Phillies: Playing the southpaw starters’ sweepstakes
With winter ahead for the Phillies, acquiring a left-hander for the rotation with a trade or a signing is a strong secondary need general manager Matt Klentak is hoping to accomplish before Jan.1 if he can.
Addressing a glaring hole:
While the Philadelphia Phillies have a handful of promising starters, they mostly have one thing in common: They are right-handers. But this offseason Klentak has many portsiders he could pursue. And even though this situation is basic, expect some unorthodox possibilities as well.
IN OTHER WORDS “The rules are changed now, there’s not any way to build a team today. It’s just how much money you want to spend. You could be the world champions and somebody else makes a key acquisition or two and you’re through.” – Whitey Herzog
In the rotation, the red pinstripes have Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, and three flamethrowers in different stages of development: Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta. Basically, a pitcher accumulates 60 to 90 starts before making an impact, and the three righties are between 46 to 76.
Opening 2019 with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Ranger Suarez and Cole Irvin have worked three and zero MLB starts respectively, so they are green. But these southpaws will spend most –if not all– of ’19 with the Allentown affiliate. Ergo, Klentak could either sign a free agent or deal prospects for a lefty.
The Seattle Mariners and the Arizona Diamondbacks control left-handers the higher-ups have interest in. As for free agents, two are seeking multi-year contracts, and one Japanese arm will soon be available. Ideally, a portsider would slot between Nola and Arrieta.
Early attention was on Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin, but they are both finesse pitchers. In other words, Keuchel has had some up-and-down seasons, but will Corbin also produce similar results?
While Keuchel and Corbin are familiar names, Yusei Kikuchi is the top Japanese hurler many organizations are considering. His NPL (Nippon Professional Baseball) team will be posting him by Dec.1, and he’ll have no shortage of suitors. Yes, Klentak will be among them.
As for a swap. Arizona has not achieved postseason glory, and Robbie Ray had a disappointing 162 after a sparkling 2017: 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. Regarding James Paxton, Seattle is taking calls, but their decision will depend on retooling or rebuilding after falling short of their championship aspirations.
Moving parts:
After tasting victory champagne, the Houston Astros and their free-agent stars could part ways. Keuchel, almost 31, has earned, at least, a three-summer pact, while Houston is pursuing Paxton from Seattle. On the other hand, Paxton has two campaigns of control, will cost less, and will improve a five-man staff.
For 2019, Paxton’s arbitration estimate is $9 million. He has a mid-90’s fastball and went 11-6 with a 3.76 ERA last season. Yes, he’s better than Arrieta and would slot behind Nola. But if the Mariners trade him, how big of a prospect haul will they expect?
Regarding the Snakes, they haven’t gone deep in the playoffs with their current roster and don’t have the financial resources to overcome their shortcomings. Granted, they could make one more run at the brass ring, but time is running out on keeping their stars together with free agency looming. So, do they move Ray?
Receiving an arbitration prediction of $6.1 million for ’19, Ray, 27, has two years of control remaining. Yes, he also has a mid-90’s heater, but he dropped off in 2018 with a 6-2 record and a 3.93 ERA. A strained right oblique disabled him for two months. But would they sell low on him?
Four-seam fastball comparisons:
- Paxton: 95.5 mph average and 97.7 mph maximum with a curveball, cutter and sinker.
- Ray: 93.7 mph average and 97.7 mph maximum with a slider and a curveball.
- Kikuchi: 93 mph average and 97.5 mph maximum with a slider and a curveball.
As for the wild card, Kikuchi, 27, has Scott Boras as his agent. And a national publication is projecting a six-summer contract of $42 million with an additional $8 million for the posting fee to the Seibu Lions of the NPL. But can the Phillies get him?
Unfortunately, Kikuchi has had recurring shoulder problems. He had missed 2010, and his 2013 ended early due to shoulder pain. In fact, he even had some shoulder issues last season but went 14-4 with a 3.08 ERA but no diminished velocity. Too risky?
Vacancies:
If trading doesn’t pan out, the Phils will still have the opportunity to sign an expensive –but relatively young– free agent. To illustrate, Corbin went 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA in ’18, and those numbers have him atop the starter’s market. Translation: One national site’s forecast is $129 million for six campaigns.
In his arsenal, Corbin features mostly a slider and sinker combination, but he also has a four-seam fastball and a curveball. So, was ’18 a career year or a breakout 162? Well, one franchise will be willing to pay for the privilege to find out, although six seasons will probably be too many for the Phillies.
For the ‘Stros, Keuchel went 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA in 2018. And the estimate for the southpaw is $82 million for four summers, but Klentak probably won’t go beyond a three-year commitment. However, the GM could offer three campaigns with a higher AAV (average annual value).
In his repertoire, Keuchel mostly relies on his sinker, but he also twirls a slider, cutter, changeup and four-seamer. But while Corbin is drawing the most attention, the former Astro may be less of a risk. At least, he’s had a handful of decent 162s as a track record.
To sum up, Klentak could miss on one left-hander but pick up another. Of course, he has enough young talent besides Scott Kingery and Sixto Sanchez to acquire Paxton or Ray. But if he swings a deal, which hurler should he trade for? Paxton.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Starters:
- Paxton, 30: 28 Gms., 160 1/3 Inn., 11-6, a 3.76 ERA, a 3.24 FIP, a 3.02 xFIP, a 2.96 SIERA, a 3.8 fWAR and a 1.10 WHIP.
- Ray, 27: 24 Gms., 123 2/3 Inn., 6-2, a 3.93 ERA, a 4.31 FIP, a 3.77 xFIP, a 3.89 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.
Japanese starter:
- Kikuchi, 27: 23 Gms., 163 2/3 Inn., 14-4, a 3.08 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.
Free-agent starters:
- Keuchel, almost 31: 34 Gms., 204 2/3 Inn., 12-11, a 3.74 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.84 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.6 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
- Corbin, 29: 33 Gms., 200 Inn., 11-7, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 2.61 xFIP, a 2.91 SIERA, a 6.3 fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.
Phillies Pitching stats:
Irvin, 24.5:
- Triple-A: 26 Gms. (1 relief), 161 1/3 Inn., 14-4, a 2.57 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.56 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP.
Suarez, 23:
- Phillies: 4 Gms. (1 relief), 15 Inn., 1-1, a 5.40 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.66 xFIP, a 4.74 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.80 WHIP.
- AAA: 9 Gms., 49 1/3 Inn., 2-0, a 2.74 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 4.16 xFIP and a 1.28 WHIP.
- AA: 12 Gms., 75 Inn., 4-3, a 2.76 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.
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