Phillies: Traditional vs. analytical tug-of-war in MLB

MILWAUKEE, WI - AUGUST 15: Chase Utley
MILWAUKEE, WI - AUGUST 15: Chase Utley
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Kratz celebrates a double during Game Three of the NLDS. Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images.
Kratz celebrates a double during Game Three of the NLDS. Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. /

On the Phillies and in the MLB, neither winning the National League pennant nor losing the NL East changes the equation for the faithful who long for the days supposedly slipping away.

Old versus new:

Many fans perceive the Philadelphia Phillies as embracing this newfangled approach to on-field decision-making, but they aren’t leading. No, they’re following! Like other franchises, the red pinstripes examine pennant-capturing success and copy those methods: That is nothing new.

IN OTHER WORDS      “Creating success is a tug-of-war between your mind and your heart, your fears and your dreams. If your fears win, you lose.” – Robert G. Allen

Baseball is a game shrouded by the obvious. To its junkies, though, it features players competing in a contest, but this business like many others also calls them employees. Unscripted entertainment?

Although many supporters prefer to believe the sport doesn’t change, baseball frequently makes modifications. Each club annually crunches the numbers and adds some moves from successful teams in charting their direction. Overall, baseball adjusts for parity and fairness.

If you’ve heard the “hit it through the box” expression, only the phrase had remained beginning in 1893 because the MLB had replaced the pitcher’s box with a slab on a mound. Without rules, the hill size varied to suit the starter’s preference until 1904. That stated, the Phils first season was in 1883.

According to records in Baseball Almanac, when the sport hit a snag, they eventually resolved it with a new rule. Today, baseball has concentrated their energy on excitement and more organizations with a playoff opportunity.

As for clubs, one example is former Phils manager Gene Mauch popularizing the double switch. Yes, no edge is too small. Of course, Tony La Russa is the former skipper you can thank for the pitcher batting eighth, and it took a long time prior to this new managerial breed trying it.

Copying successful franchises is the norm. Whether the champions utilized their farm system or developed their hurlers, other teams then gravitate toward those methods. Lately, the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Dodgers have piled up victories and imitators.

Roberts answers questions prior to Game Five of the World Series, and he’ll face more this offseason regarding his Fall Classic decisions. Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images.
Roberts answers questions prior to Game Five of the World Series, and he’ll face more this offseason regarding his Fall Classic decisions. Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

 Game-changing moves:             

While the purists kick up a storm every time MLB executives push for something new, others only consider the differences in adjustments like instant replay or a multi-tiered postseason. But those decision-makers instituted the Rule 4 Draft and the Luxury Tax with its periodic penalty increases. Parity!

Like most professional sports, baseball might have a sweet spot numerically to balance pitchers and hitters regarding average runs scored. A few summers back, an article described how execs annually monitor this to ensure excitement and fairness.

While the majors present the playoffs as making more clubs relevant for postseason competition, they also are a barrier to a 21st-century dynasty. But many fans label this as an excuse for management’s perceived incompetence. Basically, supporters don’t want to hear the “wait ’til next year” expression.

Regarding the wild card, owners were unhappy because a hot September team could roll to the World Series. In fact, that frequency created a need for an obstacle to protect divisional champions from this threat. To illustrate, the red pinstripes with four aces and 102 victories lost to a wild-card team.

Unsurprisingly, a .300 hitter fails 70 percent of the time, and a club should, therefore, struggle with men on base in a large majority of their attempts. But the faithful instead blame the front office and the skipper to the point of recommending a dismissal.

At what point, do the statistics equal valid reasoning instead of scapegoating? Basically, baseball fans love stats, but it’s mostly selective or neglective. And, no, I don’t expect anyone to change their conclusions because that would be wishful thinking.

Many fans complained when the Phillies hired him. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images.
Many fans complained when the Phillies hired him. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

Head versus heart:         

When I pored over fans’ comments, they were heavy with disappointment and unhappiness. They demanded that the GM and the manager have to go, and the constant lineup changes were the reason for the organization’s failure at the MLB level. Sound familiar?

According to a thread on 4chan.org, the “fire this man now” theme screamed in post after post. But if your guess is Gabe Kapler and the hometown nine, you’d be wrong. No, the venom was for Dave Roberts of the Dodgers because consecutive NL pennants are unacceptable.

A major point of contention was not having a set lineup due to the execs dictating the batting order with analytics. In other words, the Los Angeles faithful believe their franchise needs to do things the traditional way. As for NL runs, the Dodgers were first with 804.

Different MLB lineups:

  • Most: Dodgers with 155.
  • Least: Braves with 105.
  • NL: Dodgers with 155 (Phillies with 138 for 7th).
  • AL: Blue Jays with 154.
  • East: Blue Jays with 154 (Phillies with 138 for 5th).
  • MLB: Dodgers with 155 (Phillies with 138 for 15th).

Many locals are positive a set batting order would replace the analytical experiment of having different lineups as if the red pinstripes alone did this. However, they are following the current trend, and other teams are as well.

Keep in mind, Dodgers players were against hiring Kapler because the front office would be too close to the dugout. But those stars now believe Roberts received his marching orders from the higher-ups. Meanwhile, switching the name Roberts in the linked thread with Kapler would be mostly seamless.

Utley thanks the faithful for their appreciation of his Phillies career. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.
Utley thanks the faithful for their appreciation of his Phillies career. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Happy medium:

When you listen to Sabermetrics devotees, they believe everything is in the numbers, and chemistry like other intangibles is meaningless. In fact, some even rely on one or two specific stats. Total predictability?

Regarding traditionalists, they want old-fashioned baseball and feel nerds are ruining their game. They bemoan the defeats when their club has a home-run drought and are certain some losses would be victories if they played some small ball. An ignored solution?

According to Chase Utley and Erik Kratz in a piece by Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, they praised the data-oriented approach of the Los Angeles and the Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, other players either relied on defensive-alignment cards or stated that analytics is hurting baseball.

As for the red pinstripes, Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera had noticeable decreases in their averages and increases in homers and RBIs. In other words, taking pitches might dampen aggressiveness and lower their averages, while the launch angle could produce more long balls and RBIs. So, one size may not fit all.

Phillies stats:

  • Hernandez in 2017: .294, 9 HR and 34 RBI.
  • Hernandez in 2018: .253, 15 HR and 60 RBI.
  • Herrera in 2017: .281, 14 HR and 56 RBI.
  • Herrera in 2018: .255, 22 HR and 71 RBI.

When they’re winning, no one squawks about small ball. That stated, Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn and Hernandez pilfered bags, bunted, and ran the bases; and the Phils also showed more life in their last two victories. Perhaps, the combination of speed, old-fashioned skills and analytics could be the next step. An edge?

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