MLB awards: Way-too-early 2019 award predictions
Now that all of the 2018 MLB awards have been given out, we take a shot at predicting who might be honored a year from now.
In order to ease baseball fans into the offseason and pass time until the hot stove begins, MLB gives out its awards throughout the first couple weeks of November. 2018 was a great season around the league, and we have had the pleasure of seeing baseball’s biggest stars rewarded for their efforts with MLB awards.
Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, each under 21 years of age, battled it out in the National League East and NL Rookie of the Year race. Acuna ended up taking home the hardware, but both players have tremendous futures ahead of them.
In the American League, Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani was named Rookie of the Year over Yankee youngsters Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. Although Ohtani’s rookie year was cut short by injuries, he displayed the unprecedented potential as a two-way player that made him a highly-coveted free agent last offseason.
Acuna’s manager, Brian Snitker, was named the National League Manager of the Year for leading the Atlanta Braves to their first division title since 2013. Meanwhile, Bob Melvin was named the American League’s top skipper for leading the Oakland Athletics throughout their magical 97-win season.
After winning two consecutive National League Cy Young Awards, Max Scherzer finished in second behind Jacob deGrom. Scherzer’s 300 strikeouts propelled him to a top-five finish for the sixth straight year, but deGrom’s historic 1.70 ERA was impossible to ignore.
In the junior circuit, 25-year-old Blake Snell took home the Cy Young Award over veterans Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. With just 180.2 innings pitched, Snell set the record for fewest innings pitched in an award-winning season.
Finally, Christian Yelich was named the National League’s Most Valuable Player after falling just short of the triple crown. His breakout year played a large role in the Milwaukee Brewers supplanting the Chicago Cubs atop the NL Central, and he was rightly rewarded for it.
The Boston Red Sox had a historic season, winning 119 games between the regular season and playoffs, and their leader, Mookie Betts, was rewarded for his efforts with the American League MVP Award. Betts’ first World Series ring is the real prize, but an MVP Award is a nice cherry on top.
Now, with 132 days until Opening Day, we take a shot at predicting who will be honored a year from now.
NL Rookie of the Year: Victor Robles, Washington Nationals
After Juan Soto came up short in the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year race, his teammate Victor Robles will win the award in 2019. Robles, a 21-year-old center fielder, will finally get his chance to be an everyday player in 2019.
Part of the reason that the Nats are not seen as desperate to re-sign Bryce Harper is because they have already have Robles within the organization. Even if Harper signs elsewhere, the Nats’ outfield will be in good shape.
As Washington’s top prospect and the fourth-ranked prospect in baseball, Robles has the potential to be one of the most exciting players in the league for years to come. He possesses 75-grade speed, which he utilizes both on the basepaths and in center field. In 2017, when he made his debut, he hit two triples in just 24 major league at-bats.
After earning a spot on the postseason roster with a strong cup of coffee in 2017, Robles was expected to make an impact in 2018. However, after hyperextending his elbow in early-April as a member of the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs, he did not make his major league season debut until September 4.
Robles started slow after getting his call to the big leagues in 2018, but eventually caught fire. When all was said and done, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three homers, three doubles, a triple, 10 RBI, and three stolen bases in 21 games.
With Harper likely out of the picture, Robles will finally get his shot and take full advantage of it.
AL Rookie of the Year: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
All Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did in 2018 was slash .381/.437/.636 across four levels of the minors. Widely regarded as the top prospect in baseball, Guerrero had an unbelievable 2018 season. However, he has yet to make his major league debut.
With Josh Donaldson now out of Toronto, third base is open for Guerrero. Brandon Drury is the Blue Jays’ next best third baseman, and he will likely start at the hot corner on Opening Day, but Guerrero should finally make his debut shortly thereafter. Three weeks into the regular season, once the deadline for the Blue Jays to be able to retain Guerrero for an extra year has passed, he should make his highly-anticipated debut.
Guerrero obviously cannot be expected to repeat his incredible 2018 campaign in the big leagues, but he should still be a productive bat. After all, even if his batting average drops 100 points, he would still hit .280.
The Blue Jays should not be expected to contend in 2019, considering they play in what is arguably baseball’s best division, but Guerrero is capable of helping them return to contention as quickly as possible.
Assuming Guerrero finally gets the call early in 2019, he is the frontrunner to be named American League Rookie of the Year.
NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell, Milwaukee Brewers
After falling short in the 2018 NL Manager of the Year race, Craig Counsell will finish on top in 2019. He led an underdog Brewers team to 96 wins, a division title, and game seven of the NLCS in 2018, and you can expect more of the same from the Milwaukee skipper in 2019.
Counsell’s staff will look much different in 2019 after losing pitching coach Derek Johnson, hitting coach Darnell Coles, and bullpen coach Lee Tunnell, but Counsell will find a way to make it work. It will not be easy, but it rarely is for small-market teams with big expectations.
Although the Brewers ultimately did not accomplish what they had hoped to, they still had a terrific season, which would not have been possible without Counsell at the helm. By implementing an unorthodox pitching strategy, including an “initial out-getter”, the Brewers were able to win 96 games with an underwhelming starting rotation.
The Brewers are expected to be aggressive this winter, just as they were a year ago, and should have an improved roster come Opening Day. With the experience gained in 2018 and new acquisitions from this offseason, the Brewers will once again reign supreme in the NL Central. However, this time, Counsell will be named the National League’s top skipper.
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics
After being named the American League Manager of the Year in 2018, Bob Melvin became just the eighth manager to win the award three times. In 2019, he will join Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox as the only managers to win the award four times.
Melvin led the A’s on a magical run that resulted in their first postseason appearance since 2014. They fell short, but that should not take away from their extraordinary season. Now, they will return a very similar roster in 2019.
If the A’s are able to add a starting pitcher or two this offseason, they will remain a force in the American League. A.J. Puk, their second-ranked prospect, should also make his major league debut in 2019 after missing all of last year recovering from Tommy John Surgery, which will help.
Dethroning the Astros atop the AL West is a tall task, especially for a team with as low a budget as the A’s, but Oakland will at least be in the running for a Wild Card spot.
With three Manager of the Year awards already under his belt, Melvin has a good shot at Cooperstown. A fourth would make him a virtual lock.
NL Cy Young: Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, a former second overall draft pick, made great strides in 2018, establishing himself as the Pirates’ ace. After spending three years under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, Taillon is finally coming into his own.
In 2019, Taillon’s age-27 season, he will continue to improve and establish himself as one of the top starters in the league. He has steadily improved in each of his first three seasons as a major leaguer, but 2019 will be his year to shine.
Although Taillon is not exactly a household name, he quietly had a very solid season in 2018. He had the ninth-best ERA and WAR among National League starting pitchers, both of which ranked higher than Cy Young vote-getter Jon Lester.
As Taillon approaches his prime and continues to work with Searage, he will only improve. He will also have a chance to work alongside Chris Archer for an entire season, which could be beneficial. Taillon had a nice first half, but he was dominant in the second half, after Archer arrived in Pittsburgh. There is no way to tell if there was any correlation, but having a veteran starter to lean on cannot hurt.
Taillon is an out of the box prediction, but he deserves to be in the conversation for the National League’s best starting pitcher.
AL Cy Young: Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
Trevor Bauer finished just outside the top-five in American League Cy Young voting in 2018, but he will continue to come into his own as he enters his prime. As a former first-round draft pick, Bauer’s talent has never been in question, but the results have not been quite there. That is, until 2018.
Bauer enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2018, as he posted the second-best FIP in the majors (first in the AL), second-best ERA in the AL, and third-best WAR among AL starting pitchers. Although he was not a finalist for the AL Cy Young Award, you could make the case that he deserved to be.
In 2019, Bauer should be able to improve even further. He certainly does not lack the talent and is among the most intelligent players in the league. It feels like he has been in the league forever, but he is still just 27 and entering his prime.
If the Indians trade Corey Kluber and/or Carlos Carrasco, as they are reportedly considering, Bauer will step into a larger role. Fortunately for Cleveland, he is capable of being an ace and may be the best pitcher in the American League in 2019.
NL MVP: Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
After breaking onto the scene in 2016, it appeared that Trea Turner would be one of the best players in the league almost immediately. His last two years have been a bit underwhelming by those standards, but he has still been a solid player for the Nats.
In 2018, Turner solidified his case as an elite shortstop, slashing .271/.344/.416 with 19 homers, 103 runs scored, 73 RBI, and a National League-leading 43 stolen bases while playing in all 162 games. He also finished in the top-ten in WAR among NL position players for the first time. This was a very good season for the 25-year-old infielder, but there is still room for improvement.
In 2019, Turner will break out and have his best year yet. He has a rare combination of speed and power, while also playing Gold Glove-caliber defense, which has led to Andre Dawson comparisons. If Turner can put it all together, he is more than capable of winning an MVP award.
There is no reason to believe that 2019 will not be Turner’s year. He now has a full season under his belt and has had an opportunity to adjust to life in the big leagues. The Nats’ lineup is also set up for him to succeed.
With Adam Eaton an entire year removed from his major leg injuries, he should be back to full-strength. If this is the case, he can be an excellent leadoff hitter ahead of Turner. This will give Turner as many RBI opportunities as possible.
Behind Turner, the Nats will have several run-producers, including Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Ryan Zimmerman, giving Turner plenty of opportunities to score.
To top it all off, Turner plays shortstop, a premier position, and plays it well. This only helps his case as MVP.
Turner has been trending in the right direction since debuting in 2015. This should continue, which could result in him being named the National League’s Most Valuable Player.
AL MVP: Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
In Alex Bregman‘s first full season in the majors, he was a World Champion; in his second full season, he was an All-Star; in his third full season, he could be an MVP. After finishing fifth in voting in 2018 as a 24-year-old, Bregman appears well on his way to eventually being named MVP.
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Bregman’s first full season in the bigs was a memorable one, as he slashed .284/.352/.475 with 19 homers. Then, in 2018, his WAR jumped by over four wins to 7.6, which was good for fourth in the majors.
In addition to raking, Bregman is a tremendous all-around player. He plays Gold Glove-caliber defense at the hot corner and can steal a base when needed. If he attempts a few more stolen bases, he could join the 20/20 club someday.
If anything is standing in Bregman’s way, it may be his teammates. On a team full of stars, it is easy to get overshadowed at times. Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander have each won an MVP Award, and several other Astros are more than capable.
Despite being just 24 years old, Bregman has accomplished more than most major leaguers. The next step could be winning an MVP Award.
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Time will tell how accurate these MLB awards predictions are. Let us know who you think will be taking home the hardware next year!