MLB Awards: My IBWAA Ballot (part 2)
With the top three players in each MLB Award category being announced by the BBWAA on Monday, here are my picks for Cy Young and MVP.
On Monday, the BBWAA announced the three finalists for the 2018 MLB Awards. While the BBWAA votes for the official award winners, members of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) hold their own vote with the same guidelines. The IBWAA includes baseball insiders such as Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and Jon Heyman, along with writers at many of your favorite online sites, including Call to the Pen.
The IBWAA was created in 2009 as a digital alternative to the BBWAA. The organization exists to promote online baseball media. Whereas at one time baseball fans generally read about baseball in local newspapers, they now regularly get their baseball news and analysis online. The IBWAA allows online baseball writers an opportunity to come together as a group and vote for the end-of-season awards.
Along with the awards mentioned above, the IBWAA includes a category for the Rollie Fingers American League Relief Pitcher of the Year and the Hoyt Wilhelm National League Relief Pitcher of the Year. In December, IBWAA writers vote on players for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
One week after Monday’s announcement by the BBWAA of the three finalists, the winners of the awards will be announced, beginning with the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award on Monday, November 12. The Manager of the Year Award will follow on Tuesday, the Cy Young Award on Wednesday and award week will culminate with the announcement of the MVP Award winners for each league on Thursday, November 15.
I previously wrote about my picks for Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. My top three for AL Rookie of the year, in order, were Shohei Ohtani, Joey Wendle and Gleyber Torres. In that previous article, I wrote that Miguel Andujar would likely be in the top three on the BBWAA ballot and this proved to be true. The BBWAA three finalists (not in order) were Andujar, Ohtani and Torres. My top three in the NL were the same as the BBWAA top three: Ronald Acuńa, Jr., Juan Soto and Walker Buehler.
My top three finishers for the AL and NL Manager of the Year Award were also the same as the BBWAA. In the American League, the three finalists are Kevin Cash, Alex Cora and Bob Melvin. In the National League, the finalists are Bud Black, Craig Counsell and Brian Snitker. While we wait until next week to learn the ultimate winners, here are my picks for the Cy Young and MVP of each league.
My Ballot: AL Cy Young
1. Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
3. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
4. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
5. Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
The BBWAA top 3 (not in order):
· Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
· Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
· Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
We won’t know until next week which of the three BBWAA finalists will win the award. My pick is Blake Snell, but it was very close between Snell and Verlander. I also had Chris Sale third on my ballot. The BBWAA snuck Kluber in ahead of Sale, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sale in the fourth or fifth spot. For me, Snell and Verlander were on the top tier, with Sale one tier below, then Kluber, Bauer and Gerrit Cole.
When it comes to evaluating the quality of a pitcher, it’s difficult to parse what the pitcher is most responsible for and what his defense should be credited with. This can be seen by Blake Snell’s league-leading 1.89 ERA but not as impressive 2.95 FIP, 3.16 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA. Verlander had a higher ERA (2.52), but beat Snell in the other three metrics that attempt to strip out what a pitcher is most responsible for versus the combination of pitching and defense. There were other factors involved, but Snell’s actual runs allowed were important to me.
That being said, I wouldn’t object at all if Verlander takes the hardware. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him on top in BBWAA voting. He and Kluber had a clear advantage over the other top contenders in innings pitched. Kluber led the AL with 215 innings and Verlander was second with 214 innings. Snell (180.7), Bauer (175.3) and Sale (158) didn’t match them in quantity but had better ERAs.
One way to consider the difference between Snell and Verlander is to look at their innings pitched and runs allowed. Snell pitched 180.7 innings and allowed 41 runs. Verlander pitched 214 innings and allowed 63 runs. Had Snell allowed another 22 runs in 34.7 innings, he and Verlander would have finished with the same totals. Allowing 22 runs in 34.7 innings is a 5.71 RA/9. This discrepancy was enough for me to put Snell at the top of my ballot.
My Ballot: NL Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
2. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
4. Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
5. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
The BBWAA top 3 (not in order):
· Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
· Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
· Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
We don’t yet know the order of the BBWAA’s top three NL starters in Cy Young voting, but the top three names are the same as mine. I can’t imagine anyone other than Jacob deGrom winning the award. Even though he only had 10 wins, his incredible 1.70 ERA in 217 innings makes him the top pitcher in the NL, and all of baseball, really. He also backed it up with a 1.99 FIP.
Jacob deGrom started 32 games. He pitched at least six innings in 29 of them and allowed one or zero runs in 18 of those 29 starts. In his third start of the year, April 10 against the Marlins, he allowed four earned runs. That would be the only time he allowed more than three earned runs all year. No other pitcher was as good as deGrom in 2018.
After deGrom on the top tier, I had Nola and Scherzer on a tier together. This one could have gone either way. I love the intensity of Max Scherzer, but ultimately put Nola ahead of him based on run prevention. He had a 2.37 ERA in 212.3 innings. Scherzer had a 2.53 ERA in 220.7 innings.
Scherzer had the edge in Baseball Prospectus’ WARP and the FIP-based version of Fangraphs WAR. Nola had the edge in Fangraphs’ RA-9 WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR. Nola also had a very slight edge in Win Probability Added. In what could have been a coin flip, I went with Nola.
Kyle Freeland and Patrick Corbin were fourth and fifth on my ballot. Pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field, Freeland had a 2.85 ERA in 202.3 innings. He was actually better at home than on the road (2.40 ERA at home, 3.23 ERA on the road). Corbin earned the final spot on my ballot with the best season of his career, just in time to cash in on free agency.
My Ballot: AL MVP
1. OF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
2. OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
3. 3B Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
4. 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
5. 3B Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
6. SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
7. SP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
8. SP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
9. DH J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
10. SP Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
The BBWAA top 3 (not in order):
· OF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
· 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
· OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
When the final three players for AL MVP were announced on Monday, there was plenty of criticism from traditional baseball fans because J.D. Martinez is not a finalist. We won’t know until next week if he finished in the top five or top seven or top ten, but we do know he didn’t finish in the top three and the talking heads on MLB Network were not happy.
Man why can’t we let the players get what they deserve in baseball? JD Martinez not in the final three of league MVP voting is a disgrace to the game!! As far as I’m concerned he deserves the award along with his teammate Mookie Betts! 330avg/130 rbis/111 runs/43 Hrs #W.S.Champs
— Frank Thomas (@TheBigHurt_35) November 6, 2018
For much of baseball history, Martinez would have been the easy choice. He led the league in RBI, was second in home runs and batting average, and third in runs scored. No question, he had the offensive numbers. In the past, that would have been more than enough to win the MVP award.
The times they are a-changing, though, and Martinez, despite his impressive offensive season, wasn’t as valuable as all-around players Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, and Alex Bregman. The BBWAA had Ramirez among the top three, with Betts and Trout. I had Bregman just above Ramirez, along with Betts and Trout.
In addition to my top four of Betts, Trout, Bregman and Ramirez, I put Matt Chapman, Francisco Lindor, Blake Snell and Justin Verlander ahead of Martinez. He was ninth on my ballot, with his teammate on the Red Sox, Chris Sale, taking the final spot.
Defense and base running matter and that’s where Martinez comes up short. He played 57 games in the outfield, poorly, and the rest of the time at DH. I believe the good, all-around players mentioned above were more valuable than Martinez. Also, I don’t penalize players for playing on a non-playoff team and I have no problem putting pitchers among the top-10 if I feel they’re better than some hitters.
For me, Betts and Trout were on a tier of their own, with Betts ultimately getting the nod. Then there was the Bregman, Ramirez, Chapman tier, with Lindor rounding out my top six. For all of the hand-wringing about J.D. Martinez not being among the three finalists, we should remember that winning the MVP award is what really matters. Five years from now, people will remember who won the award, but won’t remember who finished third, sixth, or eighth.
Dan Plesac, on MLB Network, believes Betts and Martinez should be 1 and 1A in AL MVP voting. I don’t see an argument that Martinez comes close to Mookie Betts. Betts had a higher batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage than Martinez. His 185 wRC+ was significantly better than Martinez’ 170. He also added value through base running and on defense, while Martinez gave away value on the bases and in the field, when he wasn’t DH-ing.
Martinez did one thing better than Betts, hit home runs. He also led Betts in RBI, but that was really about where they were in the batting order. Betts primarily batted leadoff, which allowed him to tie for the league lead in runs scored. Martinez batted third and fourth, which allowed him to lead the league in RBI. Scoring runs and driving in runs are very dependent on the lineup around you.
When the AL MVP Award is officially announced next Thursday, I believe Martinez will finish in the top-five. I also think Oakland’s Khris Davis could slip into the top-ten because he led the AL in homers and was second in RBI. I expect some old-school voters will give him enough support based on his terrific power numbers.
My Ballot: NL MVP
1. SP Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
2. OF Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
3. SP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
4. SP Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
5. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. 1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
7. OF Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers
8. SS Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
9. SP Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
10. 3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
The BBWAA top 3 (not in order):
· Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
· Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
· Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Yep, starting pitcher Jacob deGrom is my NL MVP. His season was extraordinary and, in my opinion, fully worthy of being named the most valuable player in the National League. Christian Yelich is an easy second choice. I believe he will win the BBWAA vote next Thursday. If not for deGrom, Yelich would be a slam-dunk choice for me.
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In his first year with the Brewers, Yelich led the league in batting average and slugging percentage and was third in on-base percentage. He also finished second in the league in runs and RBI and third in the league in home runs. He essentially did everything a hitter could do. He even finished in the top 10 with 22 steals. No qualifying hitter was particularly close to his 166 wRC+.
After deGrom and Yelich, I slotted in two more pitchers, Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer, ahead of my second hitter, Paul Goldschmidt. When looking at the different versions of WAR, deGrom, Yelich, Nola and Scherzer were generally in the 7-8 WAR range, with the rest of the hitters on my list in the 5-6 WAR range. My top four were also among the best in the league in Win Probability Added.
The players I have in the 5th through 8th spots on my ballot were all on the same tier. My order ended up being Goldschmidt, Freeman, Cain and Baez, but they were close enough that they could have been in any order. My final two spots went to teammates on the Rockies, Freeland and Arenado. Even they could have been swapped.
Next. The Free Agent All Star Team. dark
As for Baez and Arenado, who are both among the three finalists for NL MVP, I have them as my fifth and sixth-best hitters, but behind four pitchers. Baez and Arenado have the HR/RBI numbers to appeal to traditional voters. Arenado led the league in dingers, with Baez finishing tied for sixth. Baez led the league in RBI, with Arenado finishing tied for second. They both had great years, but were further down the my ballot than the BBWAA ballot.