SAN FRANCISCO, CA - AUGUST 25: The San Francisco Giants mascot Lou Seal hugs the 2010 World Series trophy before the game against the Atlanta Braves at AT&T Park on August 25, 2012 in San Francisco, California. The Atlanta Braves defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-3. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – AUGUST 11: Former San Francisco Giants players Willie Mayys (left) and Willie MccCovey look on during a ceremony to retire Barry Bond’s number 25 jersey at AT&T Park on August 11, 2018 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Pool via Getty Images) /
The San Francisco Giants are in a very important offseason for the franchise. We explore three options for how the team could address the upcoming season.
After bringing in a number of veterans over the 2017/2018 offseason, the San Francisco Giants went from 64 wins to 73 wins, but that put the team 18 1/2 games behind the division winner and 17 1/2 games out of the 2nd Wild Card. As they face a major crossroads in their organization, we examine where the team could head with the 2018/2019 offseason.
This is part of a 3-part series on what the San Francisco Giants could do with a new general manager in place this offseason. After two seasons far out of playoff competition, the Giants are ready for a change, and we will address three different routes the team could go.
Previously, we looked at the idea of the Giants going “all-in” on the 2019 season. We then looked at a moderated approach of clearing salary in 2019 to compete in 2020 and beyond. Today, we will address the idea of the San Francisco Giants making the decision that many outsiders feel is needed (and why many believe a new GM is being brought in) – a blow-it-up rebuild.
We’ll first look at the team’s contract situation, both short-term and long-term, then explore those players who will be free agents this offseason. Last we’ll address the arbitration-eligible players and their current projections.
After reviewing all of those players, we’ll have a pretty good idea where the San Francisco Giants sit for 2019 in salary obligations. At that point, we can begin to address moves to build a team for the major leagues in 2019 while tearing down harmful long-term obligations and building up the currently-putrid farm system.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JULY 29: Pablo Sanndoval #48 of the San Francisco Giants bats against the Milwaukee Brewers in the bottom of the fifth inning at AT&T Park on July 29, 2018 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
Current Roster
Before deciding which players to target, we need to address the players that are currently on the roster and whether they’ll remain on the roster in 2019.
Options – $12.6 million total Madison Bumgarner, P, $12 million picked up Pablo Sandoval, IF, league minimum option picked up
Giants fans will hate this, but MadBum will be the key of this rebuild and could either turn the team around quickly or allow the team to incredibly stock the farm system depending on the return they choose to get.
Some very ugly deals here for sure, especially when you look at the length beyond just 2019 of all of these deals. Moving all of them, or even most of them, will be very difficult.
All five arbitration players are certainly worthy of their contracts, and it would be a wise investment on the part of the Giants to sign all five as each could draw significant trade interest or be a solid piece for a rebuilding club.
Rodriguez and Hanson were both huge surprises for the San Francisco Giants in 2018, and both will have significant roles on the team in 2019.
With all of these players currently listed, the estimated payroll is ~$154 million. That gives us an idea of where to go from here.
The San Francisco Giants rebuilding needs/plans
The San Francisco Giants had to make a number of moves in-season this year that traded away valuable bench and bullpen pieces just to stay under the luxury tax threshold if they wanted to add any players. To field a team in 2019-2021, they would be facing the same issues. This is largely due to significant deals that were signed in a six-month time period from November of 2015 to April of 2016 that totaled $365 million of long-term commitments.
The players that those commitments were made to now face aging decline, issues with injury, and/or falling out with the team. That makes multiple players priority to move and others more of a luxury. There are some very valuable pieces the Giants do have, though, that they could attach a number of these contracts to.
The luxury tax does raise to $206 million in 2019, and many have said that this gives the San Francisco Giants the room to keep their players, but the next two seasons see barely any movement, with a tax of $208 million in 2020 and $210 million in 2021, which would not allow for much in the way of arbitration raises for young players or new free agent signings.
The Giants also are currently tagged with one of the three worst farm systems in the game. While there can be some discussion which system is the absolute worst, the Giants, Cubs, and Mariners are the consensus bottom 3, and many would place the Giants at the bottom of that barrel. In order to be able to keep costs down, a quality farm system is absolutely vital.
Trading away significant salaries will require delicate moving and negotiating in order to maximize the return, possibly investing some 2019 contract money in moving some of the contracts off of the books. That will free up the team to address the long-term health of the club starting next offseason.
So what do those moves look like?
San Francisco Giants moves to blow it up
As fair warning to San Francisco Giants fans – these trades will hurt. They will not be fun, but as fans from teams like the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, and, most recently, Atlanta Braves can tell you, the pain is worth it in the end when you start to win and see nothing but years of winning to come!
Trade #1: San Francisco Giants send 1B Brandon Belt and $6.6 million to the Los Angeles Angels for 2B Jahmai Jones and RHP Luis Madero The Angels are a team in need of left-handed power. Heck, they’re in need of left-handed anything in their lineup. With Luis Valbuena a free agent and Shohei Ohtani recovering from Tommy John surgery, the only lefty hitter in the entire lineup is Kole Calhoun. Belt would fill a need, and with Ohtani being out for some time, Belt and Albert Pujols would pair well in the lineup together. As Pujols and Belt both have their bouts with injury issues, having both on board could be a blessing in disguise for the Angels and allow for consistent power in their lineup.
Jones has really taken well to second base and is an elite athlete. He’s hitting well in the AFL right now, and there’s a chance he is up late in 2019 and certainly for a September call-up. Madero is a pitcher that I’m a very big fan of with a loose arm that generates low-90s velocity easily with good movement and has good presence on the mound.
Trade #2: San Francisco Giants trade 2B Joe Panik, LHRP Tony Watson, SP Johnny Cueto, and $11.83 million to the Minnesota Twins for LHP Stephen Gonsalves, IF Jose Miranda, RHP Luke Bard, and OF LaMonte Wade This would be a lot of moving pieces, but it would allow the Giants to dump a big contract while only covering the buyout of Cueto’s 2022 option and the cash to bring his 2019 salary (while he’s out recovering from Tommy John) to $15 million. Watson is an upper Midwest native who would be desirable to the Twins, and with a hole at 2B, Panik would certainly appeal. Gonsalves and Bard would be able to break camp with the big league club, and Wade would very feasibly be part of the 2019 club at some point as he’s near-ready as well.
Trade #3: San Francisco Giants trade LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Jeff Samardzija, and $9.6 million to the Milwaukee Brewers for OF Domingo Santana, RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Trey Supak, IF Mauricio Dubon This is a big deal for the Brewers, but they have the depth to make this move. One change that could happen would possibly be replacing both of the minor league players for one “elite” guy like Keston Hiura or swapping in someone like Hiura for Woodruff or Santana. The money involved makes Samardzija a $15 million/year gamble for the Brewers, but in reward for getting an ace for their 2019 playoff run.
Trade #4: San Francisco Giants trade C Buster Posey and LHP Will Smith to the Atlanta Braves for LHP Kolby Allard, LHP Jesse Biddle, RHP Chad Sobotka, IF Rio Ruiz, and C Alex Jackson The Braves need a catcher, Posey is a Georgia native, and the Braves have a solid option to allow Posey to ease back into service in 2019 after hip surgery this season. Smith is a very valuable piece and would help bring up the overall package, though likely keeping the package pitching-focused and near-majors focused both squads as all three pitchers and Ruiz should break camp with the Giants.
Trade #5: San Francisco Giants trade SS Brandon Crawford and RHP Sam Dyson to Washington Nationals for RHP Austen Williams, IF Wilmer Difo, IF Yasel Antuna The Washington Nationals will be likely losing Bryce Harper in 2019, and they will be likely spreading around the $35+ million that he would be paid in 2019 to multiple positions. With Trea Turner coming into his own offensively, moving him to a more comfortable defensive position with an elite shortstop defender would help them, and the Nats would absolutely be looking for bullpen depth. With Howie Kendrick returning, Difo’s role will not be as prominent in Washington, so he may move easier for the Nats. Williams found himself really picking up steam with a move to the bullpen. Antuna is going to be a gem for the Giants as a very talented young infield prospect.
Trade #6: San Francisco Giants trade RHP Mark Melancon and RHP Hunter Strickland to the Boston Red Sox for C Blake Swihart and LHP Jhonathan Diaz The Red Sox will be looking to bolster their bullpen, and the Giants could move two veteran arms with varying levels of interest for the team in what may seem like a small deal, but getting in Swihart and a lottery ticket in Diaz would be good return for a guy in Strickland that the team was not a fan of in the first place.
With the money saved in these deals, a few short-term deals would be appropriate to fill the roster from the free agent market.
The Giants would need to fill a spot alongside Swihart at catcher, likely bring in a utility infielder or two, a veteran starter, and a bullpen arm or two.
These are the deals made in the free agent market:
Sign Kurt Suzuki to 2-year/$15 million contract to bridge to top draft pick Joey Bart likely taking over during the 2020 season.
Sign Matt Adams to a 1-year/$7 million contract with a $12 million option for 2020.
Sign Jose Iglesias to a 2-year/$16 million contract
Sign Ervin Santana to a 1-year/$9 million contract with incentives based on innings to $15 million
Sign David Robertson to a 2-year/$24 million contract with incentives
Sign Justin Wilson to a 2-year/$15 million contract
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – SEPTEMBER 25: Evan Lonngoria #10 of the San Francisco Giants reacts to field a ground ball off the bat of Franmil Reyes #32 of the San Diego Padres in the top of the six inning at AT&T Park on September 25, 2018 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
Potential San Francisco Giants “blown up” 2019 roster
With all of these moves, the final roster of the 2019 San Francisco Giants would look something like this:
CL – David Robertson RP – Justin Wilson, Chad Sobotka, Reyes Moronta, Jesse Biddle, Austen Williams, Ty Blach, (Ray Black/Luke Bard)
Most likely in the pitching staff, you’d have 1 of the 3 in the final competition for the starting spot get a rotation spot, with the other two competing against Blach for a long relief role. The team could choose to keep two long relievers if Allard is the option, keeping Blach from the left side and one of Stratton or Woodruff from the right, or they may choose just one long man and one reliever, and Black or Bard would be the top choices there, most likely.
Local products abound on this roster as California natives are up and down the lineup and pitching rotation. His local appeal is one big reason that the team would hold onto Evan Longoria, along with the difficulty of trading his extended contract, even though it’s not ever over $20 million in one season.
This move would also give the Giants a number of pieces that could be very desirable at the trade deadline. A guy like Suzuki, Adams, Iglesias, Santana, Robertson, or Wilson could move well to a contender to help add to the rebuild.
Next. Giants 2018 minor league awards. dark
That is the finale of a three-part series for the 2019 San Francisco Giants possible rosters. What do you think of this potential rebuild? Were the pieces acquired enough? Will the Giants be able to use the financial freedom created to return to competition without ripping apart their farm system again? Comment below!
