With the top three players in each MLB awards category being announced by the BBWAA on Monday, here are my picks for Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year.
The BBWAA will announce the top three finishers for 2018 MLB awards on Monday, November 5. One week later, the winners of the awards will be announced, beginning with the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Awards on Monday, November 12. The Manager of the Year Awards will follow on Tuesday, the Cy Young Awards on Wednesday and award week will culminate with the announcement of the MVP Award winners for each league on Thursday, November 15.
While the BBWAA votes for the official award winners, members of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) hold their own vote with the same guidelines. The IBWAA includes baseball insiders such as Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and Jon Heyman, along with writers at many of your favorite online sites, including Call to the Pen.
The IBWAA was created in 2009 as a digital alternative to the BBWAA. The organization exists to promote online baseball media. Whereas at one time baseball fans generally read about baseball in local newspapers, they now regularly get their baseball news and analysis online. The IBWAA allows online baseball writers an opportunity to come together as a group and vote for the end-of-season awards.
Along with the awards mentioned above, the IBWAA includes a category for the Rollie Fingers American League Relief Pitcher of the Year and the Hoyt Wilhelm National League Relief Pitcher of the Year. In December, IBWAA writers vote on players for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
With the top three finishers being announced on Monday, I am revealing part of my IBWAA ballot and my rationale behind the way I voted. I’ll admit upfront, I’m a numbers guy. I believe the different versions of Wins Above Replacement (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference; and WARP, from Baseball Prospectus) generally do a good job of measuring the quality of a player.
That’s not to say they’re perfect. They each have slightly different ways they deal with different aspects of a player’s game, but I think they generally do a good job at identifying the top players in baseball. For my ballot, I used the aforementioned three versions of WAR(P).
I also used Wins Above Average and Win Probability Added, both from Baseball-Reference. Wins Above Average uses an average player as the baseline, rather than a replacement-level player. Win Probability Added is determined by how much that player changed the probability that his team would win. Let’s start with the Rookie of the Year Award.