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MLB Awards: My IBWAA Ballot (part 2)

By Bobby Mueller

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with the World Series trophy after winning the 2018 World Series in game five of the 2018 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 28, 2018 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with the World Series trophy after winning the 2018 World Series in game five of the 2018 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 28, 2018 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
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ST PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 4: (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
ST PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 4: (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

My Ballot: AL Cy Young

1.    Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

2.    Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

3.    Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

4.    Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

5.    Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians

The BBWAA top 3 (not in order):

·      Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

·      Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

·      Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

We won’t know until next week which of the three BBWAA finalists will win the award. My pick is Blake Snell, but it was very close between Snell and Verlander. I also had Chris Sale third on my ballot. The BBWAA snuck Kluber in ahead of Sale, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sale in the fourth or fifth spot. For me, Snell and Verlander were on the top tier, with Sale one tier below, then Kluber, Bauer and Gerrit Cole.

When it comes to evaluating the quality of a pitcher, it’s difficult to parse what the pitcher is most responsible for and what his defense should be credited with. This can be seen by Blake Snell’s league-leading 1.89 ERA but not as impressive 2.95 FIP, 3.16 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA. Verlander had a higher ERA (2.52), but beat Snell in the other three metrics that attempt to strip out what a pitcher is most responsible for versus the combination of pitching and defense. There were other factors involved, but Snell’s actual runs allowed were important to me.

That being said, I wouldn’t object at all if Verlander takes the hardware. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him on top in BBWAA voting. He and Kluber had a clear advantage over the other top contenders in innings pitched. Kluber led the AL with 215 innings and Verlander was second with 214 innings. Snell (180.7), Bauer (175.3) and Sale (158) didn’t match them in quantity but had better ERAs.

One way to consider the difference between Snell and Verlander is to look at their innings pitched and runs allowed. Snell pitched 180.7 innings and allowed 41 runs. Verlander pitched 214 innings and allowed 63 runs. Had Snell allowed another 22 runs in 34.7 innings, he and Verlander would have finished with the same totals. Allowing 22 runs in 34.7 innings is a 5.71 RA/9. This discrepancy was enough for me to put Snell at the top of my ballot.

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