Seattle Mariners 2018 season review

2018 Mariners: One-Run Magic

After coming into the season looking like a .500-ish team, the Mariners exceeded all expectations in the first half. They were 16-11 in March/April, 18-11 in May and 19-9 in June. They had a terrific stretch from May 18 through July 3 when they won 31 of 43 games. That’s a .721 winning percentage over a little more than one-quarter of the season.

On July 5, after their ninth win in their last 10 games, the Mariners were 56-32 and just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL West. They were only a half-game behind the Yankees for the first wild card spot and 6.5 games ahead of the A’s for the second wild card spot. Mariner fans were loving every minute of this incredible season.

As good as the season was going, there were some warning signs. The Mariners had a +25 run-differential, which didn’t align with their 56-32 record. With 385 runs scored and 360 runs allowed, the Mariners had played more like a 47-41 team than a 56-32 team. Run-differential is generally better at evaluating the caliber of a team than the team’s actual win-loss record.

A big part of the nine-game gap between the Mariners’ actual record and expected record was their success in one-run games. They were 26-11 in such games through July 5. If the one-run games magic disappeared, the Mariners would come crashing back down to earth. No amount of clubhouse chemistry or Sodo Mojo would prevent it.

After July 5, the Mariners went 33-41 to finish third in the AL West, 14 games behind the Astros and eight games behind the A’s for the second wild card spot. After going 26-11 in one-run games through July 5, they went 10-10 over the last few months of the season. While their actual record was 89-73, their expected record, based on their run-differential, was 77-85.

Despite the disappointing second half, there were some good things that happened with the Mariners this year. Let’s take a look.