MLB Awards: My IBWAA ballot (part 1)

With the top three players in each MLB awards category being announced by the BBWAA on Monday, here are my picks for Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year.

The BBWAA will announce the top three finishers for 2018 MLB awards on Monday, November 5. One week later, the winners of the awards will be announced, beginning with the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Awards on Monday, November 12. The Manager of the Year Awards will follow on Tuesday, the Cy Young Awards on Wednesday and award week will culminate with the announcement of the MVP Award winners for each league on Thursday, November 15.

While the BBWAA votes for the official award winners, members of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) hold their own vote with the same guidelines. The IBWAA includes baseball insiders such as Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and Jon Heyman, along with writers at many of your favorite online sites, including Call to the Pen.

The IBWAA was created in 2009 as a digital alternative to the BBWAA. The organization exists to promote online baseball media. Whereas at one time baseball fans generally read about baseball in local newspapers, they now regularly get their baseball news and analysis online. The IBWAA allows online baseball writers an opportunity to come together as a group and vote for the end-of-season awards.

Along with the awards mentioned above, the IBWAA includes a category for the Rollie Fingers American League Relief Pitcher of the Year and the Hoyt Wilhelm National League Relief Pitcher of the Year. In December, IBWAA writers vote on players for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

With the top three finishers being announced on Monday, I am revealing part of my IBWAA ballot and my rationale behind the way I voted. I’ll admit upfront, I’m a numbers guy. I believe the different versions of Wins Above Replacement (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference; and WARP, from Baseball Prospectus) generally do a good job of measuring the quality of a player.

That’s not to say they’re perfect. They each have slightly different ways they deal with different aspects of a player’s game, but I think they generally do a good job at identifying the top players in baseball. For my ballot, I used the aforementioned three versions of WAR(P).

I also used Wins Above Average and Win Probability Added, both from Baseball-Reference. Wins Above Average uses an average player as the baseline, rather than a replacement-level player. Win Probability Added is determined by how much that player changed the probability that his team would win. Let’s start with the Rookie of the Year Award.

My Ballot: Rookie of the Year

American League
1.    SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

2.    2B Joey Wendle, Tampa Bay Rays

3.    INF Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

I’m sure Yankees fans are wondering where Miguel Andujar is. After all, he hit .297/.328/.527, with 83 runs, 27 home runs, and 92 RBI. He also led AL rookies in games played and plate appearances. He was terrific . . . offensively. His defense was not good. Actually, not good doesn’t begin to describe how poorly Andujar rated on defense. It was enough to drop him to fourth on my ballot. I fully expect him to be first or second in BBWAA voting.

My choice for AL Rookie of the Year is Shohei Ohtani. He hit .285/.361/.564, which produced a 152 wRC+. That means he was 52 percent above average on offense after league and ballpark effects were accounted for. He would have finished fifth in the AL among all hitters in wRC+ if he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Only Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Alex Bregman were better. Right behind him was Jose Ramirez.

Oh, by the way, Ohtani also started 10 games with a 3.31 ERA (3.57 FIP) in 51.7 innings. Among AL starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, he ranked seventh in strikeout rate, between Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. As a rookie, Ohtani hit in the range of Alex Bregman and Jose Ramirez and struck out batters like Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. Put it all together and he’s the AL Rookie of the Year.

My second and third choices, Joey Wendle and Gleyber Torres, were both flexible players who could play multiple positions. Wendle primarily played second base, but also started games at shortstop, third base, and left field. Torres played mostly second base also, with another 15 starts at shortstop. Torres was a better hitter; Wendle was a better fielder and base runner and played 16 more games. That was enough for me to put him second on my ballot.

National League
1.    OF Ronald Acuńa, Jr., Atlanta Braves

2.    OF Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

3.    SP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

I expect Acuńa and Soto to be the top two NL rookies on the BBWAA ballot. They both had impressive seasons despite playing just 111 and 116 games, respectively. It will be fun to see what they can do in a full season next year. Buehler made the third spot on my ballot, but it was a tough race between him, Harrison Bader and Brian Anderson.

When it comes to Acuńa or Soto, pick your poison. Acuńa hit for more power (26 HR and .552 SLG versus 22 HR and .517 SLG) and stole more bases (16 SB versus 5 SB), but Soto had a significant advantage in on-base percentage (.406 to .366). After adjusting for league and ballpark, Soto had a slight advantage in wRC+, at 146 to 143 for Acuńa. Ultimately, Acuńa’s slight edge in base running and defense pushed him to the top. Soto still had a terrific season, though.

For me, Buehler was the best rookie pitcher in the NL, with a 2.62 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 137.3 innings. He was also good enough on the mound to give him the edge over Bader and Anderson, who both had strong rookie seasons. Bader was terrific with the glove. He tied with Ender Inciarte in Outs Above Average for all MLB outfielders. Anderson played in relative anonymity with the Miami Marlins, but provided above average production while splitting time between third base and right field.