2018 Pirates: Acquiring Archer
After losing their fifth straight game on July 7, the Pirates were 40-48 and 12.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. It looked like they were on their way to another ho-hum 75-win season. Then they won 13 of their next 14 games and 16 of 20. By the July 31 trade deadline, they were 56-52, six games back in the division and three back in the wild card race.
That hot streak prompted the Pirates to do something they hadn’t done during their three-year run of playoff season from 2013-2015. They made a significant in-season trade to bolster the team for the stretch run. In fact, they made two trades. The side dish was a deal with the Rangers for reliever Keone Kela, who proved to be a good addition to the bullpen (2.93 ERA in 15.3 innings).
The main dish was Chris Archer. To get Archer, the Pirates surrendered pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows. They later added minor leaguer Shane Baz as the player to be named later. It was a significant price to pay.
Glasnow was on multiple top prospect lists each year from 2014 to 2017, reaching as high as ninth on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 prior to the 2017 season. Meadows had also appeared on multiple top-100 lists, including a top ranking of sixth on the Baseball America top-100 prior to the 2017 season. Baz was 67th on the MLB Pipeline list prior to this season. These were good, young prospects that fans in Pittsburgh had been hearing about for a while. To see them traded away was surprising, to say the least.
Archer is a talented pitcher, no question, but his best seasons were from 2013 to 2015. He had a 3.26 ERA in 89 starts during those three seasons and his 3.36 FIP suggests it wasn’t a fluke. He had a good strikeout rate, didn’t walk too many batters and did a good job of suppressing home runs.
He still has strong strikeout and walk rates, but he’s allowed too many home runs over the last three years and his ERA has gone up as a result. Since the start of the 2016 season, Archer has a 4.12 ERA in 550.7 innings, although his FIP is just 3.64. After the trade this season, Archer had a 4.30 ERA in 52.3 innings with the Pirates. Fangraphs credited him with 0.7 WAR.
Meanwhile, in Tampa Bay, Glasnow had a 4.20 ERA (4.38 FIP) in 55.7 innings and was worth 0.5 WAR. Meadows didn’t get much playing time with the Rays. Both project to be regulars in the major leagues and both will be under team control for many years to come. You can’t help but wonder if the Pirates would like a do-over on this deal.
If you feel Archer can get back to the pitcher he was from 2013-2015 then the Archer trade can be put in the “what went right” column. If you think it was a mistake to trade two good, young players for an aging pitcher who has been disappointing in the last three years, you could put the deal in the “what went wrong” column.