Phillies: Playing the southpaw starters’ sweepstakes

With winter ahead for the Phillies, acquiring a left-hander for the rotation with a trade or a signing is a strong secondary need general manager Matt Klentak is hoping to accomplish before Jan.1 if he can.

Addressing a glaring hole:       

While the Philadelphia Phillies have a handful of promising starters, they mostly have one thing in common: They are right-handers. But this offseason Klentak has many portsiders he could pursue. And even though this situation is basic, expect some unorthodox possibilities as well.

IN OTHER WORDS      “The rules are changed now, there’s not any way to build a team today. It’s just how much money you want to spend. You could be the world champions and somebody else makes a key acquisition or two and you’re through.” – Whitey Herzog

In the rotation, the red pinstripes have Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, and three flamethrowers in different stages of development: Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta. Basically, a pitcher accumulates 60 to 90 starts before making an impact, and the three righties are between 46 to 76.

Opening 2019 with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Ranger Suarez and Cole Irvin have worked three and zero MLB starts respectively, so they are green. But these southpaws will spend most –if not all– of ’19 with the Allentown affiliate. Ergo, Klentak could either sign a free agent or deal prospects for a lefty.

The Seattle Mariners and the Arizona Diamondbacks control left-handers the higher-ups have interest in. As for free agents, two are seeking multi-year contracts, and one Japanese arm will soon be available. Ideally, a portsider would slot between Nola and Arrieta.

Early attention was on Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin, but they are both finesse pitchers. In other words, Keuchel has had some up-and-down seasons, but will Corbin also produce similar results?

While Keuchel and Corbin are familiar names, Yusei Kikuchi is the top Japanese hurler many organizations are considering. His NPL (Nippon Professional Baseball) team will be posting him by Dec.1, and he’ll have no shortage of suitors. Yes, Klentak will be among them.

As for a swap. Arizona has not achieved postseason glory, and Robbie Ray had a disappointing 162 after a sparkling 2017: 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. Regarding James Paxton, Seattle is taking calls, but their decision will depend on retooling or rebuilding after falling short of their championship aspirations.

Vacancies:

If trading doesn’t pan out, the Phils will still have the opportunity to sign an expensive –but relatively young– free agent. To illustrate, Corbin went 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA in ’18, and those numbers have him atop the starter’s market. Translation: One national site’s forecast is $129 million for six campaigns.

In his arsenal, Corbin features mostly a slider and sinker combination, but he also has a four-seam fastball and a curveball. So, was ’18 a career year or a breakout 162? Well, one franchise will be willing to pay for the privilege to find out, although six seasons will probably be too many for the Phillies.

For the ‘Stros, Keuchel went 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA in 2018. And the estimate for the southpaw is $82 million for four summers, but Klentak probably won’t go beyond a three-year commitment. However, the GM could offer three campaigns with a higher AAV (average annual value).

In his repertoire, Keuchel mostly relies on his sinker, but he also twirls a slider, cutter, changeup and four-seamer. But while Corbin is drawing the most attention, the former Astro may be less of a risk. At least, he’s had a handful of decent 162s as a track record.

To sum up, Klentak could miss on one left-hander but pick up another. Of course, he has enough young talent besides Scott Kingery and Sixto Sanchez to acquire Paxton or Ray. But if he swings a deal, which hurler should he trade for? Paxton.

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Starters:

• Paxton, 30: 28 Gms., 160 1/3 Inn., 11-6, a 3.76 ERA, a 3.24 FIP, a 3.02 xFIP, a 2.96 SIERA, a 3.8 fWAR and a 1.10 WHIP.
• Ray, 27: 24 Gms., 123 2/3 Inn., 6-2, a 3.93 ERA, a 4.31 FIP, a 3.77 xFIP, a 3.89 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.

Japanese starter:

• Kikuchi, 27: 23 Gms., 163 2/3 Inn., 14-4, a 3.08 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.

Free-agent starters:  

• Keuchel, almost 31: 34 Gms., 204 2/3 Inn., 12-11, a 3.74 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.84 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.6 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
• Corbin, 29: 33 Gms., 200 Inn., 11-7, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 2.61 xFIP, a 2.91 SIERA, a 6.3  fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.

Phillies Pitching stats:

Irvin, 24.5:

• Triple-A: 26 Gms. (1 relief), 161 1/3 Inn., 14-4, a 2.57 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.56 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP.

Suarez, 23:

• Phillies: 4 Gms. (1 relief), 15 Inn., 1-1, a 5.40 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.66 xFIP, a 4.74 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.80 WHIP.
• AAA: 9 Gms., 49 1/3 Inn., 2-0, a 2.74 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 4.16 xFIP and a 1.28 WHIP.
• AA: 12 Gms., 75 Inn., 4-3, a 2.76 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.