WEST PALM BEACH, FL - MARCH 07: Nick Neidert #87 of the Miami Marlins in action against the Houston Astros during a spring training game at Fitteam Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on March 7, 2018 in West Palm Beach, Florida. The Marlins defeated the Astros 7-6. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
JUPITER, FL – FEBRUARY 22: Nick Neiddert #87 of the Miami Marlins poses for a portrait at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on February 22, 2018 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
Never really getting the respect his numbers have allowed, could being a step away from the Miami Marlins rotation finally get Nick Neidert the notation he deserves?
With each of our top 10 prospect lists this offseason, we will have a scouting report on one player from that organization’s top 10 list. With our recent review of the Miami Marlins, we will take a look at right-hander Nick Neidert, the Marlins #3 prospect.
Player profile
Growing up in the Atlanta metro area, Nick Neidert got plenty of press and attention in high school, which led to him being a 2nd round selection by the Seattle Mariners. While he had a solid fastball in high school, he was knocked due to his filled-out frame at the point of his drafting, not really projecting to add a lot to his frame and therefore, likely not adding a lot to his velocity. Still, he was seen as a very mature pitcher at that time and expected to handle pro ball well.
Handle pro ball well would be an understatement. Neidert’s first assignment was with the Arizona Rookie League in his draft season, where he tossed 35 1/3 innings, posting a sparkling 1.53 ERA, with a 0.96 WHIP and a 9/23 BB/K ratio.
Neidert opened his first full pro season in extended spring training, jumping straight to low-A, where he dominated the Midwest League for Clinton. He made 19 starts, pitching 91 innings, with a 2.57 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 13/69 BB/K ratio.
Nick Neidert opened 2017 in the Cal League, a tough assignment for any pitcher, but he was able to do very well. He did struggle when he was pushed up to AA. His ERA in high-A to AA went from 2.76 to 6.56. Overall, even with those rough half-dozen starts in AA, Neidert still posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 127 2/3 innings with a 22/122 BB/K ratio.
The Mariners traded Neidert as part of the trade that brought Dee Gordon to Seattle from the Miami Marlins in December of 2017. Neidert was able to repeat the same league that gave him trouble at age 20 in 2017 and pitch tremendously well for Jacksonville in AA. He pitched 152 2/3 innings, with a 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 31/154 BB/K ratio.
Size/Delivery/Control
Size/Build – Nick Neidert is listed at 6’1″ tall with a listed weight of 180 pounds. He’s really maintained that size since being drafted, though he has shifted that weight from some “baby fat” coming out of high school to a very athletic build on the mound.
Delivery – Neidert has a very simple, easy delivery, but he does throw off hitters with some timing issues in his delivery for hitters. Neidert takes a gentle step back before lifting just short of waist high with his knee before coming toward the plate.
That slight leg lift goes into a bit of a hitch as he pushes toward the plate with his lead leg that can upset a hitter’s timing, as Neidert swings his leg back toward his back ankle just a touch before then going forward and releasing.
From the stretch, Neidert varies his direction to the plate only in how much of a “hitch” he has back toward his body once he has his slight leg lift. Other than that, he moves quickly to the plate, making it tough to run on him.
Neidert throws from a high 3/4 arm slot. He repeats that slot consistently, and his “hitch” in his delivery allows that arm slot to be hidden for just a moment.
Control (65) – His incredible ability to repeat his simple delivery allows Neidert to pound the zone with consistent arm slot and landing spot with his legs, but on top of the control excellence, he developed increasingly impressive command as the 2018 season bore on, which really allows his pitches to play up even further.
Pitches
Fastball (55) – Neidert’s fastball works 90-93 primarily with some excellent late life, especially when used at the top and bottom of the zone. His hitch leads to an appearance that he is jumping toward the plate, which gives his fastball appearance of more velocity than its peak 95-96 velo would register to hitters.
Change Up (65) – While he has built up his fastball command over the year, the movement on his change on top of that fastball command has made his change an incredible weapon, and arguably the top change in the entire Miami Marlins system.
Neidert throws his change in the mid-80s, consistently pounding 84 on the gun, ranging just slightly around that number (usually 83-85). However, what is incredible about the pitch is the way it just disappears at a point in its trajectory toward the plate. He gets tremendous drop on the change, and it leaves hitters swinging over the top consistently, giving Neidert a swing-and-miss offering.
Slider (50) – Very good pitch for Neidert in the middle to lower part of the zone to get weak contest as he has good late movement on the pitch, though it’s not tremendously sharp. He’s done well working to pound the zone with the pitch and really just needs to finish the development of the pitch further.
MLB Player Comp
They have very little similar physically, but Neidert and Minnesota Twins starter Kyle Gibson have very similar approaches on the mound, and for Gibson, using that approach has allowed him to experience significant success with that in 2018.
Gibson struggled for multiple years to establish himself with the Twins, but really the develpment of his fourth pitch is what has allowed Gibson to take the step forward from a below-league-average pitcher to a guy just a touch ahead of that mark. Projection-wise, Gibson is still set as a mid-rotation, league-average starter with 192 innings and a 2.6 fWAR projected by Steamer.
Gibson’s primary pitches are his sinker, change, and his slider. Right now, his pitch array sits very similar to what Neidert throws, even though Gibson throws his from a 6’6″, 220-pound frame.
Future role
Neidert presently is not far at all from a #5 starter, but simply adding another movement pitch would be big for him. Coming from his high 3/4 spot, a cutter would be a huge pitch or even a traditional 12/6 curve.
With a fourth pitch that adds a bit of movement, Neidert could project into a 3/4 starter that consistently gives a team 190+ innings of league-average or slightly-above-average performance in a rotation, something that is missing frequently now with guys who are throwing big fastballs but struggling with consistency and/or injury.
Next. Marlins 2019 top 10 prospects. dark
The Miami Marlins are going to likely have a young team and a team that has unpredictable players. With all that, a sure arm like Nick Neidert that could give the Marlins consistent quality innings would be a huge piece for their rotation.
