Considered a likely American League MVP candidate, Boston Red Sox star J.D. Martinez was conspicuous by his absence from the finalists ranks Monday. What happened?
It didn’t take long following release of the names Monday of the three American League Most Valuable Player finalists for the reaction to build: Where in heck is Boston Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez?
Martinez was not included among the three finalists even though he had more hits, more home runs and more RBIs than any of the nominees. Those finalists are Martinez’s Boston teammate, Mookie Betts, plus Los Angeles Angels perennial Mike Trout and Cleveland Indians infielder Jose Ramirez.
Social media in Boston erupted in anger at the perceived overlooking of the World Series champions’ offensive centerpiece. But it wasn’t alone. USA Today headlined its Tuesday morning coverage of the announcement, “The MLB world was stunned over J.D. Martinez’ snub.” It quoted a tweet from Hall of Famer Frank Thomas to the effect that the omission of Martinez was “a disgrace to the game.”
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While the BBWAA doesn’t include explanations behind its decisions – this is, after all, a vote rather than a deliberative process – we can reasonably speculate what was at the root of it. Three explanations seem plausible:
1. Martinez was essentially a designated hitter, meaning – in some eyes — he was essentially a one-dimensional player. No player whose primary position was DH has ever been elected MVP, and only a handful – most recently Victor Martinez, the distant runner-up to unanimous 2014 MVP Trout – have come close. Thomas, by the way, was a two-time MVP – in 1993 and 1994 – but both years his primary position was first base. He moved primarily to DH in 1998.
2. Martinez’ cause was damaged by the presence of his teammate Betts as a fellow candidate. Indeed, Betts is the prohibitive favorite to win the award. By this theory, there is an effective cap on the support allocable to members of any one team, and Betts got the Boston share. Put another way, if Mookie Betts is MVP, then J.D. Martinez can’t be.
3. Martinez lost the WAR. At +6.4, he finished only ninth in Wins Above Replacement and only seventh among non-pitchers. The three finalists finished first, second and tied for fourth in WAR.
Assuming any or all of those arguments sank Martinez’ case, how valid are they? Looking strictly at the numbers, did the Boston slugger merit inclusion among the American League’s three best players this season.
I believe there are two valid and objective ways to answer that question. The first is to create an ordinal ranking based on the most important offensive categories. Defense is excluded in this method primarily out of fairness to Martinez. One might argue what constitutes a “most important” category, but this system considers 10: plate appearances, hits, home runs, RBIs, batting average, on base average, slugging average, WAR, OPS and OPS+. A player receives five points for leading the league in the category, three for being second, and one for finishing third. The three players with the most cumulative points based on those ordinal ranks “deserve” to be MVP finalists
Applying that standard, here’s how the top three MVP candidates ought to have shaken out:
- Mookie Betts, 24 points (first in batting average, slugging average and WAR, second in on base average, OPS and OPS+).
- J.D. Martinez, 20 points (first in RBIs, second in hits, home runs, batting average and slugging average, third in on base average, OPS and OPS+).
- Mike Trout, 19 points (first in on base average, OPS and OPS+, second in WAR, third in slugging average).
By this system, Ramirez plainly is the undeserving interloper. Not only is he not among the top three overall, he receives zero ordinal points, having finished no higher than fourth in any of the 10 categories.
But ordinal ranks don’t provide a precise measure of value. To do that, we need a system that measures the day-to-day, at bat-to-at bat, batter vs. pitcher grind. Such a system, which has been reviewed on this page previously, is not complicated: divide total bases by plate appearances, and calculate the percentage of batter “wins” in such matchups. For pitchers, substitute total bases allowed for total bases, and substitute batters faced for plate appearances, Also, because pitchers are trying to keep people off base — not let them get on – it is necessary to reverse the polarity of their percentage; i.e., Blake Snell’s 254 bases allowed in 719 batters faced would score as .647, not .353.
When you do that, this is the American League’s top 10:
Player PA/BF Bases Pct
1. Mike Trout 608 428 .704
2. Mookie Betts 612 421 .688
3. J.D. Martinez 646 426 .659
4. Blake Snell 719 254 .647
5. Trevor Bauer 712 259 .636
6. Jose Ramirez 694 435 .627
7. Gerrit Cole 815 311 .618
8. Corey Kluber 861 331 .616
9. Justin Verlander 843 326 .613
10. Alex Bregman 702 423 .603
This is the bottom line: J.D. Martinez did get jobbed by the MVP voters. Not by his teammate, and not by Trout. He got snubbed in favor of Jose Ramirez, who had a fine season, but not one that deserved to be rated ahead of Martinez.