Washington Nationals look to 2019 after disappointing season
In what was supposed to be their year, the Washington Nationals were MLB’s most disappointing team. After two consecutive division titles, the Nats watched from home in October.
2018 was supposed to be the year that the Washington Nationals finally got over the hump. DC was set to host the All-Star Game, Bryce Harper was in his final year under contract, and Joe Maddon‘s longtime right-hand man, Dave Martinez, was at the helm. Martinez even brought camels to Spring Training to signify getting over the hump.
After years of October heartbreak, 2018 was finally going to be the Nats’ year.
The Nats got off to a hot start, sweeping the Cincinnati Reds to begin the season. Things quickly began crashing down during the Nats’ home opener, though, as they were embarrassed by the New York Mets. The home opener appeared to be an aberration at the time, but it was frustratingly similar to the remainder of the season.
In a completely unforeseen series of events, the Nats ended up selling at the trade deadline. Instead of gearing up for the postseason at the trade deadline, as the Nats typically do, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Matt Adams, and Shawn Kelley were all dealt.
When all was said and done, the Nats finished 82-80, eight games behind the division-champion Atlanta Braves. After two consecutive division titles under the leadership of Dusty Baker, the Nats watched from home in October.
Now, the Nats are entering perhaps their most uncertain offseason in franchise history. They are tasked with determining how to return to the postseason, while Harper is also set to hit free agency for the first time in his career. For better or worse, the Nats’ 2019 season will likely be vastly different from 2018.
What went right?
While 2018 was undeniably a disappointing season for the Washington Nationals, there were several promising developments.
When discussing the Nats’ 2018 season, Juan Soto has to be one of the first names mentioned. The 19-year-old began the season in Low-A ball, and finished the year as a household name. Widely regarded as the best teenage hitter ever, Soto slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 homers and 70 RBI in 116 major league games.
If it weren’t for Braves’ phenom Ronald Acuna, Soto would be a lock for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Regardless of who takes home the honor, both players have tremendous futures.
On the mound, Max Scherzer continued to defy Father Time. Now 34, Scherzer has reached the phase of his career where he should theoretically begin to decline. However, after winning two consecutive Cy Young Awards, the Nats’ ace will likely be a finalist once again.
Scherzer eclipsed the 200-inning mark for his sixth consecutive season, while also posting his second-best ERA and reaching 300 strikeouts for the first time in his career. It remains to be seen how long he can perform at this level, but his $210 million megadeal has proven to be a bargain thus far.
Scherzer, Harper, and Sean Doolittle continued their outstanding play in 2018, representing the Nats in the All-Star Game at Nationals Park.
Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Matt Grace, Wander Suero, and Greg Holland all also deserve recognition. Eaton had a nice bounce-back season after missing most of 2017; Rendon remained an under-the-radar superstar; Turner played in all 162 games, while continuing to establish himself as one of the best shortstops in the game; and Grace, Suero, and Holland all broke onto the scene with impressive seasons out of the bullpen.
What went wrong?
After leading the Washington Nationals to the postseason in each of his first two seasons at the helm, Dusty Baker was let go in favor of rookie manager Dave Martinez. The Nats experienced the normal growing pains that come with a rookie manager, which was partially responsible for the disappointing season.
Martinez’s decisions were frequently questioned, especially those regarding lineup construction and bullpen management. For much of the season, the Nats seldom went more than two or three games with the same lineup, which appeared to hinder their ability to get into a rhythm. Numerous relievers, including Madson, Kintzler, Justin Miller, and Sammy Solis, were misused, leading to ineffectiveness and injury in some cases.
Pitching coach Derek Lilliquist also deserves some blame for the pitching woes. After two years with Mike Maddux leading the pitching staff, Lilliquist was a substantial downgrade. He assisted Martinez in making nonsensical pitching decisions, while not coaching pitchers often enough.
Lilliquist’s hands-off approach forced Kintzler to help Tanner Roark return to form and Scherzer to help Kelvin Herrera figure out his mechanics. It is not a coincidence that Gonzalez had a career year in 2017 while working with Maddux before struggling in 2018 with Lilliquist. After being dealt to Milwaukee, Gonzalez improved under the tutelage of Derek Johnson.
While many of Martinez’s decisions were questioned, he did not have much to work with at times. Injuries played a significant role in the Nats’ disappointing season, with several key players spending a large chunk of time on the disabled list.
Eaton, Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Rendon, Doolittle, Herrera, Stephen Strasburg, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Wieters, Howie Kendrick, and Joe Ross, among others, missed time, leaving Martinez without many options. Add in the midseason trades, and the Nats were fielding a minor league roster at times.
Looking ahead at the 2019 position players
Many of the Washington Nationals’ offseason decisions revolve around what happens with Bryce Harper, but they are prepared for life with or without him. Many would even argue that the Nats are better off without him.
Without Harper, the Nats’ outfield would likely be comprised of Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Adam Eaton. Although this outfield group does not include a flashy superstar, it has the potential to be one of the best trios in the league while costing less than $10 million total.
If the Nats let Harper walk, they will have plenty of money to address their more pressing needs, such as the starting rotation, bullpen, catcher, and second base. Until the Harper situation works itself out, the Nats’ offseason approach will remain unclear.
As things currently stand, the Nats’ position players are a lot clearer than their pitching staff. If Harper returns, he will likely play right field with Robles in center, Soto in left, and Eaton on the trade block. If Harper departs, Eaton will presumably take his place.
In the infield, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon will man the corners, with Trea Turner at shortstop. Second base, on the other hand, remains unclear.
Wilmer Difo and Adrian Sanchez split time at second after the Murphy trade, but the Nats could stand to acquire a new starter. Top prospect Carter Kieboom is being groomed to take over second base duties, but he is not quite ready. Some potential targets include Murphy, Brian Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez, and Scooter Gennett. Howie Kendrick is also worth keeping in mind, as he has one year left on his deal with the Nats, but he is 35 and coming off of a ruptured Achilles.
Like second base, the Nats will also be in the market for a starting catcher. Matt Wieters filled the role over the last two seasons, but he is now a free agent. Spencer Kieboom impressed down the stretch in 2018, but he projects better as a backup. A few potential targets include Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, and Jonathan Lucroy.
Looking ahead at the 2019 pitching staff
Historically, the Washington Nationals have been built on stellar pitching. That was not the case in 2018, which played a role in their disappointing season.
Max Scherzer produced yet another Cy Young-caliber season, but he did not receive much help from his fellow starters. Stephen Strasburg missed a significant chunk of the year with various injuries and experienced diminished velocity late in the season. If the Nats are going to improve in 2019, they need more from him.
Tanner Roark has been the definition of consistency over the years, but he had an erratic season. He struggled out of the gate, returned to form after the All-Star Break, and struggled to end the year. 2019 is a contract year for Roark, and a bounce-back campaign would be in the best interest of everyone involved.
After Roark, the rotation is a bit gloomy. Joe Ross will likely get a shot to start, but he threw just 16 innings in three starts down the stretch after returning from Tommy John Surgery. He is a big part of the Nats’ future plans, so look for them to play it safe with the 25-year-old righty.
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Jeremy Hellickson was solid when healthy for the Nats in 2018, but he is now a free agent. He will probably be relatively inexpensive, but he should be more of a backup plan. Of the Nats’ in-house candidates, Erick Fedde, Jefry Rodriguez, and Austin Voth may get an opportunity to compete for a chance to replace Hellickson in the rotation. A few potential targets include Patrick Corbin, Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Keuchel, and Sonny Gray.
Sean Doolittle is one of the best closers in baseball and highlights the Nats’ relief corps, but he could use some help in the back-end of the bullpen. The Nats traded for Kyle Barraclough shortly after the season ended, which helps, but another late-inning reliever would be nice.
Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera were both mid-season acquisitions in 2018, but they are both currently free agents. If the Nats could re-sign one of the two, it would do wonders for the setup crew.
Of the Nats’ in-house options, Doolittle, Barraclough, Matt Grace, Wander Suero, Koda Glover, and Justin Miller should be just about guaranteed a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. Meanwhile, Tim Collins, Sammy Solis, Jimmy Cordero, and Trevor Gott should get an opportunity to compete for a spot. A few potential relief targets include Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Tony Sipp, Joe Kelly, and Tony Watson.
Next. Nats may be better off without Bryce Harper. dark
Despite their underwhelming 2018 season, the Washington Nationals are in a prime position to return to contention in 2019. However, in order to do so, they must learn from their mistakes and address them this offseason.