The MLB free agency All-Star team

There’s enough talent available on the MLB free agency open market these days to stock a winner…it’s just a question of money

The mega MLB free agency class of 2018-2019 has been touted for years as the one with everything. It’s so deep that even large-market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers spent the past several years strategizing how to reset their payrolls under the luxury tax just to be able to splurge on the upcoming crop.

Now that crop is here, and the bidding is guaranteed to be intense.

With good reason. Eleven future free agents qualified to play in the 2018 All-Star game, as did the World Series MVP.

The class obviously is led by outfielder Bryce Harper, formerly of the Washington Nationals, and infielder Manny Machado, traded in mid-season from the Orioles to the Dodgers. Both are just 25, ratcheting up their value on the open market.

But it doesn’t stop there. Need a left-handed starter? You can choose from among J.A. Happ, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin, who put together a combined 47-27 record.  The market for right-handers is a bit more chancy, but if a team is willing to gamble ever so slightly, Nathan Eovaldi or Matt Harvey are both available. Charlie Morton is in his mid-30s, but coming off the two best seasons of his career.

Craig Kimbrel leads a large group of potential closers on a market that also includes Zach Britton.

If it’s power you need, look over Josh Donaldson, Michael Brantley or Nelson Cruz.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the best of the class. Assemble this team if you want…it’s just a matter of cash.

First Base

Top to bottom, this is the weakest free agent position. Teams seeking an upgrade there, though, will have the option of setting their sights on the reigning World Series MVP.

Steve Pearce earned that distinction at, for him, the most financially propitious moment. Following a perfectly acceptable season at the plate – a .284 combined batting average for the Blue Jays and Red Sox – his four World Series hits included three home runs with 8 RBIs. That translated to a 1.167 slugging average, a 1.667 OPS, and the hardware.

Pearce is coming off a contract that paid him $6.25 million, so he’s likely to remain financially attractive. Here’s a comparison of the 2018 salaries and WAR of all AL first basemen getting at least 250 plate appearances:

Name, bWAR, Salary
Steve Pearce, 1.5, $6.25M
Greg Bird, -0.6, $582K
Jake Bauers, 0.6, $548K
Justin Smoak, 2.3, $4.125M
Chris Davis, -2.8, $23M
Jose Abreu, 1.7, $13M
Yonder Alonso, 1.6, $7M
Joe Mauer, 1.2, $23M
John Hicks, 0.2, $551K
Lucas Duda, 0.3, $3.5M
Yuli Gurriel, 2.2, $12.4M
Matt Olson, 4.3, $548K
Ryon Healy, -0.6, $550K*
Albert Pujols, 0.5, $27M
Ronald Guzman, 0.7, $550K*
*Estimated

While it’s theoretically possible to stumble into a Matt Olson – a big production, low salary guy – Pearce returns solid value. He had the sixth best production as measured by WAR in exchange for slightly less than the $8.15 positional salary average.

Pearce isn’t likely to be a transformative piece, but he’ll be a solid contributor.

Second Base

At 34, Jed Lowrie probably won’t command more than a two-year deal, and he may have to wait for that. Given his recent experience with the Athletics, he’s likely to be worth the wait for a team needing second base help.

The last three seasons, Lowrie has hit consistently in the .270 range, and he’s done so with developing power. He hit 23 home runs in 2018, a career high, and his OPS has topped .800 the last two years. The only other AL second baseman to top an .800 OPS in both seasons was a pretty good one, Jose Altuve. His offensive numbers are a prime reason why Lowrie made the 2018 American League All Star team.

Like Pearce, Lowrie also figures to be economical, at least by free agent standards. He made $6 million in 2018, in return for which he took a career-high 680 plate appearances. That was eighth in the American League and among the majors’ top 20.

Although age will be a problem — Lowrie turns 35 in April – it’s at least a young 35. For much of his career he was viewed as an infield spare tire; as a consequence, he has only four seasons of playing more than 100 games and getting more than 400 plate appearances.

The alternatives to Lowrie are D.J. LeMahieu or Daniel Murphy. Although Murphy has even more wear and tear, he also brings a more productive history. LeMahieu is only 30, but his 88 OPS+ doesn’t exactly ring as an endorsement.

Shortstop

Obviously the gold standard at this position is Manny Machado, and while chasing him will be pricey, the gain may be worth it. Machado is just 25, and he carries a career .822 OPS. In fact as good as 2018 was – 37 home runs, 107 RBIs – his .273/.338/.487 slash line merely mirrored his career .282/.335/.825.

That means that with Machado, there is every reason to believe you’ll actually get what you pay for.

He is a four-time All-Star who proved in 2018 he could at least play shortstop efficiently, if not at an elite level.

Still, there are concerns. His commitment to hustle is the most talked about, and teams in the running for him will have to determine whether that presents any issues either on the field or in the clubhouse.

After a bit of a 2017 wobble, his WAR rating rebounded last year to 5.7, combining his service with both the Orioles and Dodgers. Among position players, that total didn’t quite crack the majors top 10, but it was close. At the same time, Machado was one of only seven players last year to take part in 162 games, and he ranked third –behind only Francisco Lindor and Justin Turner – in plate appearances with 709.

Only two players –Whit Merrifield and Freddie Freeman – had more hits than Machado’s 188 and only three – J.D.Martinez, Christian Yelich and Lindor – accounted for more total bases.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas has been down this free agent road before. He hopes his second experience is better than his first.

As a 2017-18 free agent, Moustakas turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Royals, sat unclaimed on the market well into March, and then finally re-signed with the Royals for one-third of what he had been offered a few months before.

This second time around, Moustakas hopes the market for third base talent has softened. Although 2018 was not a great year by his personal standards, it was a competent one. He hit .251 in combined play for the Royals and Brewers, with a .315 on base average, 28 home runs and 95 RBIs.

While it would be a stretch to characterize Moustakas as a key player in the Brewers’ post-season run, he did do his part, including a .364 average in the NLDS victory over the Colorado Rockies. Things went rougher, though, in the NLCS, when the Dodgers held him to just four hits and one RBI in 29 at bats.

Moustakas is 30, and is likely to seek what he sought last winter, a big-money, multi-year deal. If teams remain wary, the alternative may be Josh Donaldson, who is two years older and more injury-prone.

Outfield

The bidding for Bryce Harper should be fascinating to watch. A seven-year veteran at age 25, he has the reputation of a virtual one-man team, prompting the anticipated bidding on him to begin north of $30 million per year for only a few less years than the earth’s life expectancy.

His record fully justifies that – sometimes. In 2015, Harper was the National League’s Most Valuable Player, with 42 home runs, 99 RBIs, a .330 batting average and a 1.109 OPS.  Again in 2017, he hit .319 with 29 home runs, 87 RBIs, and a 1.008 OPS. He is a pitcher’s worst nightmare, so much so that they often refuse to pitch to him. Harper has three times drawn more than 100 bases on balls, including a league-leading 130 in 2018.

But he can also be inconsistent.  Harper hit just .243 in 2016, and just .249 in 2018, hardly the numbers justifying talk of a $30 million per year contract. His WAR perhaps best illustrates the range of possibilities: from 1.1 in 2014 to 10.5 in 2015, then down to 1.5, back up to 4.7, and down again to just 1.3 in 2018.

Harper is a six-time All-Star, and 2012 Rookie of the Year in addition to his 2015 MVP.

Outfield

If Harper wasn’t in the mix, Arizona’s A.J. Pollock would be the class of the outfield free agent group. He rebounded from an injury-plagued 2016 to produce a pair of solid if not spectacular seasons, averaging .273 with 35 home runs and 114 RBIs in 2017-18.

Those numbers are off his pre-injury peak of 20 homers and a .315 average in 2015. But a team needing an outfielder with some power is likely to look favorably on Pollock’s reliability. He possesses the additional advantage of being able to play center field.

The closest free agent comp to Pollock is Adam Jones, who at age 32 produced a .281 season for the Orioles. Surviving all of 2018 in Baltimore ought to get Jones some credit in itself, but he chipped in 15 homers and 63 RBIs, a total that was better than it sounds given the incompetence of the Orioles offense.

The Orioles non-tendered Jones, who made $17.3 million in 2018, but there remain rumors that they are interested in bringing him back. Jones famously declined several trade offers, and if his desire truly is to remain in Baltimore the possibility exists that the player and team might work something out at a figure less than the $17.9 million qualifying offer.

If not, Jones is likely to command some sort of multi-year deal.

Outfield

Michael Brantley is worth a gamble.

Granted, he’s been injury prone. He lost almost all of 2016 and half of 2017, but established last season that he could still play full-time at a quality level. Brantley batted .309 in 143 games for the Indians. And he is just 31 now, suggesting he still has some good seasons ahead of him.

Brantley’s 2018 season marked a return to his pre-2016 form. His .309 average is right in line with his career .305 mark, while his .364 on base and .468 slugging averages were better than his .351 and .430 career averages in those categories.

All of that was good enough to qualify Brantley for his third All-Star team, and it all also might make one wonder why the Indians didn’t extend him a qualifying offer. Short on outfield punch, they presumably have concluded they can replicate his production for less than the $17.9 million he would have cost had he accepted the offer.

Nick Markakis is the senior citizen version of Brantley.  The former Atlanta right fielder is two years older, but his numbers – a .297/.366/.440 slash line and .806 OPS —  were comparable. Markakis hit 14 home runs but drove in 93 for the 2018 Braves, his best offensive season in several years.

Right-handed starter

The top of the line roster is dotted with potential value but also potential question marks. Nathan Eovaldi, one year removed from arm surgery, looked brilliant in the second half for the Red Sox and also during the World Series.  But any faith in him will have to be constructed first on his 6-7 record and 3.81 ERA across just 111 innings for the Rays and Red Sox. Is that enough evidence to justify a big contract.

Following his trade to Cincinnati, Matt Harvey at least established that he was not finished as a starter. He went 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 24 starts. That’s competent, but it is a far cry level from the “Dark Night” days of a few seasons back.

Charlie Morton had a 15-3 record and 3.13 ERA in 30 starts and 167 innings for the Astros, a solid performance line. But he will be 35 when the 2019 season starts. That latter number may have scared off the Astros when they pondered whether to give him a qualifying offer – they didn’t – and it remains to be seen whether it will dampen enthusiasm elsewhere for a pitcher whose last two seasons have been the two best of his career.

Left-handed starter

There is legitimate depth among the available left-handed starters, including three of the only seven players this year to have received a qualifying offer. All three – Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Hyun-Jin Ryu – are expected to decline those offers.

Keuchel, who will be 31 next year, made a league-leading 34 starts and pitched 204.2 innings, so his durability is beyond question. His 12-11 record and 3.74 ERA may present concerns since they represent declines both from his 14-11 and 3.66 career averages and also from his 2017 marks of 14-5 and 2.90..

That may make Corbin the trendy pick. He went 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA across 33 starts and 200 innings for the Diamondbacks, and he is not yet 30.

Ryu was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA for the Dodgers, but he only made 15 starts.  His post-season performances, four starts and a 5.21 ERA, probably didn’t help his marketability, although that fact that Dave Roberts kept giving him the ball demonstrated that the Dodgers at least had faith in him.

A fourth excellent option will be J.A. Happ, coming off a 17-5 record and 3.65 ERA for the Jays and Yankees. Since asserting himself as a valid rotation option in 2016, Happ has gone 47-21 in 88 starts. The only downside: He’s now 36, so a two-year or at most a three-deal is probably the best he can hope for.

Closer

Kimbrel is a veteran of three consecutive All Star teams with the Red Sox, having compiled eight consecutive seasons of 30 or more saves. His .995 WHIP for 2018 was a bit off his career .920 average, but he’s only 30 and closer performances typically bounce a bit because their limited innings workload don’t allow the law of averages to take full effect.

Still, the easiest thing in the world for a putative contender to do is persuade itself that it is just one closer away from a championship, and Kimbrel has the credentials. He is a four-time saves leader.

Behind Kimbrel, the roster of options is deep. It includes Andrew Miller, late of Cleveland, Zach Britton, formerly of the Orioles and Yankees, and David Robertson, another former Yankee. Only Britton has been a former full-time closer, but as a group the three allowed just 106 hits in 144.1 innings of work spread across 147 games. Miller and Robertson will be 34 next year but Britton will be only 31.

Those willing to take a chance on something likely to be less costly can pick between Adam Ottavino and Jeurys Familia.  In 72 innings or the Mets and Athletics, Familia had a 3.13 ERA with 18 saves. Ottavino has never been a full-time closer, but he got a taste of it in 2018, saving six games for the Rockies. His 2.43 ERA was the best of his career, and he achieved it while working 77.2 innings in the worst pitching environment in baseball.

Others of note

By any measure, the most versatile free agent on the market will be Marwin Gonzalez. For the 2018 Astros, Gonzalez played at least 20 games in the outfield, at first, second and short. Versatility is a marketable trait in these days of 13-man pitching staffs.

Gonzalez‘  value may be reduced by his offensive numbers, which did fall off from 2017. He batted just .247 with a .324 on base and .409 slugging, none of those better than the league average. He will be 30 next year, but that’s not too young for a versatile and competent, if not overpowering, bat.

If you want an overpowering bat, and are willing to stick him at DH on a short-term deal, then Nelson Cruz is your guy. Cruz turns 39 in mid-season next year, but his 37 home runs and 97 RBIs for Seattle last season suggest he may not be slowing down much. Cruz’s problem is the limited market for a 39-year-old DH, even a powerful one.

At 31, Evan Gattis skews a bit younger. And in a pinch he can catch or play first base as well as DH. Gattis’ problem is that his production took a big hit in 2018, his batting average falling from .263 to .226 and his OPS from .767 to .736.

That’s one take on a team consistingly completely of players in MLB free agency. What do you think? Any choices you would have made different? Comment below!