New York Yankees Rumors: Three free agents that should be avoided
By Paul Ashley
The New York Yankees are rumored to be interested in most of the top free agents available this offseason. However, some of these free agents should be avoided for the benefit of future Yankees teams.
The front office of the New York Yankees has been on a mission in recent years to reset their luxury tax penalties ahead of the 2019 offseason. Although it is likely that general manager Brian Cashman will have more freedom to sign free agents this offseason than he has had in recent years, the Yankees should not spend a large amount of money on big names.
According to baseball-reference, the Yankees have $103.8 million committed for the 2019 season. After estimated salary arbitration figures are factored in, the organization will roughly have $149.0 million committed for next season. Even though this number is far beneath the Boston Red Sox estimated committed salary of $210.0 million, it may hurt future Yankees teams to spend a large amount of money this offseason.
Currently, the only Yankees players under contract past this season are Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Aroldis Chapman. These players will combine to earn $87.34 million in 2020 and $51.2 million in 2021 (assuming the $5 million buyout of Ellsbury’s $21 million team option is selected). Although the organization does not have a lot of money committed for 2020 and beyond, there are numerous key players that will soon become free agents and numerous players that will soon enter their high paying arbitration years.
Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances, and Didi Gregorius will all be free agents following the 2019 season. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Chad Green will reach their first arbitration years after the 2019 season. Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, and Luke Voit will likely reach their first arbitration years after the 2020 season.
Luis Severino is a great example of why this could be significant for the Yankees. In 2018, Severino was in his last year of pre-arbitration years, and earned $604,975. In 2019, Severino is estimated to earn $5.1 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Even though this is not a huge impact to the payroll right now, Max Scherzer provides a great example of how quickly these numbers can increase during arbitration years.
In 2011, Scherzer earned $600,000 in his final pre-arbitration year. During his three arbitration-eligible years that followed, he earned $3.75 million in 2012, $6.73 million in 2013, and $15.53 in 2013. Due to these normal progressions, the Yankees are estimated to owe $53.5 million in arbitration salaries for 2021, $79.5 for 2022, and $78.5 for 2023. This figures will add up quickly alongside retaining soon-to-be free agents, signing new free agents, and issuing payments to Chapman and Stanton.
As the front office has made it clear that they do not want to consistently pay luxury tax penalties (as doing so provides additional money to their opponents), they need to avoid dishing out large, lengthy contracts this offseason that could impact the team down the road. Due to this, the following are three players the team should avoid during free agency this offseason.