Colorado Rockies: Bryce Harper should be the top priority this offseason

The Colorado Rockies reached Rocktober for the second straight season in 2018, but their disappearing offense caused them to be swept in the NLDS. Due to this, a certain superstar free agent should be their number one offseason target.

Bryce Harper will command a salary that will take many of the small-medium market teams off of his potential destinations list. Even though the Colorado Rockies had the highest payroll in franchise history last season, it is possible for the team to add Harper this offseason if they are willing to slightly increase the payroll for next season.

According to Spotrac, the Rockies finished last season with a payroll of $144 million. This put the team 13th in the MLB in terms of team payroll. As a comparison to their division mates, they were $62 million below the San Francisco Giants, $56 million below the Los Angeles Dodgers, $2 million above the Arizona Diamondbacks, and $43 million above the San Diego Padres.

For 2019, the Rockies already have $87 million committed (including the $1.5 million buyout of the 2019 team option for Gerardo Parra). After arbitration estimates are added, the Rockies will likely have $133 million committed. To fill out the remainder of the 25-man roster with players already within the organization, the payroll would likely increase to roughly $140 million.

Even if the Rockies were willing to increase their payroll to $150 million, that would obviously not leave enough room to sign Harper. However, if a quartet of relievers is able to be traded, it could create the needed room. This quartet includes Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn.

These four relievers will combine to earn $42 million in the 2019 season. Although it would hurt to lose a closer in Davis that set a franchise saves record with 43 during 2018, the Rockies already have a former closer in Seunghwan Oh under contract for only $2.5 million. After all, the team has shown a willingness to move on from closers when Greg Holland left in free agency after tying the franchise record in saves with 41 during 2017.

Outside of Davis, the Rockies front office would likely need to get creative to move the other three relievers. For example, in 2018, McGee allowed 39 runs through 51.1 innings, Shaw allowed 43 runs through 54.2 innings pitched, and Dunn allowed 17 runs through 17.0 innings pitched. However, as these three pitchers have had previous success and two of them are left-handed, there may be teams willing to take a chance on adding one of the relievers.

Even though Davis holds an $18 million salary for 2019, $17 million for 2020, and a $15 million mutual option for 2021 that can vest into a player option, his end to the 2018 season may make him highly coveted. During his final 18 appearances, the Rockies went 17-1 as Davis allowed only 1 earned run, 7 hits, and 2 walks.

Nonetheless, even though Davis only allowed 61 runs through his first 5 seasons as a primary reliever (2012, 2014-17), he allowed 31 runs alone in 2018 as he had an up and down season. Due to this, it could be the perfect time for the organization to move on from a contract that may hurt the 2020 and 2021 Rockies.

Outside of Davis, these relievers did not add value to the 2018 team. With Scott Oberg, Chris Rusin, Chad Bettis, and Oh already under contract for 2019, this group would most likely perform the same, if not show improvements, as replacements for the aforementioned relief quartet.

If the organization is able to move these four relievers, it could leave them with roughly $50 million to spend during this upcoming offseason. This could theoretically leave $30 million for Harper’s salary with $20 million left over to make competitive offers to DJ LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino.

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The starting rotation is all but set with Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray, and Antonio Senzatela all under team control for 2019. The offense will also have Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta, and David Dahl under team control. Due to this, focusing on adding another impact bat over an impact starting pitcher or reliever could be the right move for the Rockies.

The Rockies would give Harper a great chance of reaching the playoffs Rocktober for many years to come with their solid, young starting pitching staff and their normally potent lineup. Even though Story, Freeland, and Marquez will eventuslly command higher salaries through arbitration, the Rockies will see decreases as Iannetta’s $4.2 million removes after 2019 and Desmond’s $15 million turns into $8 million in 2021 during the last year of his contract. These two upcoming expiring contracts could help alleviate future payroll concerns.

Signing Harper, Ottavino, and LeMahieu this offseason would also give the Rockies a phenomenal chance at re-signing Arenado. After all, his projected $26.1 million arbitration salary was already factored in to the payroll numbers above, so a long-term contract for Arenado (with a $26-28 million annual value) would not be out of the question.

Next. Colorado Rockies 2018 Season Review. dark

Although it is a long-shot that the Rockies would be able to trade the full salaries of Davis, McGee, Shaw, and Dunn while also signing Harper, LeMahieu, and Ottavino for a combined $50 million or less, the following could be an example of the 25-man roster if this can be accomplished:

Starting Pitchers: Freeland, Marquez, Anderson, Gray, and Senzatela
Relief Pitchers: Oh, Ottavino, Oberg, Bettis, Rusin, Yency Almonte, Jeff Hoffman
Lineup: Blackmon, LeMahieu, Harper, Arenado, Story, Dahl, Desmond, Iannetta
Bench: Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Tony Wolters, Noel Cuevas

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