MLB Awards: My IBWAA ballot (part 1)

My Ballot: Rookie of the Year

American League
1.    SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

2.    2B Joey Wendle, Tampa Bay Rays

3.    INF Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

I’m sure Yankees fans are wondering where Miguel Andujar is. After all, he hit .297/.328/.527, with 83 runs, 27 home runs, and 92 RBI. He also led AL rookies in games played and plate appearances. He was terrific . . . offensively. His defense was not good. Actually, not good doesn’t begin to describe how poorly Andujar rated on defense. It was enough to drop him to fourth on my ballot. I fully expect him to be first or second in BBWAA voting.

My choice for AL Rookie of the Year is Shohei Ohtani. He hit .285/.361/.564, which produced a 152 wRC+. That means he was 52 percent above average on offense after league and ballpark effects were accounted for. He would have finished fifth in the AL among all hitters in wRC+ if he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Only Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Alex Bregman were better. Right behind him was Jose Ramirez.

Oh, by the way, Ohtani also started 10 games with a 3.31 ERA (3.57 FIP) in 51.7 innings. Among AL starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, he ranked seventh in strikeout rate, between Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. As a rookie, Ohtani hit in the range of Alex Bregman and Jose Ramirez and struck out batters like Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. Put it all together and he’s the AL Rookie of the Year.

My second and third choices, Joey Wendle and Gleyber Torres, were both flexible players who could play multiple positions. Wendle primarily played second base, but also started games at shortstop, third base, and left field. Torres played mostly second base also, with another 15 starts at shortstop. Torres was a better hitter; Wendle was a better fielder and base runner and played 16 more games. That was enough for me to put him second on my ballot.

National League
1.    OF Ronald Acuńa, Jr., Atlanta Braves

2.    OF Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

3.    SP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

I expect Acuńa and Soto to be the top two NL rookies on the BBWAA ballot. They both had impressive seasons despite playing just 111 and 116 games, respectively. It will be fun to see what they can do in a full season next year. Buehler made the third spot on my ballot, but it was a tough race between him, Harrison Bader and Brian Anderson.

When it comes to Acuńa or Soto, pick your poison. Acuńa hit for more power (26 HR and .552 SLG versus 22 HR and .517 SLG) and stole more bases (16 SB versus 5 SB), but Soto had a significant advantage in on-base percentage (.406 to .366). After adjusting for league and ballpark, Soto had a slight advantage in wRC+, at 146 to 143 for Acuńa. Ultimately, Acuńa’s slight edge in base running and defense pushed him to the top. Soto still had a terrific season, though.

For me, Buehler was the best rookie pitcher in the NL, with a 2.62 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 137.3 innings. He was also good enough on the mound to give him the edge over Bader and Anderson, who both had strong rookie seasons. Bader was terrific with the glove. He tied with Ender Inciarte in Outs Above Average for all MLB outfielders. Anderson played in relative anonymity with the Miami Marlins, but provided above average production while splitting time between third base and right field.

My Ballot: Manager of the Year

American League
1.    Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics

2.    Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays

3.    Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox

When it comes to voting for the Manager of the Year, there are two main paths to go down. You could vote for a team that did surprisingly well. This year, the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays fell into that category. Or you could vote for the manager of a team that finished with one of the best records in the league, like Alex Cora of the Boston Red Sox or A.J. Hinch of the Houston Astros.

I went with a little of both. My top choice is Bob Melvin because he guided a low payroll team that was expected to win around 75 games and managed them to a 97-win season and a wild card spot. It’s impossible to know just how much difference a manager makes, really, so this award is a bit of a guessing game. Knowing what we know, I chose Melvin.

The A’s used 15 different starting pitchers this year, including 13 different pitchers who started five or more games. None of them finished with 2 WAR (Fangraphs), which is league average. The A’s starting pitchers were 20th in MLB in WAR. With a ragtag starting rotation, they depending heavily on their bullpen to win games and Melvin appeared to handle it well. The A’s bullpen was fifth in baseball in WAR, with closer Blake Treinen arguably being the best reliever in baseball.

House That Hank Built

The A’s offense had one big power source (Khris Davis) and four other players who hit 23 or more home runs. They didn’t waste outs on the bases (last in MLB with 56 steal attempts) or with sacrifice bunts (second-to-last in MLB with seven). They were in the bottom fifth of the league in number of intentional walks issued. These are things I believe are smart, so Melvin is my man.

Kevin Cash would be a fine choice also. The Rays were expected to win between 75 and 80 games and they won 90. They also embraced the “Opener” or “Initial Out Getter.” Ryne Stanek pitched 40 innings in his 29 starts. Diego Castillo pitched 17 innings in his 11 starts. We don’t know yet how effective the “Opener” strategy was or will be (small sample size of one season), but the Rays had a bottom-dollar payroll and their pitching staff finished sixth in baseball in Fangraphs WAR.

All Alex Cora did as a rookie manager was guide the Red Sox to a franchise-record 108 wins. I’m sure he’ll get plenty of votes from other members of the IBWAA and in the official balloting of the BBWAA. The postseason doesn’t count for awards voting, but Cora led the Red Sox through the ALDS, ALCS, and World Series in commanding fashion, as the team went 11-3.

National League
1.    Brian Snitker, Atlanta Braves

2.    Craig Counsell, Milwaukee Brewers

3.    Bud Black, Colorado Rockies

In the National League, I went with the manager of the surprising Atlanta Braves, a team that was expected to win 70-something games and ended up winning 90. Brian Snitker took over as Braves manager during the 2016 season and has been at the helm as the team graduated good young players from their minor league system. Many more prospects are on the way, so it should be interesting to watch how Snitker incorporates them into the current roster.

In the preseason, the Braves were generally expected to finish behind the Nationals, Mets and Phillies. Even the wild card was a distinct longshot. They arrived ahead of schedule, though, and look like they’ll be contenders well into the future with Snitker running the show.

The Brewers were expected to be in the mix for the wild card, but not likely to contend with the Cubs. Instead, with Craig Counsell’s guidance, they not only beat out the Cubs to win the NL Central, they finished with the most victories in the league. Counsell managed a bullpen that had three different pitchers finish with 12 or more saves. He adjusted bullpen roles when they needed to be adjusted. He also would have been a fine choice for NL Manager of the Year.

My number three guy is Bud Black of the Colorado Rockies. This year’s team had 91 wins, the second-most in franchise history. They closed out the regular season with nine wins in their last 10 games to catch the Dodgers atop the NL West, only to lose against them in a one-game playoff for the division title. Still, it was an exciting year for the boys in purple and black.