New York Mets: Signing Andrew Miller and Building a Bullpen
The New York Mets are making the right decision by targeting Andrew Miller on the free agent market. Miller will help the team continue to thrust themselves into modern-day baseball.
Rookie general manager of the New York Mets, Brodie Van Wagenen, has not been shy about discussing his goals of improving his club’s roster for the 2019 season.
The Amazins’ have been tied to rumors dealing with some of the market’s biggest free agents and have even discussed the possibility of promoting Peter Alonso or Tim Tebow to the big league club right out of spring training.
Personally, I believe that we will see Peter Alonso play at Citi Field before Tim Tebow, with neither player starting the year in Queens, but the club does seem to have their eyes set on making a splash in the free agent reliever market.
The New York Mets have arguably been stuck in the past during this new age of baseball. Their current interest in relievers seems to show that they are trying to catch up with the rest of the league. The Milwaukee Brewers made it to the NLCS with hitting and their bullpen. In my opinion, the Mets could be competitive in 2019 if they have a “Brewers-esc” bullpen and another dominant season from their starting pitchers. With that pitching juggernaut built, the club should be able to hit just enough to win games, while out pitching their opponents.
With that said, the team now has to find a way to improve their bullpen. They seem to be turning their attention to a versatile top-tier arm who had a 2018 season marred with injuries.
LHP: Andrew Miller, IP:34/ERA:4.24/WHIP:1.38/ERA+:1.04
Rumors started to swirl when Joel Sherman of the New York Post first linked Andrew Miller to the New York Mets. Jon Morosi of MLB Network then followed up on that by tweeting that a source indicated that the Mets have expressed a strong interest in the free agent left-hander, citing a close relationship with his former pitching coach and the Mets’ current manager, Mickey Callaway. The story continued to develop as SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the Mets have requested Miller’s medicals.
Andrew Miller would be a great addition to the New York Mets. His presence will help some of their younger arms, and he should be able to help Mickey Callaway shut down games in the late innings.
Miller’s unorthodox use started this “new age of bullpening” and his addition to the New York Mets will be extremely valuable as they continue to change their culture.
Andrew Miller has the track record of being able to dominate against right and left-handed batters.
This versatility is valuable as teams search for pitchers to perform in high leverage spots. These high leverage spots don’t just appear at the end of games. Miller has shown that he can close games, throw up a zero in the middle innings, or even throw multiple innings.
The only role that Miller has yet to fill is that of an opener, as teams like the Tampa Bay Rays even believe that high leverage spots can occur at the beginning of games.
Before signing the decorated reliever, the Mets need to make sure that he is healthy. Miller missed time in 2018 with a hamstring injury and a left shoulder impingement. He also has been dealing with knee issues that date back to 2017.
It has been reported that Miller has been deemed as healthy, but the Mets are burned by injuries. The club needs to proceed with CAUTION. Andrew Miller can’t be extremely valuable if he is on the disabled list.
Let’s dive into the Amazins’ 2018 bullpen, and see how Miller could help improve their current roster situation.
The Inefficiencies and Inconsistencies of the Left-Handed Specialist
With longtime left-handed specialist, Jerry Blevins, set to leave the club through free agency, the New York Mets have yet another hole to fill. If healthy, Andrew Miller could fill that hole and also provide the Mets’ bullpen with a dominating presence, being much more than just a left-handed specialist.
Inconsistencies- Blevins’ Struggled Against Left-Handed Batters
Not to pick on Jerry Blevins, but left-handed specialists are beginning to look like a thing of the past.
Over the last few seasons, the Mets have often found themselves handicapped with Blevins’ lack of versatility. The soft-tossing lefty was strictly a left-handed specialist.
Even with that label, Blevins’ faired slightly better versus right-handed batters in 2018, directly contradicting his role on the club.
This can be clearly seen with opponents sOPS+’s against Blevins throughout the season (sOPS+ defined). RHBs produced a sOPS+ of 92 against Blevins, while LHBs produced a sOPS+ of113. These numbers show that left-handed batters faired significantly better (as 100 equals average) as compared to right-handed batters versus Jerry Blevins.
This inconsistency would be solved with the addition of Miller. Even if Miller “struggles” against lefties like Blevins did in 2018, his role is still justified as he is on the club to do more than just get left-handed batters out.
Inefficient: Blevins’ Roster Spot was Not Fully Optimized
Since 2016, Blevins has averaged .63 innings per game pitched. Over the past 3 years, Blevins always appeared in at least 64 games while never throwing more than 49 innings.
This one/two batter type of usage is not efficient in the modern game. Another pitcher who performs well against both lefties and righties could have had Blevins’ roster spot, pitched in more games, thus providing the Mets with more value.
Add this together with his inconsistencies and we have a roster spot that did not perform to full value.
When healthy, Miller has proven to be the type of arm that could fix these problems. Since 2015, Miller has averaged 1.04 innings per game pitched. When healthy, you can rely on him to get a tough lefty out, and still pitch to the following batters.
This would then clear the need of carrying a left-handed specialist, allowing the Mets to have another arm to add depth within the bullpen. While left-handed specialists add value by winning a game or two, a deep bullpen could help win the season.
Seth Lugo and Andrew Miller add Versatility to the Mets’ Bullpen
In this era of Josh Hader/ Andrew MiIller types of usage, teams are searching for relievers who can get through a high leverage situation, not just record a singular high leverage out.
As before mentioned, this requires relievers to be able to pitch against both right and left-handed batters. This ability allows managers to throw their relievers in more situations, thus getting more overall value.
The Mets already have one and a half relievers who fit this mold with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Both of these arms are set to be used out of the backend of the Mets’ bullpen in 2019 (I am not sold on Gsellman so he earns half the grade).
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In 2018, Lugo proved to be a very valuable “Andrew Miller” type of reliever, as he posted great platoon splits as a closer, setup man and multi-inning reliever. RHBs hit .245/.283/.350 off the Mets’ righty, while LHBs hit a mere .184/.259/.293. His opponents sOPS+’s came in at 76 for RHBs and 51 for LHBs.
Gsellman did not have as much success, but his platoon splits point in a similar direction. RHBs hit .279/.330/.358 and LHBs hit .216/.307.410. Even with those numbers, opponents only posted sOPS+s of 93 for RHBs and 94 for LHBs. It is reasonable to assume that Gsellman will have more success against right-handed batters in 2019 as he shouldn’t have to pitch in as many late game, high leverage situations, as a pitcher like Andrew Miller would likely fill that role.
Adding Miller together with Lugo should result in a nasty one-two punch to end games. Both arms can get righties and lefties out, throw multiple innings, and have experience closing games.
Imagine a Wild Card game scenario. With the duo of Lugo and Miller, the Mets could arguably make it a five-inning game. Mickey Callaway and Co. could have Lugo and Miller slated to slam the door from the sixth inning on.
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While Lugo’s skill isn’t in the same conversation as a healthy Andrew Miller, he certainly proved to be a reliever on the rise in 2018. A duo of the two, plus the addition of another arm could change the identity of the New York Mets bullpen. From perennially being a weak point, Brodie Van Wagenen has the opportunity to make the bullpen a strength for the New York Mets.