Austin Slater
SP – Madison Bumgarner
SP – Dereck Rodriguez
SP – Max Fried
SP – Andrew Suarez
SP – Chris Stratton
CL – Sam Dyson
RP – Hunter Strickland, Tony Watson, Reyes Moronta, Ty Blach, Ray Black, Jacob Lindgren
That may not be a team that inspires, but Johnny Cueto would be returning from Tommy John during the season, but most likely not impact the team at all. There are multiple high-ceiling bullpen arms still not listed here that could be used for a very solid bullpen behind what would be a young rotation.
This lineup also does not contain any signings for just the 2019 season, and certainly, the Giants could make a few one-year deals to lengthen out the roster while also keeping finances free for 2020.
Next. Giants 2018 minor league awards. dark
That is part two of three parts we will have for the 2019 Giants possible rosters. What do you think of this potential lineup? Would this be enough cleared finances to make an impact in 2020?